[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[US Seagull]

Hang on, am I missing something? The only people so far caught trying to rig ballots are Republicans?? That can't be right.

I seem to recall that the only people charged with electoral fraud back in 2020 after all the hoo-hah were Republican fake electors. Is there some sort of pattern here...?

Probably false flag liberals trying to make the Republicans look bad? Super deep cover by pretending to be lifelong Republicans for, well, their entire life, just waiting to be activated now by the liberal elites in 2024 to stop MAGA from draining the swamp.

Presumably...

 

[Insel affe]

Trump is going to win, isn't he

 

[Mellotron]

“We’ve never seen a disconnect like this in any modern presidential election, or maybe any presidential race ever,” says one data scientist.

The 'fundamentals' say Harris should win, but the 'technicals' show a big lead for Trump say two leading election watchers

In presidential elections, fundamental and technical analysis are also the two leading methods for handicapping the outcome.

fortune.com

On that basis, the polling could be way out or the betting!

Interesting article but it makes no mention whatsoever of the potentially significant reason why there is a lot of betting being dumped onto Trump atm, arguably missing possibly the most crucial reason for the disconnect between technical and fundamental.

 

[Mellotron]

Trump is going to win, isn't he

Probably not.

 

[US Seagull]

And what if some said they used that box, but they didn't, so they get to vote twice? Will that be easy to authorities to check?

Yes. It'll be easy to check. Absentee / dropbox ballots are typically signed. Who you voted for isn't public information (unless you decide to tell people), but that you voted is tracked by the board of elections.

They know who they sent each ballot to and if they sent you two and they both come back, then you're going to have to do some explaining.

 

[FamilyGuy]

Trump wants to claim his elections get stolen, but the person burning ballots is a, drum role, you're just not going to believe this - a Republican! I mean who could have guessed?

The obvious question though, is how do they deal with the missing votes?

It appears that they’re asking people who voted after 7pm to contact the authorities to check the current viability of their vote. Presumably they’ll need to apply some sort of procedure for damaged votes.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Trump is going to win, isn't he

The polls have been skewed by the right wing polling organisations. In reality its all to play for on 5th November.

 

[Zeberdi]

For anyone interesting in Presidential campaign betting, this is a fascinating article on the how well betting and polling has historically been correct in predicting outcome but also the pros and cons when it comes to relying on either:

Do Betting Odds or Polls Accurately Predict the Presidential Election Often? - Oddstrader

Examining the reliability of betting odds and polls in predicting U.S. presidential elections. Which is more accurate?

www.oddstrader.com

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

Most of my friends in the US who support Trump are also Yankees fans - when I lived in NYC I was a Mets fan because I despised everything the Yankees stood for (they were really the Chelsea or Man City of the MLB). That's why it's so nice to see them getting a good gubbing by the Dodgers.

Hoping the same will happen to Trump next Tuesday

 

[pb21]

Betting market does suggest Trump is going to win biggly, unless the betting market is being skewed by nefarious actors...

 

[kevo]

Trump is going to win, isn't he

I think Harris will just edge it, but then Trump will declare the outcome invalid and all hell will break loose.

 

[Zeberdi]

Betting market does suggest Trump is going to win biggly, unless the betting market is being skewed by nefarious actors...

All it takes is some huge bets from one or two and it skews the odds

From the artilcle I linked to above:

• Market manipulation is possible if some sharks make huge bets that sway the odds in a certain direction, such as when someone bet at least $4 million on Mitt Romney in the 2012 election. It is also possible that the population of bettors are not evenly distributed among Democrats, Republicans, and independents, giving one side an advantage.

The question is can the betting market influence voting? - if people see the market favouring a particular candidate, then do they make an extra effort to get that candidate elected so they win their bet?

 

[Triggaaar]

I think Harris will just edge it, but then Trump will declare the outcome invalid and all hell will break loose.

I would hope that the authorities are prepared for that this time. He may well win, but if he doesn't, they should be ready to defend anywhere the maga morons amass, and if Trump is spouting his usual BS they should just arrest him and lock him away.

