[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[North of Robertsbridge]

So, what happened here to cause Harris to drop and Trump to shoot up? Was there an event or something?

I think that may be faked

See here for the real 538 poll averages, Harris still well in the lead https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

 

[Bodian]

I think that may be faked

See here for the real 538 poll averages, Harris still well in the lead https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/

It's from The Guardian

2024 US presidential polls tracker: Trump v Harris latest national averages

Find out who’s up and who’s down in the latest US presidential election opinion polls

www.theguardian.com

 

[North of Robertsbridge]

It's from The Guardian

2024 US presidential polls tracker: Trump v Harris latest national averages

Find out who’s up and who’s down in the latest US presidential election opinion polls

www.theguardian.com

Well, it’s not what 538 are showing

 

[marlowe]

Do you think this pic is genuine? It seems to show a hole in his ear and a piece missing at the edge.View attachment 188758

I don't think it is a piece missing on the edge, I think it's just darker shading which gives a deceptive impression. If you look closely the outline of the ear is still intact albeit darker, for whatever reason.

But looking at the ear in closer detail does suggest evidence of multiple minor injuries/abrasions which doesn't support the bullet injury theory but leans more to injuries caused by shrapnel or other flying fragments of another object.

This is also supported by what appears to be an additional minor injury on his lower lip, unless that was sustained when he ducked for cover.

Another factor which leans away from the bullet wound theory is Trump's uncharacteristic reticence to make more of the specific injury than he has done. I think if it had been a bullet wound he would undoubtedly have drawn as much attention to the injury and would have flaunted it as much as possible, but he hasn't, he just wants people to believe it was a bullet wound without drawing too much attention to it.

It's also quite a common male characteristic to draw attention and flaunt our "war wounds", a bit like the "scars" scene in "Jaws", but it appears Trump is shying away from such close scrutiny....

 

[Iggle Piggle]

Before kick off, win probability is 52 Trump to 46% (yeah, I know that doesn't add up to 100) according to Betfair or 1.93 to 2.16 if you prefer. They haven't changed a great deal for weeks.

Be interested to see what the odds are when I wake up in the morning. I suspect whoever goes favourite after tonight will stay there until the votes start getting counted. Harris seemingly has the most to lose. If Trump hasn't put his supporters off by now he never will.

 

[Seagull58]

I don't think it is a piece missing on the edge, I think it's just darker shading which gives a deceptive impression. If you look closely the outline of the ear is still intact albeit darker, for whatever reason.

But looking at the ear in closer detail does suggest evidence of multiple minor injuries/abrasions which doesn't support the bullet injury theory but leans more to injuries caused by shrapnel or other flying fragments of another object.

This is also supported by what appears to be an additional minor injury on his lower lip, unless that was sustained when he ducked for cover.

Another factor which leans away from the bullet wound theory is Trump's uncharacteristic reticence to make more of the specific injury than he has done. I think if it had been a bullet wound he would undoubtedly have drawn as much attention to the injury and would have flaunted it as much as possible, but he hasn't, he just wants people to believe it was a bullet wound without drawing too much attention to it.

It's also quite a common male characteristic to draw attention and flaunt our "war wounds", a bit like the "scars" scene in "Jaws", but it appears Trump is shying away from such close scrutiny....

There is a piece missing, surely?

 

[Seagull58]

There's no hole, it's just darker.

Whether his ear got clipped by the bullet or not is difficult to tell. It certainly looks like it did, but I wouldn't expect it to heal perfectly (ears are really bad at healing, and old people don't heal well either).

Isn't that a hole?

 

[Seagull58]

Duplicate

 

[Seagull58]

So, what happened here to cause Harris to drop and Trump to shoot up? Was there an event or something?

View attachment 188762

Ducks and kittens disappearing?

 

[marlowe]

There is a piece missing, surely?View attachment 188764

I'm not convinced that it is. The outline is still there albeit darker. Also with a piece missing of that size it wouldn't have healed as perfectly as it has. I also don't think he had plastic surgery as we would most certainly have heard about it if he had, plus it wouldn't have healed so quickly.

 

[Triggaaar]

Isn't that a hole?View attachment 188765

I don't think so

 

[Zeberdi]

Duplicate

I get you want to prove a point here about the shooting (and maybe there are grounds for suspecting the Trump campaign of embellishment of the facts) but the original X tweet that stated this particular line of discussion was clearly pedalling conspiracy theories. However, you’ve been arguing the same point over and over for the past 4 or 5 pages of this thread and your numerous posts and pictures are drowning out any discussion of the debate which is happening tonight.

Any chance you could take this argument over to the Trump assassination thread now?

Here’s the link for you

[Politics] - Trump under fire.

