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[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

Who will win the 2024 Presidential Election?

  • President Joe Biden - Democrat

    Votes: 3 0.7%
  • Donald Trump - Republican

    Votes: 173 41.9%
  • Vice President, Kamala Harris - Democrat

    Votes: 217 52.5%
  • Other Democratic candidate tbc

    Votes: 20 4.8%

  • Total voters
    413
  • This poll will close: .






Curious Orange

Punxsatawney Phil
Jul 5, 2003
10,225
On NSC for over two decades...


nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
18,572
Gods country fortnightly
There's little point is trying to digest most US media on Trump or Biden, ridiculously partisan on both sides. If I haven't heard of the source, worth looking into the actors behind it first.

Usual giveaways are the use the word "truth", "unbiased","unfiltered","uncensored" or "independent". You don't hear AP, Reuters, BBC or NPR using these terms
 
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BadFish

Huge Member
Oct 19, 2003
18,194
Talking points…

Bit one sided that article though.

It really is describing what the media has always done but only attributing the practice to the media they don't like.

If they wish for a more honest, truthful and unbiased media then they have missed a trick in writing such a biased and dishonest piece.
 






Change at Barnham

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2011
5,466
Bognor Regis
Can anyone reassure me and tell me that Trump is not going to be President of the most powerful country in the world again?
It seems inevitable from everything I can see.
Absolutely no criminal act he has performed has harmed him.

It seems unbelievable, but it’s happening.
It’s just like the gold bars sliding out of the vehicle in The Italian Job.
 


Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,888
West west west Sussex
Can anyone reassure me and tell me that Trump is not going to be President of the most powerful country in the world again?
It seems inevitable from everything I can see.
Absolutely no criminal act he has performed has harmed him.

It seems unbelievable, but it’s happening.
It’s just like the gold bars sliding out of the vehicle in The Italian Job.
No - nobody should be able too.

This campaign is running in parallel with 2016.
The left (well centre right) can't believe anyone would vote for Trump.
Their incredulity is seen as mocking and belittling.
That entrenches the views of those being mocked.

The 'opposition' is offering up very little by way of facts and are behind seemingly the only person capable of losing.

This whole scenario is playing out exactly the same as 2016, Brexit, Johnson v Corbyn.
 
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Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,918
Can anyone reassure me and tell me that Trump is not going to be President of the most powerful country in the world again?
It seems inevitable from everything I can see.
Absolutely no criminal act he has performed has harmed him.

It seems unbelievable, but it’s happening.
It’s just like the gold bars sliding out of the vehicle in The Italian Job.
No one has a crystal ball but word is on the ground, at least in Michigan, the Dems are very concerned about Trump but resigned themselves long ago to get behind Biden rather than field another candidate - there was a belief Biden would be the only one to beat him - that’s come back to haunt them - the majority of Dems support Biden and will vote for him just to keep out Trump but feel he is too old to do the job. I wrote to family members back in December 2022 who work for the DNC and said I thought it would be a mistake if Biden should stand for a second term - it didn’t go down very well!

Americans largely did not want a repeat of the 2016 race between these two candidates- they wanted a change. But they are polling support for Trump on policies. Biden’s immigration policies and his restructuring plan has yet to have an effect (in part because the Republicans in the Senate has blocked funding each step of the way) and the levels of post-Covid global inflation hurt Americans badly and while inflation levels have gone down, Biden is paying the price. Trump‘s isolationist policies and rhetoric is winning over large swathes of the electorate who believe by blocking imports from China (even at the risk of triggering world-wide trade wars and uncontrolled import tariffs) and drilling for oil in the Arctic National Reserve (against existing environmental regulations) Trump will give them more money in their pocket.

Not only is Trump an isolationist (when he doesn’t need his fascist friends to help get him elected). but he is a popularist who espouses whatever he thinks the electorate want to hear at the podium. It is difficult to counter that with an agenda that seeks global cooperation, equitable immigration policies and sustainable policies with regard to environmental protection and climate change. Biden’s policy of unconditionally supporting Israel has angered some of his support especially in Michigan but he has modified his approach somewhat in recent days. People forget too easily that Trump’s support for Netanyahu went so far as to come up with a ‘peace plan’ that moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem, handed over a third of the occupied territories in the West Bank to Israel and, ruled out a two State solution that would grant independence for the Palestinians - if the electorate think Trump’s policies on Israel will bring peace in the ME they are sorely mistaken and have very short memories.

In short, polls are indicating electors will vote for whoever promises to give them more money in their pocket - such is the shallow, gullible and selfish world we live in.

 


Badger Boy

Mr Badger
Jan 28, 2016
3,658
Can anyone reassure me and tell me that Trump is not going to be President of the most powerful country in the world again?
It seems inevitable from everything I can see.
Absolutely no criminal act he has performed has harmed him.

