[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[casbom]

The game is up isn't it ? The sudden warming event 3-4 weeks ago matieralised into nothing, the East did not follow although it was a 75% chance. We have had some chillier weather with a NW flow and at least a dew decent frosts this month and a couple of - 5 c nights so not a total disaster for cold lovers but any snow ? no not a single flake. The forecast is more of the same with occasional slightly cold spells and night frosts, next week not as cold and no signs at all of any snow event. Eastern europe is also much warmer now. So all in all a pretty shockingly poor winter with a couple of weeks window down here for any real cold and it just is not happening. Let's hope 19/20 is better

Game up? With Feb and first two weeks of March still to come? Yeah ok!

The downwelling has been very slow but is still forecast to actually hit the Trop during the first week of Feb, who knows what will happen, we might get lucky with Blocking in the right place.

There is a VERY small chance of snow along southern counties Tues/Wed with a channel low, this is being seen on some models and is gaining more support, so this is one to watch at this stage.
At the moment, milder for the next couple of days and then turning colder on Sunday with chance of wintry weather up to Thursday.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Game up? With Feb and first two weeks of March still to come? Yeah ok!

The downwelling has been very slow but is still forecast to actually hit the Trop during the first week of Feb, who knows what will happen, we might get lucky with Blocking in the right place.

There is a VERY small chance of snow along southern counties Tues/Wed with a channel low, this is being seen on some models and is gaining more support, so this is one to watch at this stage.
At the moment, milder for the next couple of days and then turning colder on Sunday with chance of wintry weather up to Thursday.

Certainly agree with the February bit....I'm on holiday in UK second week and towards the end..look out for snow then (maybe not in Sussex) ..it always does

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Game up? With Feb and first two weeks of March still to come? Yeah ok!

The downwelling has been very slow but is still forecast to actually hit the Trop during the first week of Feb, who knows what will happen, we might get lucky with Blocking in the right place.

There is a VERY small chance of snow along southern counties Tues/Wed with a channel low, this is being seen on some models and is gaining more support, so this is one to watch at this stage.
At the moment, milder for the next couple of days and then turning colder on Sunday with chance of wintry weather up to Thursday.

In Sussex after mid feb it is game over. Occasionally you might get some snow after, we had last year but generally if we do it is a very brief affair. The window for any prolonged real cold down here ends in 3 week

 

[pearl]

Certainly agree with the February bit....I'm on holiday in UK second week and towards the end..look out for snow then (maybe not in Sussex) ..it always does

what does one do on holiday in the UK in February? If you don't mind me asking.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

The snow rows for Brighton having peaked 24 hours ago are lower on the most recent run, however, there is a chance of something Tues night into Wed, but each run flip flops on the path if the low, so who knows?



To illustrate the possibility for midweek, this morning's ECM had this chart:

 

[LamieRobertson]

what does one do on holiday in the UK in February? If you don't mind me asking.

One enjoys oneself sometimes by going somewhere that has lots of lovely scenery and then sits either inside in front of a log burner and eats...drinks ..reads ..or binges on box sets....or sits outside and admires the view ...possibly sitting in the hot tub....well thats the plan for the latter part of the month.....middle of month one goes to Center Parcs and tires oneself out running after one grandchild whilst helping out with nappies and rocking the second one to sleep ...its the only time of the year I get a break (decorating in the middle)

 

[CorgiRegisteredFriend]

Let’s face it, it’s been a pretty boring winter weather wise.

 

[Coldeanseagull]

Good, my trachycarpus (or carpi, I have loads of different ones)don't need to be over tested

 

[A1X]

Let’s face it, it’s been a pretty boring winter weather wise.

IMHO it's been a pretty dull 12 months, there was very little storm activity during the Autumn, the summer was dry and hot but without any spectacular stormage to go with it. Really there was the Beast last March then a few storms around April / May but beyond that there's not been a lot.

 

[CorgiRegisteredFriend]

IMHO it's been a pretty dull 12 months, there was very little storm activity during the Autumn, the summer was dry and hot but without any spectacular stormage to go with it. Really there was the Beast last March then a few storms around April / May but beyond that there's not been a lot.

Yep! But I’d take that hot summer again without a thought.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

I agree - you're constant carping is tedious beyond belief. This thread is not about the accurate prediction of snow - it's about people who love the magical effect of the occasional snow we get in the South East willing it to happen. You know this but you constantly choose to ignore that and bleat on about how unlikely snow is. No sh1t Sherlock.

We all bloody know that. People here are reaching for hope. You're enjoyment in forecasting no snow and reveling in your Nostradamus style prescience isn't needed or appreciated. But hey, it gets you a bit of attention year after year.

I disagree with most of the sentiment in this post. The OP asks a question regarding the likelihood of snow on a given occasion and most of the posts, at least useful ones, address the same issue. It is not a thread purely for people who desperately hope for snow, but for all of us who have an interest, whether we regard snow as desirable or otherwise.

 

[Peteinblack]

BBC's 4-week forecast, issued yesterday, so taking us to the end of February

 

[martin tyler]

View attachment 104087

BBC's 4-week forecast, issued yesterday, so taking us to the end of February

Not sure anyone has had any clue this winter. Met Office goes with this
UK Outlook for Sunday 10 Feb 2019 to Sunday 24 Feb 2019:
Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, although the incursion of these introduce a significant risk of snow should very cold conditions become established.

 

[Peteinblack]

Not sure anyone has had any clue this winter. Met Office goes with this
UK Outlook for Sunday 10 Feb 2019 to Sunday 24 Feb 2019:
Cold or very cold conditions are likely to dominate the weather throughout this period, with a greater than average chance of easterly or northeasterly winds dominating. This would bring an enhanced risk of snow, as well as widespread and occasionally severe frosts, although the exact details remain very uncertain. In this setup, the driest and brightest weather is likely in the north and northwest. Despite the prevalence of cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible, most likely in the south, although the incursion of these introduce a significant risk of snow should very cold conditions become established.

So the weather forecasts themselves are 'changeable'

 

[Stoichkov]

Netweather goons are going BERSERK

What gives?

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Good, my trachycarpus (or carpi, I have loads of different ones)don't need to be over tested

Your Trachycarpus should be hardy to at least minus 20 C so don't worry about it!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Netweather goons are going BERSERK

What gives?

There's a chance, and I stress A CHANCE, of snow Tuesday night, but it's very dependent upon the path of a low pressure that may zip along the channel. It ALL needs to be aligned perfectly, as unlike some 'classic' channel lows before, we won't have deep cold air in place to start with.

The main risk down here is it starts as rain, and the intensity isn't high enough to stop it remaining sleety until the colder air digs in as it leaves.

 

[Coldeanseagull]

Your Trachycarpus should be hardy to at least minus 20 C so don't worry about it!

The fortuneis, waggies, nova, naini tal and princeps are, the martianus and latisectus tend to get leaf burn

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

The fortuneis, waggies, nova, naini tal and princeps are, the martianus and latisectus tend to get leaf burn

Nice selection of Trachys there! I only have fortunei, wagnerianus and a takil. Have killed a relatively small martianus (which was lovely, sob). Don't want to go way off topic, but do you 'do' other exotics?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

**** knows what Trachys are, but the Met Office have issued a weather warning for snbow Tuesday night into Wednesday.

It covers our area apart from the coastal parts.


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2019-01-27