Trump has a new theory on the assassination: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2024/08/20/donald-trump-campaign-event-howell-michigan-auto-industry-crime-immigration/74877358007/ Apparently Mexican auto workers are behind it! The bloke is absolutely nuts, but calling it a theory...

www.northstandchat.com

 

[Bodian]

The set of rules probably favours Trump in that he can't be asked direct questions by Harris. Therefore she won't be able to challenge him on his nonsense, but will have to go through the moderators. So, he'll get away with rambling on a variety of topics in his two minutes - and she won't be able to pick him up on much.

 

[North of Robertsbridge]

All polls are within the margin of error (2-3% at least) and 538 simply produce an average across multiple polls.

The US Guardian poll was just one of many that were conducted in the same time period.

These are average national figures that you are both quoting but because of the electoral college, national polls are a poor indicator of the outcome of US Elections.

The tightness of the race means the race will be lost and won in 7 key swing States especially Penn.

Yes, I know all that (and statistically MoE is 3% per 1,000 data points, ie people polled)

But the quote claimed to be 538’s National polling averages

Edited to add: I used to live in the US and had a nice big Rednecks for Obama sticker on my pickup truck, so have an interest in what’s going on

 

[Zeberdi]

Yes, I know all that (and statistically MoE is 3% per 1,000 data points, ie people polled)

But the quote claimed to be 538’s National polling averages

Edited to add: I used to live in the US and had a nice big Rednecks for Obama sticker on my pickup truck, so have an interest in what’s going on

We all have an interest in what is going on - it doesn’t make us right or wrong on these matters .

Yes, US Guardian poll trackers used the same raw poll data gathered by the 538 polls tracker but the analysis of that polling data to produce the US Guardian polling estimates was done by the Guardian.

“To calculate our polling averages, Guardian US took a combination of head-to-head and multi-candidate polls and calculated a rolling 10-day average for each candidate. Our tracker uses polls gathered by 538 and filters out lower-quality pollsters for national polls. Our state polling averages use a lower quality threshold for inclusion due to the small numbers of state polls. If there were no polls over the the 10-day period, we leave the average blank.”

I work in a scientific environment where not only do we have numerous national and local surveyors gathering raw data but we also have a large team of statistical analysts who produce an interpretation of the raw data. Data can be presented and interpreted in a myriad of ways and can be selective in what is or is not included.

The point is, you or anyone quoting national polling statistics regardless of who gathered the polling data or who interpreted it, is a poor indicator of the outcome of this election since it will be decided on the 7 swing States, especially Pennsylvania .

 

[sparkie]

So, what happened here to cause Harris to drop and Trump to shoot up? Was there an event or something?

View attachment 188762

Was it when Kennedy dropped out of the race and endorsed him ?

 

[BadFish]

Do you think this pic is genuine? It seems to show a hole in his ear and a piece missing at the edge.View attachment 188758

I am not sure I see a hole. Certainly a darker part but not actually a hole. That part of the ear is so close to the head I would think that if a bullet passed through there at most angles it would damage the head.

For me it is most likely that is not a hole

The nick looks more likely but given the speed at which it healed I wonder if it wasn't as bad as it looked.

If this was a staged event one has to ask:

Why do it this far from the election when it would have been more powerful closer?

How did they get all the necessary people in on it?

Why kill someone/pretend to kill someone? This adds another layer of complexity to an already highly complex Web of lies.

I will admit that when I first watched it I considered whether it was fake but I think that is more to do with seeing something shocking and struggling to comprehend it (and not trusting Trump as far as I can throw him).

 

[Greg Bobkin]

I am not sure I see a hole. Certainly a darker part but not actually a hole. That part of the ear is so close to the head I would think that if a bullet passed through there at most angles it would damage the head.

For me it is most likely that is not a hole

The nick looks more likely but given the speed at which it healed I wonder if it wasn't as bad as it looked.

If this was a staged event one has to ask:

Why do it this far from the election when it would have been more powerful closer?

How did they get all the necessary people in on it?

Why kill someone/pretend to kill someone? This adds another layer of complexity to an already highly complex Web of lies.

I will admit that when I first watched it I considered whether it was fake but I think that is more to do with seeing something shocking and struggling to comprehend it (and not trusting Trump as far as I can throw him).

I can see an a hole...

 

[Zeberdi]

*yawn*

 

[Change at Barnham]

I'm in Canada currently watching the ABC pre-debate discussion programme.
I didn't realise how biased ABC are in favour of Trump.
They are quoting all the things that Trump has said he would have done to avoid political situations like Gaza and the Afghanistan withdrawal, and pointing out all the things Biden has done wrong.
They are making out that Trump is the answer. WTF?