[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[BadFish]

He was thrown a "Have you stopped beating your wife" type question and delt with it correctly, Ive mention the postal vote fraud go and watch 2000 mules film for some insight.

It wasn't an insurrection. Ho do you attempt a revolution with virtually no guns in a gun crazy country?

If it wasn't an insurrection, what was it?

 

[Brightonfan1983]

go and watch 2000 mules film for some insight.

Have a word with yourself!

 

[Lever]

If it wasn't an insurrection, what was it?

I anticipate an answer that a Trump cultist would give. Like Brexit it will be based on emotional conviction rather than evidence.

 

[Brightonfan1983]

Good point, I guess not no.

I expect though that will be due to Trump being prevented from doing what he wanted by the deep state, the swamp, the MSN and the WEF and that he needs another 4 years to get it sorted.

Well he certainly didn't pocket as much money from foreign states as he'd've liked to have done, so there's that too.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

"apparently"?? Source?

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/16/trump-iowa-ap-call-projection-why

MSN

Early call of Trump as winner of Iowa Caucuses stirs anger. Here's why it happened

The Associated Press explained how it declared Donald Trump the early winner. But candidates and Iowans were angry.

www.yahoo.com

 

[BadFish]

I anticipate an answer that a Trump cultist would give. Like Brexit it will be based on emotional conviction rather than evidence.

Don't know why I asked really, the poster has a track record of flawed logic and thinking and has shown a lack of ability to judge sources and information with his 'I don't trust main stream media' nonsense.

Little expectation of anything worthwhile.

 

[Brightonfan1983]

it will be based on emotional conviction rather than evidence.

- which is the scary part for me. If it was all over politics, and ideas and visions, doing the best for the country, then all well and good. Someone I read said the R party is now a 'movement', not a party.
Sam Kinison once asked why it was just the people who tried to do good get killed. Jesus, JFK, Martin Luther King, Sadat... I think about that a lot!

 

[Seagull58]

I would require a direct link to that I dont trust the MSM as ive seen how they twist words. Still its a constitutional republic not a constitutional democracy. I'll wait.

Oh FFS. You can see his post on Truth Social if you have the inclination. You are in a cult.

 

[Brightonfan1983]

This, for me, is the key bit. WAY too early to call anything.

I don't really understand their election cycles and caucuses etc, but wasn't the Iowa vote the same as asking a load of Brighton fans in, say, Peacehaven, to vote for who they want as their manager next season? Chances are it'd be RdZ.

So I don't get why people are getting so excited.

 

[Zeberdi]

This, for me, is the key bit. WAY too early to call anything.

Not at all - The press will always call a mathematical result when they know it before all votes are in - they do with a general election too and they will do it with the Primaries. They aren’t declaring Trump to be Republican Presidential Candidate, the caucuses didn’t do that, just that Trump got the most votes in Iowa and therefore he gets the most delegates for Iowa at the Republican Party Convention in July 2024. The nominee for each Presidential Candidate will be voted on at the republican and democrat Conventions by all the delegates voted in from 48 States’ Primaries or caucuses .

Although again, the press will declare the nominees ahead of the Conventions since once all the Primaries and Caucuses results are in, which are well covered by the media, the Candidate with the most support going into the Conventions will be known. It would be a major upset if either of the Conventions voted against a Candidate with the most delegates.

In Iowa - Polls of declared voting intentions of those planning to attend the caucuses and early returns were already enough to show Trump had an insurmountable lead in Iowa, regardless of the final count since the weather had resulted in a low turn out - calling the result early didn’t impact in any way on the final result.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Not at all - The press will always call a mathematical result when they know it before all votes are in - they do with a general election too and they will do it with the Primaries. They aren’t declaring Trump to be Republican Presidential Candidate, the caucuses didn’t do that, just that Trump got the most votes in Iowa and therefore he gets the most delegates for Iowa at the Republican Party Convention in July 2024. The nominee for each Presidential Candidate will be voted on at the republican and democrat Conventions by all the delegates voted in from 48 States’ Primaries or caucuses .

Although again, the press will declare the nominees ahead of the Conventions since once all the Primaries and Caucuses results are in, which are well covered by the media, the Candidate with the most support going into the Conventions will be known. It would be a major upset if either of the Conventions voted against a Candidate with the most delegates.