 

[Triggaaar]

• Market manipulation is possible if some sharks make huge bets that sway the odds in a certain direction, such as when someone bet at least $4 million on Mitt Romney in the 2012 election. It is also possible that the population of bettors are not evenly distributed among Democrats, Republicans, and independents, giving one side an advantage.

The question is can the betting market influence voting? - if people see the market favouring a particular candidate, then do they make an extra effort to get that candidate elected so they win their bet?

Musk is so wealthy he could drop a lot more than $4m to change the odds.

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

All it takes is some huge bets from one or two and it skews the odds

From the artilcle I linked to above:

• Market manipulation is possible if some sharks make huge bets that sway the odds in a certain direction, such as when someone bet at least $4 million on Mitt Romney in the 2012 election. It is also possible that the population of bettors are not evenly distributed among Democrats, Republicans, and independents, giving one side an advantage.

The question is can the betting market influence voting? - if people see the market favouring a particular candidate, then do they make an extra effort to get that candidate elected so they win their bet?

I'm not really that fazed by what the betting markets are indicating. It's a bit like the favourite in a horse race - it doesn't mean it's going to win it just means more money has been placed on it than any other horse in the race. On average a favourite in a horse race wins about 30-35% of the time - not even 50% of the time.

Can the betting market influence voting - who knows ?

 

[US Seagull]

Babs backs Harris:

George W. Bush's Daughter Barbara Breaks Silence on Election to Campaign for Kamala Harris (Exclusive)

Barbara Pierce Bush endorsed Kamala Harris for president in an exclusive statement to PEOPLE on Tuesday. She campaigned for Harris with friends in Pennsylvania over the weekend

people.com

 

[A1X]

OK I get what you are saying I think. I would be pissed if he didn't appoint the line up, Musk, Kennedy, etc for Kushner and other nepotistic picks and some Neo-con warpigs RINOs etc.

This Musk?

 

[A1X]

One of the problems they have with Trump if they try and steal the election through conspiracy is that he himself is too much of a vain blabbermouth to let them do it.

Take the rally at MSG, he walks right out on stage and says “ah we’re cooking something up, me and the speaker over there” so everyone immediately knows “OK, so their plan is ABC, so we’re going to be ready for that” and it won’t work. He’s the crap co-conspirator in any Hollywood heist movie who gives the game away and tips off the cops.

 

[Zeberdi]

I'm not really that fazed by what the betting markets are indicating. It's a bit like the favourite in a horse race - it doesn't mean it's going to win it just means more money has been placed on it than any other horse in the race. On average a favourite in a horse race wins about 30-35% of the time - not even 50% of the time.

Can the betting market influence voting - who knows ?

True.

Betting markets predict how likely Trump or Harris will win, not like opinion polls that predict the percentage of people who will vote and for whom.

A lot of the big money is coming from overseas (because until the betting company, Kalshi, won a stay to hold onshore betting/in the Presidential election, all Presidential election betting was outlawed in the US) - over $45 million from one account on Polymarket.

A French whale has bet $45 million on a Trump win so far. Who is this?

The trader has made hundreds of gambles in favor of Trump and against Kamala Harris.

fortune.com

Does it influence voters?

Maybe we should ask who is behind some of these mega bets and indeed, who is behind some of these syndicates? Eg Peter Thiel, whose support for Trump is well documented launced Polymarket and elections guru Nate Silver of Five-Thirty Eight, serves as an advisor. Musk frequently quotes Polymarket odds on his on X feed and cable news discussions. Musk tweeted earlier this month that Polymarket’s preference for Trump is more reliable than the traditional election research, since “actual money is on the line.”

Surely that is a conflict of interest?

“The pressure group Better Markets, an amicus in the CFTC’s suit, asserts that manipulating these markets could shift the facts. Cantrell Dumas, its director of derivatives policy, says that if the markets are taken seriously and show that one candidate is likely to win “people could stay home and not vote for their preferred candidate.”

Could Political Betting Swing the US Election?

Prediction markets have been around for hundreds of years, but their ability to change reality is increasing.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[sparkie]

Trump is going to win, isn't he

Quite possibly.

Although there's no point in about maybes that haven't happened yet and you can't control.