It seems unbelievable, but it’s happening.
It’s just like the gold bars sliding out of the vehicle in The Italian Job.
It's all noise. He won't be president again. His supporters are vocal and passionate but there aren't enough of them.

I'm not 100% convinced he'll even be the nominee of the Republican party on election day. This is going to be an historic election in the US, genuinely the most insane and history-defying they've ever had.
 


Stat Brother

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
73,888
West west west Sussex
It's all noise. He won't be president again. His supporters are vocal and passionate but there aren't enough of them.

I'm not 100% convinced he'll even be the nominee of the Republican party on election day. This is going to be an historic election in the US, genuinely the most insane and history-defying they've ever had.
My 'unbelieveable Jeff' of this election is the other way round.
The Dems are feeding Biden to Trump and then at the 11th hour swap him out for some young vibrate go getter - giving Trump nowhere to go.

Ain't gonna happen but it's a pipe dream to save my sanity.
 






Chicken Run

Member Since Jul 2003
NSC Patron
Jul 17, 2003
19,802
Valley of Hangleton
Thank you @Zeberdi for your detailed reply. I'm hoping @Badger Boy is correct but unfortunately I think @Stat Brother is going to be more accurate.
It's too depressing and not good for anyone's mental health. Well, certainly not mine.
I know easier said than done but try your best not to allow the election of a President in a country over 3,000 nautical miles away and several time zones affect something as important as your personal mental health, unless of course you live there? Do you live there? If not one thing i’d suggest is to put this thread on ignore if the potential of Frump is affecting your mental health 👍
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,070
Faversham
No one has a crystal ball but word is on the ground, at least in Michigan, the Dems are very concerned about Trump but resigned themselves long ago to get behind Biden rather than field another candidate - there was a belief Biden would be the only one to beat him - that’s come back to haunt them - the majority of Dems support Biden and will vote for him just to keep out Trump but feel he is too old to do the job. I wrote to family members back in December 2022 who work for the DNC and said I thought it would be a mistake if Biden should stand for a second term - it didn’t go down very well!

Americans largely did not want a repeat of the 2016 race between these two candidates- they wanted a change. But they are polling support for Trump on policies. Biden’s immigration policies and his restructuring plan has yet to have an effect (in part because the Republicans in the Senate has blocked funding each step of the way) and the levels of post-Covid global inflation hurt Americans badly and while inflation levels have gone down, Biden is paying the price. Trump‘s isolationist policies and rhetoric is winning over large swathes of the electorate who believe by blocking imports from China (even at the risk of triggering world-wide trade wars and uncontrolled import tariffs) and drilling for oil in the Arctic National Reserve (against existing environmental regulations) Trump will give them more money in their pocket.

Not only is Trump an isolationist (when he doesn’t need his fascist friends to help get him elected). but he is a popularist who espouses whatever he thinks the electorate want to hear at the podium. It is difficult to counter that with an agenda that seeks global cooperation, equitable immigration policies and sustainable policies with regard to environmental protection and climate change. Biden’s policy of unconditionally supporting Israel has angered some of his support especially in Michigan but he has modified his approach somewhat in recent days. People forget too easily that Trump’s support for Netanyahu went so far as to come up with a ‘peace plan’ that moved the US Embassy to Jerusalem, handed over a third of the occupied territories in the West Bank to Israel and, ruled out a two State solution that would grant independence for the Palestinians - if the electorate think Trump’s policies on Israel will bring peace in the ME they are sorely mistaken and have very short memories.

In short, polls are indicating electors will vote for whoever promises to give them more money in their pocket - such is the shallow, gullible and selfish world we live in.

Yep. Unless Trump failed to deliver on key promises that affect the wealth and sense of freedom of those who voted for him last time, one can understand such voters going for Trump again. In a nation where less than half the population have a passport, and don't think much beyond their family circle, it can be rather hard to get traction over issues rooted in the 'greater good'. Especially when the evidence that the greater good is best served by whatever policy is on offer is not transparent.
 




Badger Boy

Mr Badger
Jan 28, 2016
3,658
Thank you @Zeberdi for your detailed reply. I'm hoping @Badger Boy is correct but unfortunately I think @Stat Brother is going to be more accurate.
It's too depressing and not good for anyone's mental health. Well, certainly not mine.
It really isn't worth worrying about at this stage. The election is so far off, there is so much to happen between now and then and the vast majority of the US are not engaged in the election yet. It's hard to believe, but there are so many people who aren't paying attention all of the time. As soon it starts getting closer and the debates take place, people will start to listen and they'll start to make a choice.

