[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

First jab appointment in a week, second in June. Bit of a faff - nearest centre is more than 20 miles away, and my first 5 attempts to book online were not done fast enough and my booking was no longer available after I confirmed it. I guess there are millions of duffers in their 60s all trying to make the same bookings today.

Also....initially the NHS site found my nearest centre to be 17 miles away, in Westcliffe. But the Westgate it found isn't 17 miles away, it's 65 miles away. The website has Westgate in Kent mixed up with Westgate in Essex. Lucky I spotted that (after I'd booked).

I pity the poor sods who are trying to book by phone. Kent is very primitive.

Anyway, good news for me, I think.

 

[dazzer6666]

Numbers update :

Infections - 6,391, rolling 7 day down 29.4%
Deaths - 343, rolling 7 day down 36%
Admissions - 1,110, rolling 7 day down 22.1%
Vaccinations - 203k first jabs (20k up on last Tues), 30k second jabs (20k up on last Tues). 20.478m first jabs administered

 

[The Wizard]

548 deaths announced last Tuesday
343 announced today

That kind of dramatic drop never happened the first time, for me it’s an addition to the (already) conclusive proof that the vaccines are starting to take effect.

 

[The Wizard]

 

[Napper]

Roll on summer. We are all going to have one !

And we'll all be back at the amex next season.

 

[crookie]

Wealden figures lowest in Kent/Sussex/Surrey, 23 per 100000, down 50% in a week, incredible

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

 

[dazzer6666]

LFrom the DT (can’t post full link as behind a paywall) but becoming clear that numbers are streaking ahead of modelling estimates due to success of vaccine rollout and the efficacy of the vaccine.



Fall in Covid deaths ahead of estimates as calls for quicker lockdown easing grow

Government has said it will lift restrictions based on 'data not dates', and figures show second wave declining faster than expected. The fall in Covid deaths in England is running around three weeks ahead of modelling estimates, figures show, as experts called for lockdown to be eased more quickly.

Boris Johnson has promised that the Government will lift restrictions based on "data not dates", and figures now show that Britain's second virus wave is declining far faster than expected.

The most recent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (SPI-M) projections were produced on Feb 10 and were pivotal in developing the Government's roadmap out of restrictions.

The midpoint projections estimated that deaths in England would not fall below 200 a day until around mid-March – but that point was reached on Feb 25. SPI-M suggested there would be around 150 deaths a day by March 21, when the model ends. But daily deaths by date of death are around that now, although there will be a small increase because of lagged data in coming days.

Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh and a member of SPI-M, said: "The data are indeed looking better than the models were predicting and – to the best of my knowledge – better than anyone was expecting.

"If the phrase 'data-driven not date-driven' has any meaning, then it must allow for the schedule for relaxing restrictions to be brought forward if the data are better than expected and not just putting the schedule back if the data are worse than expected.

"It remains the case that if we unlock too far, too quickly, we risk a resurgence. However, given the data, I'd hope that the Government is actively considering unlocking just as cautiously but appreciably less slowly.

"Lockdown continues to be just as harmful as ever, so there is a public health imperative to relax measures as soon as it is safe to do so. An over-abundance of caution is not a cost-free option."

The modelling may be running behind real-world data because it has failed to judge quite how well the vaccination programme would go.

For the purposes of the roadmap, SPI-M estimated that vaccines would reduce the risk of infection between 24 and 48 per cent after the first dose, and 30 to 60 per cent after the second dose. But real world results show vaccination is far more effective, reducing the risk by 70 per cent after one dose and 85 per cent after two doses.

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, of the University of Cambridge, said: "If we look at what is happening every day as we see on the [Government's coronavirus] dashboard, we can see that deaths in the over-65s – one of the vaccinated age groups – are now halving every week.

"We all sort of hoped something like this might happen – but frankly it is better than anyone expected, I think."

The numbers of new hospital admissions are also falling slightly faster than anticipated by the SPI-M model. Admissions in England fell to roughly 1,000 by Feb 21, but the midpoint on the models suggested around 1,200 cases at the same point. The seven-day rolling figure shows numbers are closer to those modelled.

One government adviser said scientists had consistently failed to update their models as new data became available throughout the pandemic.

"This has been a problem all the way through," the adviser said. "You can get so obsessed with models that, if the world doesn't fit, you have to make the world fit or ignore the world."

Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.

"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.