In Iowa - Polls of declared voting intentions of those planning to attend the caucuses and early returns were already enough to show Trump had an insurmountable lead in Iowa, regardless of the final count since the weather had resulted in a low turn out - calling the result early didn’t impact in any way on the final result.

I honestly don't have a clue what led you to post all that, because it's got nothing to do with the point I was trying to make

I was referring to the fact that people seem to be declaring Trump the next president. When, just this afternoon, I saw two polls that put Biden ahead.

 

[Zeberdi]

I honestly don't have a clue what led you to post all that, because it's got nothing to do with the point I was trying to make

I was referring to the fact that people seem to be declaring Trump the next president. When, just this afternoon, I saw two polls that put Biden ahead.

Sorry - I didn’t read back on what you were responding to - the last posts I had read about declaring too early were all about declaring the Iowa caucus results too early (relating to the press) and someone quoted you also referring to the Iowa caucuses not the General Election. Miscommunication?

Who was calling Trump to be the new President after the caucuses? - I think people are just saying it is very possible he may beat Biden but it will almost certainly be a Biden-Trump race again unless one of them falls ill/drops out.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

Sorry - I didn’t read back on what you were responding to - the last posts I had read about declaring to early was relating to the press calling the Iowa caucus result to early.

Who was calling Trump to be the new President?

Loads of people - on here and elsewhere - seem to think it's a dead cert because of the result in Iowa.

 

[Brightonfan1983]

Not at all - The press will always call a mathematical result when they know it before all votes are in - they do with a general election too and they will do it with the Primaries. They aren’t declaring Trump to be Republican Presidential Candidate, the caucuses didn’t do that, just that Trump got the most votes in Iowa and therefore he gets the most delegates for Iowa at the Republican Party Convention in July 2024. The nominee for each Presidential Candidate will be voted on at the republican and democrat Conventions by all the delegates voted in from 48 States’ Primaries or caucuses .

Although again, the press will declare the nominees ahead of the Conventions since once all the Primaries and Caucuses results are in, which are well covered by the media, the Candidate with the most support going into the Conventions will be known. It would be a major upset if either of the Conventions voted against a Candidate with the most delegates.

In Iowa - Polls of declared voting intentions of those planning to attend the caucuses and early returns were already enough to show Trump had an insurmountable lead in Iowa, regardless of the final count since the weather had resulted in a low turn out - calling the result early didn’t impact in any way on the final result.

I still don't understand - (and I know I could go to Wikipedia but it sounds like you could explain it better) -

What's a caucus? Do we have an equivalent?
Who or what are delegates? And why is it good to have a lot of them?
Who or what's a nominee? Sounds like they're deputy for the actual candidate?

And don't get me started on the election-proper and the electoral college votes...

 

[Mental Lental]

Loads of people - on here and elsewhere - seem to think it's a dead cert because of the result in Iowa.

Yeah some real Chicken Licken "sky is falling!" stuff on here. He's still got to get a constitutionally changing decision from the Supreme Court to even be allowed on the ballot in the first place. Then despite the American right wing media crowing about poll numbers and "red waves".....Where it really matters at the ballot box....Reps just keep on losing to Dems. DeSantis' old seat in Florida just flipped blue which is a major coup for Florida Democrats. Although this story got lost among all the "Trump wins in Trumpland!" headlines about what was always gonna be a foregone conclusion. Nikki Haley's New Hampshire numbers have got him worried to the point where he's having meltdowns on Truth Social and using racial slurs. Although I still think he'll win there.

We still have lots of juicy discovery phases on his myriad court cases. The NY fraud decision is due before the end of the month where he'll see most of his money gone and banned from doing business in New York. That alone could cause him to have an aneurysm.


Fingers crossed.

 

[Zeberdi]

Loads of people - on here and elsewhere - seem to think it's a dead cert because of the result in Iowa.

Fair enough - I must have missed those posts or at least skimmed over them not taking them too seriously since there is an air of unrealistic fatalism about that pov.

