[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Mellotron]

Having listened a couple more times and taken comments on board, I still lean towards “bitch” but can see it being “bad”.

As others have said, who really cares. The rest of it is grim and ugly like everything else he says and does.

 

[StonehamPark]

My first impression was there are parts of that where the movement of the mouth does not map to the sounds of him talking.

Yea I can possibly see that - however I think he just slurred his last couple of words, imo.

 

[Zeberdi]

It's not clear to me which he says, but it's completely irrelevant anyway. He's a narcissistic misogynistic racist who tried to cheat democracy in order to stay in power, and paid an adult film star hush money. Whether or not he also called his opponent a bitch is neither here nor there.

Quite.

Eh? You agreed with Mellotron, but you added "Clearly calls her a ‘fcuking b*tch’."

GBM disagrees with you. It's definitely not clear. It's no big deal even if you're not right.

Yeah. Although I did initially agree with Mellotron and still do, it did seem clear to me initially,. However, when GBM posted a contrary opinion, I listened again and responded by saying ‘you maybe right’ , accepting it could be interpreted either way and concluded it didn’t matter.

As you say, we know his attitude to women and sees women as ‘bitches’ (the Hollywood Access tapes)

The “failing” NYT reported yesterday that he has allegedly used the word to describe Harris ’multiple’ times in private in recent days;

“Former US President Donald Trump has reportedly been in a “foul mood" over the past few weeks and has referred to Vice President Kamala Harris as a “b****" on multiple occasions in private, according to a report by The New York Times. The report is based on two sources who claim to have heard Trump make these remarks during different instances.”

https://www.axios.com/2024/08/10/trump-calls-harris-bitch-report?utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

He’s clearly very rattled by the opinion polls and the ‘weird’ trope.

On the other hand Harris running a blinder of a campaign at the moment that speaks of hope and joy.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Yea I can possibly see that - however I think he just slurred his last couple of words, imo.

Onset of senile dementia , imo

 

[Igzilla]

 

[StonehamPark]

Onset of senile dementia , imo

He's getting on, so could be.

He's certainly not "as sharp as ever", or as "sharp as a tack".

 

[Triggaaar]

Onset of senile dementia , imo

Of all the examples of Trump losing it, I don't think this one makes the top 20

I'm not convinced he has dementia. My guess is that he doesn't. But he's 78 years old, and people often get things wrong more at that age (not all do, but if I make it to 78 I'm pretty sure I'll be getting more wrong than usual).

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Of all the examples of Trump losing it, I don't think this one makes the top 20

I'm not convinced he has dementia. My guess is that he doesn't. But he's 78 years old, and people often get things wrong more at that age (not all do, but if I make it to 78 I'm pretty sure I'll be getting more wrong than usual).

He has refabricated an event in the past involving a helicopter crash

 

[StonehamPark]

He has refabricated an event in the past involving a helicopter crash

He fabricates an event(s) every time he's on a stage or in front of a camera.

 

[Crawley Dingo]

If you're searching for articles questioning the reliability of Rasmussen, you'll find a lot.

Rasmussen Reports Bias and Reliability | Ad Fontes Media

Ad Fontes Media rates Rasmussen Reports, focusing on public opinion polling, as skews right in terms of bias and most reliable in terms ...

adfontesmedia.com

"Ad Fontes Media rates Rasmussen Reports in the Strong Right category of bias"

I don't know why you want to give the impression that Trump is doing well in the polls.

Is this right bias due to an industry mean or to the outcome? they don't say to avoid legal action.

I'm not interested in the polls as 99% chance of H Clinton getting elected. I said this bias was for the benefit of Democrats to prevent another coup at their congress.

Harris has released no policies given no speech debates and didn't win a primary and yet they would have you believe she is storming in the polls on the back of a tanking economy as VP. These polls are not credible.

 

[StonehamPark]

These polls are not credible.

I cannot take any poll as credible after 2016... or 2008... or 2004.
Nor British betting exchanges, or (manufactured) social media sentiment/waves.

 

[Zeberdi]

Harris has released no policies given no speech debates and didn't win a primary and yet they would have you believe she is storming in the polls on the back of a tanking economy as VP. These polls are not credible.

But the one at the top of the thread is - that is what really matters here and she’s rockin’ it .

Good old NSC Harris Poll

 

[Triggaaar]

Is this right bias due to an industry mean or to the outcome?

Without studying it, I don't know the details. But some publications lean left, some lean right, and the same is true with some pollsters.

I'm not interested in the polls as 99% chance of H Clinton getting elected. I said this bias was for the benefit of Democrats to prevent another coup at their congress.

Your poll has Trump on 47, Harris on 44. You think that will make the Democrats want to change candidate? Obviously you're just being silly. And calling it a coup is just childish. The Democrats needed to pick a leader late on, when Biden stepped down, and they're happy with their choice. At least the public will get to choose. Many times in the UK we just get a new PM with no public vote at all.

Harris has released no policies given no speech debates and didn't win a primary and yet they would have you believe she is storming in the polls on the back of a tanking economy as VP. These polls are not credible.

She's not storming the polls, but she's currently got a slight lead.

Trump, meanwhile, doesn't talk policies, he just calls his opponents names. He said how much he respected Walz, and what a good job he'd done, and then when Kamala named Walz, suddenly Trump started lying and pretending Walz had done a bad job. It's embarrassing. And Trump won the Presidency in 2016 with the promise of building a wall and making America Great again. He did neither. And yet you'd have us believe he is storming the polls.

I assume you're just a windup merchant. Each to their own.

 

[US Seagull]

Of all the examples of Trump losing it, I don't think this one makes the top 20

I'm not convinced he has dementia. My guess is that he doesn't. But he's 78 years old, and people often get things wrong more at that age (not all do, but if I make it to 78 I'm pretty sure I'll be getting more wrong than usual).

He has a family history of dementia. FWIW. His father was so far gone at the end that they'd just bring him blank pieces of paper to sign because he believed he was still in charge of his business empire.

 

[A1X]

I'm not interested in the polls as 99% chance of H Clinton getting elected. I said this bias was for the benefit of Democrats to prevent another coup at their congress.

It’s worth remembering, of course, that Clinton won the popular vote and it’s only the weird setup of the electoral college which handed Trump victory.

In any other democracy around the world, Hilary wins in 2016.

 

[Machiavelli]

Without studying it, I don't know the details. But some publications lean left, some lean right, and the same is true with some pollsters.

That just isn't the case. Pollsters aim at accuracy, not political positions. It's pretty tricky to be accurate, and failures are due to (usually outdated) methodology which, subsequently, gets corrected.

 

[Triggaaar]

That just isn't the case. Pollsters aim at accuracy, not political positions.

Over here I'm sure you're right. Over there, however, I think some have bias (although I accept most probably aim to be accurate).

 

[US Seagull]

That just isn't the case. Pollsters aim at accuracy, not political positions. It's pretty tricky to be accurate, and failures are due to (usually outdated) methodology which, subsequently, gets corrected.

It depends on who's paying the bills. Trump isn't going to pay for a poll that says he's losing. Regardless of reality.

Some pollsters are more than happy to play that game. But obviously there's only so far you can push it.