"It's a very positive story in terms of the rollout of the vaccine, and the situation is looking very good in the elderly. Admissions are coming down and the number of people in hospital could well be below 10,000 within the next few days."

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that 56.4 per cent of the over-80s in England now have Covid antibodies following the vaccine rollout – an increase of 37 per cent in a fortnight.

Overall, nearly one in four over-16s in England now has immunity to coronavirus – a total of 10.5 million people and an increase of 23.3 per cent in two weeks. The devolved nations are not doing quite so well, however, with just 18.5 per cent of the over-80s showing antibodies in Wales, 20.7 per cent in Scotland and 17.6 per cent in Northern Ireland.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Dolly has her vaccine and has re-written one of her classics in an attempt to get folk to take one too(0:20):

https://youtu.be/QWRdzAFgXyc

What a lovely gesture.

 

[Mellotron]

LFrom the DT (can’t post full link as behind a paywall) but becoming clear that numbers are streaking ahead of modelling estimates due to success of vaccine rollout and the efficacy of the vaccine.



Fall in Covid deaths ahead of estimates as calls for quicker lockdown easing grow

Government has said it will lift restrictions based on 'data not dates', and figures show second wave declining faster than expected. The fall in Covid deaths in England is running around three weeks ahead of modelling estimates, figures show, as experts called for lockdown to be eased more quickly.

Boris Johnson has promised that the Government will lift restrictions based on "data not dates", and figures now show that Britain's second virus wave is declining far faster than expected.

The most recent Scientific Pandemic Influenza Modelling group (SPI-M) projections were produced on Feb 10 and were pivotal in developing the Government's roadmap out of restrictions.

The midpoint projections estimated that deaths in England would not fall below 200 a day until around mid-March – but that point was reached on Feb 25. SPI-M suggested there would be around 150 deaths a day by March 21, when the model ends. But daily deaths by date of death are around that now, although there will be a small increase because of lagged data in coming days.

Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh and a member of SPI-M, said: "The data are indeed looking better than the models were predicting and – to the best of my knowledge – better than anyone was expecting.

"If the phrase 'data-driven not date-driven' has any meaning, then it must allow for the schedule for relaxing restrictions to be brought forward if the data are better than expected and not just putting the schedule back if the data are worse than expected.

"It remains the case that if we unlock too far, too quickly, we risk a resurgence. However, given the data, I'd hope that the Government is actively considering unlocking just as cautiously but appreciably less slowly.

"Lockdown continues to be just as harmful as ever, so there is a public health imperative to relax measures as soon as it is safe to do so. An over-abundance of caution is not a cost-free option."

The modelling may be running behind real-world data because it has failed to judge quite how well the vaccination programme would go.

For the purposes of the roadmap, SPI-M estimated that vaccines would reduce the risk of infection between 24 and 48 per cent after the first dose, and 30 to 60 per cent after the second dose. But real world results show vaccination is far more effective, reducing the risk by 70 per cent after one dose and 85 per cent after two doses.

Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, of the University of Cambridge, said: "If we look at what is happening every day as we see on the [Government's coronavirus] dashboard, we can see that deaths in the over-65s – one of the vaccinated age groups – are now halving every week.

"We all sort of hoped something like this might happen – but frankly it is better than anyone expected, I think."

The numbers of new hospital admissions are also falling slightly faster than anticipated by the SPI-M model. Admissions in England fell to roughly 1,000 by Feb 21, but the midpoint on the models suggested around 1,200 cases at the same point. The seven-day rolling figure shows numbers are closer to those modelled.

One government adviser said scientists had consistently failed to update their models as new data became available throughout the pandemic.

"This has been a problem all the way through," the adviser said. "You can get so obsessed with models that, if the world doesn't fit, you have to make the world fit or ignore the world."

Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.

"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.

"It's a very positive story in terms of the rollout of the vaccine, and the situation is looking very good in the elderly. Admissions are coming down and the number of people in hospital could well be below 10,000 within the next few days."

The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that 56.4 per cent of the over-80s in England now have Covid antibodies following the vaccine rollout – an increase of 37 per cent in a fortnight.

Overall, nearly one in four over-16s in England now has immunity to coronavirus – a total of 10.5 million people and an increase of 23.3 per cent in two weeks. The devolved nations are not doing quite so well, however, with just 18.5 per cent of the over-80s showing antibodies in Wales, 20.7 per cent in Scotland and 17.6 per cent in Northern Ireland.

