[News] The Coronavirus Good News thread

[Blue3]

Positives from the current lock down;

1. Much less litter on the roads no MacDonalds boxes strewn everywhere
2. The benifits of sky almost free from planes, Much less road traffic, less people all leading to the return of wildlife I have seen in the past couple of days a huge buzzard soaring high above my house in the centre of town and two foxes in broard day light one laying on a flat roof the other sitting on a veranda just enjoying the sun
3. How quiet life is I can hear bird song bees buzzing I am lucky enough to have a garden and the sound of the water fountain instead of a background noise it's the loudest noise in the garden

 

[Mellotron]

Sorry if I’m misunderstanding you, but surely the peak that’s set to arrive in the next week is the peak number of deaths. Given that it takes about 18-21 days from infection to death, to me that means the peak day for infections was about 14 days ago, i.e. the final day before lockdown.

I don’t believe the “average” days from infection to death are 18-21, as some have died within just a few days of contracting it. I believe 18-21 is the high end of the scale of infection to death. Could be wrong. Also, still doesn’t mean that last day before lockdown was peak infection day, as there was still all sorts of movement and no doubt further spread of the disease in the first couple of days of lockdown, as people got sorted to settle in for longer.

You might be right, but hospitalisation continued to increase past that date, and I suppose that’s what I’m referring to, the hospitalisation numbers.

 

[Mellotron]

I know you mean well and I admire your positivity, but for many of the 1.5 million very vulnerable this will be far from over... At least if the morons behave they may have a bed to die in and not get turned away...

It won’t be over as quickly as for the rest of us, but the sooner the peak goes down, the sooner the healthcare sector can focus on testing and we can then hopefully move into the next phase fairly quickly, which will ultimately help the vulnerable a lot.

 

[Solid at the back]

Hope you’re doing well mate.

What do you work in?

"Food manufacturer" - big debate amongst employees weather we are not. The company manufactures supplements.

Work is said to be quiet and they've furloughed about 10 employees. Hoping they see sense not to risk anymore lives and furlough all of us,but I suspect if that was going to happen, it would of already happened.

 

[amexer]

Anybody else fed up with the questions that follow daily press conferences. Tonights will be. When will lockdown end. How long will Boris be in intensive care, How long rest will he need after coming out of hospital With Gove also now having to self isolate is the government concerned that so many are going down, When will new cases reach the peak. Are we in danger of running out of beds

 

[Mr Banana]

Also, have been thinking - if we are due our peak within next 6-9 days, and there is a reasonable incubation period for this virus - wouldn’t that suggest we are hitting the infection peak round about right now? ie within a few days, your chance of being infected will be going down, slowly at first and then exponentially.

If someone isn’t convinced by this logic, please say. Makes sense to me at least.

This hasn't been updated for a few weeks, but apparently the highest chance is in June: https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1240973041351434240

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

This hasn't been updated for a few weeks, but apparently the highest chance is in June: https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1240973041351434240

That prediction will have been based upon outdated data.

 

[Mellotron]

Sorry if I’m misunderstanding you, but surely the peak that’s set to arrive in the next week is the peak number of deaths. Given that it takes about 18-21 days from infection to death, to me that means the peak day for infections was about 14 days ago, i.e. the final day before lockdown.

I agree that the peak being referred to coming in the next 6-9 days is the peak death toll.

Again, you've repeated that it takes 18-21 days from infection to death. I don't believe that's the average time, given it appears some have died within a few days (i.e. 3-4 days) of contracting it - especially the already very ill, of course.

Given that hospitalisations continued to climb well AFTER the final day before lockdown, that would immediately disprove your suggestion, I would suspect. At a guess, I would think we passed the infection peak about 2-3 days ago now.

 

[Mellotron]

This hasn't been updated for a few weeks, but apparently the highest chance is in June: https://twitter.com/ActuaryByDay/status/1240973041351434240

Given the trends in Italy and Spain, and the fact they have clearly already had their highest infection days, that looks to be way off now.

I would estimate it is almost 100% definite it will be in April.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Anybody else fed up with the questions that follow daily press conferences. Tonights will be. When will lockdown end. How long will Boris be in intensive care, How long rest will he need after coming out of hospital With Gove also now having to self isolate is the government concerned that so many are going down, When will new cases reach the peak. Are we in danger of running out of beds

Remember this is the good news thread

 

[Norman Potting]

[video]https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8189363/Flock-lambs-flout-two-metre-rule-hop-skip-roundabout.html#v-7915871493438786781[/video]

Thread seems to be veering away from "good news" on this thread. What we need are some sheep - on a playground roundabout.

