The daily 'points required' thread....

[Insel affe]

After a request from warmleyseagull here it is the daily "points required" thread...

20 games in 42 points achieved I think we need just 8 more points to be sure of safety and with 26 games left that is an average of just 0.1025641 per game well within our grasp...

What say you ?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

We are still on track for a win-at-home-draw-away 92 point finish.

50 points to go from the 26 games.

The countdown has started

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Good thread.

We need a list of points gained by teams finishing 2nd over a 46 game season since 3pts for a win came in. If we work out the mean then that will be the number of points needed in total this year for automatic promotion.

 

[Jimmehh]

Good thread.

We need a list of points gained by teams finishing 2nd over a 46 game season since 3pts for a win came in. If we work out the mean then that will be the number of points needed in total this year for automatic promotion.

Over the last 6 seasons, the mean (average) is 87 points for second place. 45 points from remaining 26 games! EASY

 

[Bob!]

Over the last 6 seasons, the mean (average) is 87 points for second place. 45 points from remaining 26 games! EASY

So...

If we get 87 points we'll definitely go up then!

 

[Jimmehh]

So...

If we get 87 points we'll definitely go up then!

Well no.. considering we got 89 and didn't last season, and 3 seasons ago, it took Burnley 93 points, it's in no way accurate.

But still, we'd be VERY unlucky to miss out two seasons in a row on the high 80 points. But, never say never.

 

[GT49er]

So...

If we get 87 points we'll definitely go up then!

Yep, works every time.................................oh!

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Over the last 6 seasons, the mean (average) is 87 points for second place. 45 points from remaining 26 games! EASY

This will probably be about right (within a point or two).

A little sobering that our excellent start to the season will count for nothing if we do not keep up almost the same form until the end...

 

[Nixonator]

This will probably be about right (within a point or two).

A little sobering that our excellent start to the season will count for nothing if we do not keep up almost the same form until the end...

Not quite, with our current form we'd be just shy of 100pts. We can afford a bigger blip in the 2nd half than we had in the 1st. Newcastle, Derby & Reading all home games with Norwich and Villa away.

 

[Peter Grummit]

 

[Insel affe]

Good thread.

We need a list of points gained by teams finishing 2nd over a 46 game season since 3pts for a win came in. If we work out the mean then that will be the number of points needed in total this year for automatic promotion.

Can we also knock off teams as they fall by the wayside and can't catch us....

 

[Peter Grummit]

89 points is the median over the last 20 years

 

[hans kraay fan club]

View attachment 80142

Not sure I entirely follow that chart. How are Newcastle more likely to make the top 2 than us, yet also more likely to miss out on the top 6?

 

[Peter Grummit]

Not sure I entirely follow that chart. How are Newcastle more likely to make the top 2 than us, yet also more likely to miss out on the top 6?

I was wondering that. It's very small margins, and as it's done on a multiple simulation basis I'm guessing there is a random factor in there. Either that, or our much lower 'loss' total but higher 'draw' total to date makes for a smaller range in outcomes than Newcastle.

PG

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Not sure I entirely follow that chart. How are Newcastle more likely to make the top 2 than us, yet also more likely to miss out on the top 6?

It is strange. Would make us tremendous value for the title if there really was essentially no difference between us and Newcastle...

 

[pasty]

89 points is the median over the last 20 years

Oh I like that one. Promoted with a couple of games to spare.

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Not quite, with our current form we'd be just shy of 100pts. We can afford a bigger blip in the 2nd half than we had in the 1st. Newcastle, Derby & Reading all home games with Norwich and Villa away.

I said "almost the same form"... I find it sobering and exciting in turns that we are very unlikely to ever get "clear" in second place. We will need to maintain almost the same level of point gathering achieved so far.

I certainly hope we don't end up needing a point at Villa...!!

 

[pasty]

I find it sobering and exciting in turns that we are very unlikely to ever get "clear" in second place.

Although...............A Brighton win and a Reading defeat tomorrow night would put us 8 points clear of second

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Although...............A Brighton win and a Reading defeat tomorrow night would put us 8 points clear of second

Indeed.

Just as an Albion defeat and a Reading win will see them TWO points behind us.

 

[pasty]

Indeed.

Just as an Albion defeat and a Reading win will see them TWO points behind us.

I know which I would bet on

Brighton Leeds double 4/1 Blackburn Reading double 13/1