I suspect they'll want to see how schools go, but if data continues at present rate we could be consistently under 100 deaths a day by mid-late March, so pressure will build quite a bit imo.

Perhaps they won't move the dates, but we'll see elements of the easing moving forward a stage here and there. That would the fudge/compromise I'd expect.

 

[Sarisbury Seagull]

Dolly has her vaccine and has re-written one of her classics in an attempt to get folk to take one too(0:20):

https://youtu.be/QWRdzAFgXyc

What a lovely gesture.

And people say she's just a big pair of tits.

 

[Hotchilidog]

I suspect they'll want to see how schools go, but if data continues at present rate we could be consistently under 100 deaths a day by mid-late March, so pressure will build quite a bit imo.

Perhaps they won't move the dates, but we'll see elements of the easing moving forward a stage here and there. That would the fudge/compromise I'd expect.

I think the agreed timetable is ok. If the numbers continue to fall after the school re-opening then the next three months provide us with a real opportunity to get on top of the virus and we can reopen fully in June with greater confidence than we otherwise would have. The lower numbers also give us the opportunity to strengthen the test and trace system to cope with any further local outbreaks.

The current trends are very good news indeed and if we hold our nerve we can possibly look forward to a genuine lifting of lockdown that we can hopefully make stick.

 

[Mellotron]

I think the agreed timetable is ok.

I'm down the middle. Apparently we are about 3 weeks' ahead of where we should be, and one of the guys on SPI-M has reminded us that staying overly cautious "isn't cost-free either". If it's more damaging to stay in lockdown than come out, I think it becomes a different conversation.

Not suggesting drastic changes, just bringing forward a few of the outdoor easing - the ones that make bugger all difference to the R rate.

I guess we'll see where we are 2-3 weeks after schools open. I really think that will be the big litmus test.

 

[timbha]

Where are we with the R number?

 

[atomised]

I'm down the middle. Apparently we are about 3 weeks' ahead of where we should be, and one of the guys on SPI-M has reminded us that staying overly cautious "isn't cost-free either". If it's more damaging to stay in lockdown than come out, I think it becomes a different conversation.

Not suggesting drastic changes, just bringing forward a few of the outdoor easing - the ones that make bugger all difference to the R rate.

I guess we'll see where we are 2-3 weeks after schools open. I really think that will be the big litmus test.

Similar outlook here. If.we can unlock elements earlier it would be good but if the current timetable is adhered to and we end up out for good then that's great too

 

[highflyer]

Where are we with the R number?

Depending on sources, somewhere between 0.6 and 1.0

But I think R is now becoming a less relevant indicator for two reasons:

1. As numbers drop calculation of R is less and less reliable, as we saw in the summer.

2. With vaccination effect kicking in, the direct link between infection rate and serious illness, hospitalization and deaths gets broken. So as long as trends in those areas continue (as it looks like they will), then R being at one, or even slightly above, for a while really doesn't matter as much. Though obviously in the long term you do want to see it drop.

 

[highflyer]

I'm down the middle. Apparently we are about 3 weeks' ahead of where we should be, and one of the guys on SPI-M has reminded us that staying overly cautious "isn't cost-free either". If it's more damaging to stay in lockdown than come out, I think it becomes a different conversation.

Not suggesting drastic changes, just bringing forward a few of the outdoor easing - the ones that make bugger all difference to the R rate.

I guess we'll see where we are 2-3 weeks after schools open. I really think that will be the big litmus test.

Same. I think the key is to open the schools and give it a few weeks to see what happens, whilst also accelerating vaccinations.
Then if all continues to look good, I'm very hopeful that end of March/early April we'll see a bit more opening than is currently planned.


Which will be nice.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Perhaps opinions should be on the covid forum?

 

[Mellotron]

Where are we with the R number?

Last I read was around 0.7 I think, of course this becomes less relevant the lower we go, as small moves can drastically move it in either direction. For example, I saw a local news article recently talking about how cases in the area had TRIPLED in the last weeks, with R rate ROCKETING up to 3.

The area had gone from 4 new cases one week to 12 cases the next. The following week it was 5 new cases.

 

[Mellotron]

Perhaps opinions should be on the covid forum?

Fair. I just don't like the main forum, hence why I avoid it.

To be honest this should all go in the Roadmap out of Lockdown thread, I just couldn't find it!