[Misc] The Award-winning official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2024-25 Season]

[Papa Lazarou]

Based upon GFS only

 

[pearl]

Still a chance - but the likelihood has fluctuated over the past few days

View attachment 103776

Probably because I bought some snow boots

(bit like when I bought sunglasses .... it rained for a month)

 

[Flex Your Head]

It's a tad disappointing, but not without hope.

 

[LamieRobertson]

It's a tad disappointing, but not without hope.

Not for some

 

[Flex Your Head]

[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] - what on Earth is going on? Last night on TWO there were posts about snowmageddon, and a potential 20cm of snow for the SE of the UK... and this morning, winter is over! Can the charts really change that much in 6 hours or so? What's your take on it all (please )
I read the TWO forum regularly when there's talk of snow, and feel quite exhausted by the roller coaster ride! Can't imagine what it's like to be able to 'read the charts' too and have to try and interpret what's shown!

 

[Papa Lazarou]

[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION] - what on Earth is going on? Last night on TWO there were posts about snowmageddon, and a potential 20cm of snow for the SE of the UK... and this morning, winter is over! Can the charts really change that much in 6 hours or so? What's your take on it all (please )
I read the TWO forum regularly when there's talk of snow, and feel quite exhausted by the roller coaster ride! Can't imagine what it's like to be able to 'read the charts' too and have to try and interpret what's shown!

Yes, last night's ECM Op run was amazing for snow, although the GFS was not so keen. This morning, the GFS and ensemble have backed away a little further from an extended cold spell, and the ECM Op run is also far less favourable. WE don't see the full ECM ensemble details, but apparently there is still support for cold weather in there.

This was never a 'nailed on cold spell' but last night's ECM got some people over excited.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

Metcheck running at 1.45c above normal for January so it is turning out to be an exceptionally mild winter after a very mild november and december

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Yes, last night's ECM Op run was amazing for snow, although the GFS was not so keen. This morning, the GFS and ensemble have backed away a little further from an extended cold spell, and the ECM Op run is also far less favourable. WE don't see the full ECM ensemble details, but apparently there is still support for cold weather in there.

This was never a 'nailed on cold spell' but last night's ECM got some people over excited.

And when you see an ensemble with this amount of scatter from day 7, it's clear there is loads of room for adjustments

 

[SK1NT]

Metcheck running at 1.45c above normal for January so it is turning out to be an exceptionally mild winter after a very mild november and december

Still hope for snow i think last December and Jan was quite mild and then the Beast appeared.

 

[Eeyore]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/weat...ast-snow-warning-weather-forecast-latest-maps

Daily Express predicting Armageddon again, so best unpack the shorts, flip-flops and sun cream. Barbecue anyone?

'The terrifying snowstorm ravaging Europe has now claimed the lives of 20 people - but Britain could be next in line to bear the brunt of the frightening winter storm'

v

The Met office said in its long-range forecast prediction for the period of January 16 to January 25: “Winds will be strong with a risk of gales in the north at times. Thereafter, it looks set to remain mainly cold, unsettled and sometimes windy, with any milder spells tending to be brief and associated with longer spells of rain.

"The rain could turn to snow almost anywhere, but particularly across northern and central areas. especially later in this period. Some drier, brighter, quieter spells are likely, perhaps with snow showers, especially in the east. During such spells, frost could become widespread and severe.

"Temperatures overall will be close to the seasonal average, but from late next week onwards there is a greater chance of cold spells giving more widespread frosts and an enhanced risk of snow, especially in the north and east."

 

[Audax]

There was an informative weather update on BBC news last night highlighting the forecasting difficulties at the moment. Essentially there are some fine details that could completely change things. On one hand we could get a Beast and on the other we could get milder.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Notice anything from the latest GFS?

 

[CliveWalkerWingWizard]

Notice anything from the latest GFS?

View attachment 103829

Currently it is 6 degrees in Brighton

 

[Djmiles]

FINALLY expecting the first decent amount of snow here near the US/Canada border. My first Canadian winter has been thoroughly disappointing thus far!!

 

[Driver8]

The Award-Winning Official "More Snow Tomorrow?" Thread [2018-19 Season]

FINALLY expecting the first decent amount of snow here near the US/Canada border. My first Canadian winter has been thoroughly disappointing thus far!!

I had about 6 inches of snow when I was in Bow Valley in September!

 

[Weststander]

[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION], looking further ahead to Weds 23/1 onwards, is settled snow looking a real possibility for all of Sussex?

 

[Papa Lazarou]

[MENTION=236]Papa Lazarou[/MENTION], looking further ahead to Weds 23/1 onwards, is settled snow looking a real possibility for all of Sussex?

It's certainly possible, but I think what you're asking is whether is PROBABLE.

Tonight's GFS is a big step in the right direction. The models have been really struggling from the 22nd onwards for a number of days, which is understandable, as it's been many days in the future, and the effect (if any) of the SSW has been hard to model until it started to work its way down through the atmosphere.

Where we are tonight is the GFS ensemble, for the first time in the 'spell' have come to some agreement, and that seems to be more cold than not. However, as the attached shows, although the snow % values have increased nicely there are still milder options (this is the 850hpa temp).



Looking at surface temps there is still a 'range' available, but the cold outcomes are increasing.



So, it's an increasing chance, but it could still easily got ever so wrong and we get cold rain. I'd say it's now pretty much guaranteed for upland and northern parts of the UK at some stage (even this week), but down here we need to wait a little longer, and although we probably will see snow falling, it's the longevity and persistence (on the ground) that's the variable.

 

[Weststander]

It's certainly possible, but I think what you're asking is whether is PROBABLE.

Tonight's GFS is a big step in the right direction. The models have been really struggling from the 22nd onwards for a number of days, which is understandable, as it's been many days in the future, and the effect (if any) of the SSW has been hard to model until it started to work its way down through the atmosphere.

Where we are tonight is the GFS ensemble, for the first time in the 'spell' have come to some agreement, and that seems to be more cold than not. However, as the attached shows, although the snow % values have increased nicely there are still milder options (this is the 850hpa temp).

View attachment 103833

Looking at surface temps there is still a 'range' available, but the cold outcomes are increasing.

View attachment 103834

So, it's an increasing chance, but it could still easily got ever so wrong and we get cold rain. I'd say it's now pretty much guaranteed for upland and northern parts of the UK at some stage (even this week), but down here we need to wait a little longer, and although we probably will see snow falling, it's the longevity and persistence (on the ground) that's the variable.

Thanks. I’m trying to steer clear of an excited “probable” from now on, instead relying on your considered scientific view.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

Thanks. I’m trying to steer clear of an excited “probable” from now on, instead relying on your considered scientific view.

I have to reign in the enthusiasm like any snow lover, especially when it comes to doing forecasts etc. I can't let me wishes over-ride the facts. My daughter is worse than me, always bemoaning the lack of snow and asking me when it's going to.

Let's see what tomorrow's models bring us....

 

[Marty McFly]

FINALLY expecting the first decent amount of snow here near the US/Canada border. My first Canadian winter has been thoroughly disappointing thus far!!

Whereabouts in Canada are you, bud?

Just flown over the Maritimes. Seemingly lots of snow on the ground!