Trump's vision of hate and revenge won't win over enough people. History will show that Joe Biden has been an historically good president, despite the unproductive congress and the chaos of the MAGA fruitcakes. Biden's administration, not the man, his administration have got a lot done during this term. Some of it people won't care about (the CHIPS act being one, although that is a major piece of legislation) but some of it people will do ($35 cap on Insulin costs, the Infrastructure Bill which Trump wanted but couldn't do - Biden's administration got it passed and have built bridges, relaid roads etc - all very tangible).

Biden will win the election and I am confident he'll win the Electoral College which is different, but the only thing which matters. Mental to think that Biden could win the vote by millions, but ultimately lose the presidency. I don't think he will.
 


Zeberdi

“Vorsprung durch Technik”
NSC Patron
Oct 20, 2022
6,918
Yep. Unless Trump failed to deliver on key promises that affect the wealth and sense of freedom of those who voted for him last time, one can understand such voters going for Trump again. In a nation where less than half the population have a passport, and don't think much beyond their family circle, it can be rather hard to get traction over issues rooted in the 'greater good'. Especially when the evidence that the greater good is best served by whatever policy is on offer is not transparent.
Exactly this. You understand!
 


JBizzle

Well-known member
Apr 18, 2010
6,222
Seaford
It really isn't worth worrying about at this stage. The election is so far off, there is so much to happen between now and then and the vast majority of the US are not engaged in the election yet. It's hard to believe, but there are so many people who aren't paying attention all of the time. As soon it starts getting closer and the debates take place, people will start to listen and they'll start to make a choice.

Trump's vision of hate and revenge won't win over enough people. History will show that Joe Biden has been an historically good president, despite the unproductive congress and the chaos of the MAGA fruitcakes. Biden's administration, not the man, his administration have got a lot done during this term. Some of it people won't care about (the CHIPS act being one, although that is a major piece of legislation) but some of it people will do ($35 cap on Insulin costs, the Infrastructure Bill which Trump wanted but couldn't do - Biden's administration got it passed and have built bridges, relaid roads etc - all very tangible).

Biden will win the election and I am confident he'll win the Electoral College which is different, but the only thing which matters. Mental to think that Biden could win the vote by millions, but ultimately lose the presidency. I don't think he will.
As always, it will depend on who captures he swing voters and undecideds. Do you prefer the doddery old gentleman, who seems nice but appears forgetful and indecisive, or the bombastic loudmouth who says what you may want to hear but is only in it for himself?

I actually think that many of the undecided voters will stay undecided and remain at home, meaning that the election may well play out similar to the last one (I hope). The two sides are so entrenched I'd be surprised to see many swing from Trump to Biden or vice versa.
 


Badger Boy

Mr Badger
Jan 28, 2016
3,658
As always, it will depend on who captures he swing voters and undecideds. Do you prefer the doddery old gentleman, who seems nice but appears forgetful and indecisive, or the bombastic loudmouth who says what you may want to hear but is only in it for himself?

I actually think that many of the undecided voters will stay undecided and remain at home, meaning that the election may well play out similar to the last one (I hope). The two sides are so entrenched I'd be surprised to see many swing from Trump to Biden or vice versa.
I think that's totally wrong - true undecideds will vote Biden because Trump is a maniac. I don't believe undecideds will break for Trump like they did in 2016, in 2016 he was a comedy character and potentially a net positive for the country. And he was against Hillary Clinton, who was historically unpopular. The circumstances of that election allowed Trump to sneak a tiny Electoral College victory. Now, 8 years on, America has seen what a Trump term was like and it was catastrophic. He's not a potential net positive any more, he's a guaranteed net negative so there won't be any benefit of the doubt. The Biden administration has been very successful and providing the messaging is right, true undecideds will vote Biden and the abortion debate will probably help that case.

Undecideds who just aren't confident enough to admit they like Trump because he's a total bastard will vote for him if they choose to vote, but if they choose not to bother then all the better.
 






nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
14,532
Manchester
As always, it will depend on who captures he swing voters and undecideds. Do you prefer the doddery old gentleman, who seems nice but appears forgetful and indecisive, or the bombastic loudmouth who says what you may want to hear but is only in it for himself?

I actually think that many of the undecided voters will stay undecided and remain at home, meaning that the election may well play out similar to the last one (I hope). The two sides are so entrenched I'd be surprised to see many swing from Trump to Biden or vice versa.
I can't imagine that there'd be that many undecideds in an election that involves Donald Trump.

Something that gives me hope is that, based on the 2020 election, the Democrats seem to have a very capable set of activists in various swing states that encourage both voter registration and getting to the polls at the election itself. Georgia, for example, had been a Republican win every 4 years since '92 when Clinton was first elected - it stayed red even during both of Obama's wins - but it turned blue last time out. Tighter than a gnat's chuff, admitedly, but encouraging.
 


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