(I wouldn't normally share anything from the D**** M***" but have made this exception.)

 

[Mellotron]

As per previous news on F1 making CPAP devices. They managed 600 yesterday and are hoping to upscale to 1,000 a day, rapidly.

Formula 1 team begins producing breathing aid
UCL Ventura CPAP device
James Tye / UCLCopyright: James Tye / UCL
Mercedes-AMG HPP has begun production of the breathing aid its F1 team developed with engineers at University College London and clinicians at UCLH.

The Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) device is used to deliver oxygen to a patient's lungs without using a ventilator.

They are already used in UK hospitals but are in short supply.

The company produced nearly 600 CPAP devices on Monday and is hoping to increase that to 1,000 a day.

The government has ordered 10,000 of the breathing aids, which are being made on machines that would normally produce Formula 1 pistons and turbochargers.

 

[Mellotron]

Hospitalisations in UK only rose by 2% yesterday. Daily infection rates appear to be stabilising also.

 

[cheshunt seagull]

I know you mean well and I admire your positivity, but for many of the 1.5 million very vulnerable this will be far from over... At least if the morons behave they may have a bed to die in and not get turned away...

As one of the 1.5 million I am resigned to this being a long and slow business. Being a member of this club is helpful in getting delivery slots but it does have a darker meaning when it comes to clinical decisions.

 

[Mellotron]

I think your figures are well off. There may be rare cases of already seriously ill people dying in three days, but for the majority this is a slow killer. Incubation time alone can be up to 24 days (average of five days) and most people have a week of flu-like symptoms before the breathing difficulties kick in. Even mild cases show symptoms for 10 days. Just look at Boris, he’s on Day 12 of symptoms now (so likely to be around 17 days since infection). People who get put on a ventilator are spending an average of two weeks on it.

So of course hospitalisations continued to rise after lockdown. There is a lag between infection, hospitalisation and death rates. That proves me right, not wrong.

Also, no way did infections peak two days ago. The country is locked down, almost every business is shut, public transport is 5% full and everyone is sitting at home. It’s possible hospitalisations peaked a few days ago but infections would have peaked just before lockdown. This has translated into the hospitalisation rate starting to flatten about two weeks later (which we are now seeing) and, in the words of Patrick Vallance about 20 minutes ago, the death rate should be doing a similar thing two weeks from now.

Cool. Prof Karol Sikora agrees with me so I just don’t know who to believe out of him and you.

[TWEET]1247548746579226628[/TWEET]

There is no way on earth our infection peak was the day of lockdown. That makes no logical sense whatsoever. If you look at testing and cases since you can immediately see that’s bollocks.

With Boris you are trying to use an outlier to prove a point. The majority of people dying of CV will be elderly/already ill or both. If you look at the data from Italy and Spain, death trends follow behind case trends by about 7-12 days.

You are of course aware that huge amounts of the country didn’t lock down at that point, right? i.e. the millions of key workers who have all been FAR more likely to get it in the last couple of weeks than they did before lockdown.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

New uk cases today the lowest this month and curve coming down quicker than expected 2 weeks into lockdown, death toll today highest yet but much lower than expected with predictions 2 weeks ago. All the photos are a few bellends abusing things but the waste majority of people, tens of millions are making great efforts and continue to do so. Still expect the lockdown to be extended for 3 weeks next tuesday and review again. I think that is right. Adjusting to a more serene way of life for now

 

[SK1NT]

Positives from the current lock down;

1. Much less litter on the roads no MacDonalds boxes strewn everywhere
2. The benifits of sky almost free from planes, Much less road traffic, less people all leading to the return of wildlife I have seen in the past couple of days a huge buzzard soaring high above my house in the centre of town and two foxes in broard day light one laying on a flat roof the other sitting on a veranda just enjoying the sun
3. How quiet life is I can hear bird song bees buzzing I am lucky enough to have a garden and the sound of the water fountain instead of a background noise it's the loudest noise in the garden

It is so nice just not hearing planes and hum of cars on the roads. It sounds like the birds are having a party out there. They must be loving this. I have also seen a few foxes walking about in daylight.

Come on wildlife... I want to see some Hedgehogs.