- So I completely agree, as far as the GE, it is way too early - as I posted above, Iowa is a strong Republican State with 75% of Republican voters Evangelicals, a concentrated support base that Trump has cultivated - Trump was already way ahead of Haley and Desantis going into the caucuses on the national polls so the results aren’t surprising. Iowa while often referred to as the ‘test’ State for Republican feeling, it actually only makes up 1.6% of the Convention vote (40 delegates). Let’s see how he does in the Democratic States and swing States’ primaries. The winner of Iowa doesn’t necessarily win the election either - Cruz won in 2016 - Trump came second.

 

[Seagull58]

2000 Mules (2022) ⭐ 5.1 | Documentary

1h 29m

www.imdb.com

I'm sure if the Democrats had agreed to an independent investigation it would of put my mind to rest, although yours is already settled regardless. I seem to remember the UK had an independent investigation into postal vote fraud. Did that traumatise you?

2000 mules is a work of pure fiction that has been totally debunkrd and repudiated except in the minds of Trumpian cult members.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

It is complicated but as brief as I can:

1. Caucuses - are meetings organised throughout the State by the political parties in some States instead of State-run Primaries - there are only 5 States which have caucuses. (See ‘Caucus States 2024’ link) The others have State wide elections in March in which anyone registered to vote, can vote. The purpose of caucuses and Primaries are to decide how many delegates each candidate gets to attend the party Convention - each delegate represents a vote at the Convention - anyone can attend a caucus but only if they are registered party members - they just turn up and basically go and stand near their candidates in a large room - after speeches there is a show of hands. The Democratic caucuses will be all mail in ballots not votes cast at the caucuses. We have no equivalent unless you count hustings which have no vote but where the candidates address voters/make speeches.

2. Each State has a proportionate number of available delegates/voters allowed to attend the Convention - Iowa has 40 - out of that number Trump won a majority (20?) —all those Iowa delegates then attend the Party Convention locked into their candidate. The Presidential Candidate is the one that has won the most delegates from all caucuses and Primaries combined. At the Republican party Convention for example, a Candidate needs to have at least 1,215 votes ( a majority of the votes out of a total of 2,400 delegate votes) to be nominated as the Presidential Candidate

3. The nominee is the Candidate that has won the most delegate votes from the primaries and caucuses (so it is more often than not just a formality), however, if no one candidate has won such a majority, the votes are all disregarded and the Convention votes from scratch. The ‘nominee’ is who the Convention decides will represent each party in the General Election as the Presidential candidate and race to the White House. As it stands currently, Biden and Trump are looking likely to be the nominees for Presidential Candidates based on opinion polls and the lead they have over other candidates. The Republicans have 6 candidates, the Democrats 3. (Biden, Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson - plenty of info on Wiki about the latter two).

Caucus States 2024

worldpopulationreview.com

What is a caucus? How Nevada's two days of voting are different

Nevada will hold both a Republican primary and caucuses in 2024. Here's what will be different about the two days of voting and how the caucuses work.

www.cbsnews.com

And people mock FPTP.......<sigh>

 

[Zeberdi]

He's still got to get a constitutionally changing decision from the Supreme Court to even be allowed on the ballot in the first place.

It probably makes little difference but just to clarify, it is the other way round. The implementation of decisions to remove Trump from the ballots in those lower court cases, eg in Colorado and Maine, were suspended by the respective judges once the Supreme Court accepted Trump’s appeal. If SCOTUS rules in favour of Trump’s Appeal, he stays on the ballots, if he loses the Appeal, any votes cast for him in those States before the oral arguments on Feb 8 in any Primaries postal ballots will be discounted. Trump’s Lawyers aren’t asking for a change in the Constitution but for an interpretation of it ie whether what Trump did on 6th Jan amounts to ‘insurrection’ for the purposes of the 14th Amendment and whether section 3 (banning any officer from future public office who is guilty of such) applies to Trump since the Presidency falls outside the scope of S3 - not something SCOTUS has ruled on before since no POTUS has ever engaged in insurrection.

 

[lasvegan]

If (notice the ‘if’, this means that I have not commented on whether Mr Trump is or isn’t) the opposition is a criminal then yes

“It is looking more and more likely that the only hope for American democracy is that the courts lock the crook up”

I was replying directly to your post quoted above. Where is the “if”?