[Politics] The 2024 US Election - *MATCH DAY*

[Bodian]

Err, no thanks.

There's plenty on this thread that I'm interested in, just can't be doing with the pontificating and points-scoring - on both 'sides'.

Haven't seen any point scoring. I have the trumpers on ignore. That probably explains it.

I guess it depends if you view 'correcting erroneous information', or 'challenging statements and comments made' as point-scoring, or as part of the wider debate!

 

[Crawley Dingo]

Oh dear.

 

[Mellotron]

the polls, mostly

Poll of polls don't really agree.

As per 538;

Sept 11th - Harris 2.4% lead
Sept 24th - Harris 2.4% lead
Oct 17th - Harris 2.4% lead

I'm aware swing states etc but broadly there isn't any big shift towards Trump. A very small one perhaps, but it is also true that Presidential races very consistently tighten a little just before the vote.

He may well win, but some of the comments on here over the last few days suggesting it's a done deal are slightly bizarre.

Especially as the one bit of actual evidence we have - early voting numbers in Georgia - suggests the exact opposite.

From the really quite right-leaning The Hill;

Early voting advantage to Democrats

 

[nwgull]

Poll of polls don't really agree.

As per 538;

Sept 11th - Harris 2.4% lead
Sept 24th - Harris 2.4% lead
Oct 17th - Harris 2.4%

I'm aware swing states etc but broadly there isn't any big shift towards Trump. A very small one perhaps, but it is also true that Presidential races very consistently tighten a little just before the vote.

He may well win, but some of the comments on here over the last few days suggesting it's a done deal are slightly bizarre.

Especially as the one bit of actual evidence we have - early voting numbers in Georgia - suggests the exact opposite.

From the really quite right-leaning The Hill;

Early voting advantage to Democrats

Those national polls would probably not be enough of a popular lead to give a win though. I know electoral calculas is very nuanced, so I can only go off of what happened in 2020. In this case Biden had a 4.5% national lead (51.3% to 46.8%), but even this only resulted in very narrow wins in key swing states - less than 1% in a few cases. If that reduction to 2.4% is proportional then Trump wins states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia, and ultimately the election.

 

[Mellotron]

Those national polls would probably not be enough of a popular lead to give a win though. If that reduction to 2.4% is proportional then Trump wins states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia, and ultimately the election.

Who knows. All depends on those small margins. Biden won Georgia by 11,000 votes. Harris has had a (likely) much, much bigger turnout in Georgia this time round. I see that as a big positive. If Harris wins Georgia it's looking difficult for Trump.

It's not a reduction to 2.4% particularly, as I just confirmed. The polls have basically barely moved a smidge for a month or so now. Not in any significant way.

He absolutely could win, it's just this narrative we've seen here recently that he's suddenly pushing into an unassailable lead that I am debunking, because it's utter bobbins.

 

[Pavilionaire]

He's won an environmental award for mixing sand for his golf-course apparently

It's a concrete lie.

 

[Zeberdi]

He absolutely could win, it's just this narrative we've seen here recently that he's suddenly pushing into an unassailable lead that I am debunking, because it's utter bobbins.

i agree with you completely but don’t think anyone here is quite saying Trump is pushing into an ‘unassailable lead’. At
least I certainly haven’t.

My original comments were in response to one poster saying ’Harris will definitely win’ - I just don’t think we are there with saying that.

I was saying MSM is reporting that Trump has gained some momentum (which was taken out of context to mean Harris couldn’t win - she could.) and he has narrowed the lead Harris had in some swing States.

Polls averaged together show that the momentum Harris had after taking over from Biden has stalled - she closed the 6% lead left by Biden and both candidates now polling within the margin of error..

The point is, the election is impossible to call and no one can realistically call it one way or another. As you say Trump could very well win - up until now, I think most of us didn’t really believe that but it has become a very real prospect.

Donald Trump's got the momentum, according to new polls. Can it hold?

Trump appears to have seized the momentum from Vice President Kamala Harris three weeks before Election Day.

www.newsweek.com

https://www.npr.org/2024/10/15/nx-s1-5153420/swing-state-map-donald-trump-kamala-harris-polls

Trump gaining in polling to win the ‘Blue Wall’ states as Harris poll momentum slows

Vice president is weighed down by concerns about Gaza conflict, dampening Democratic enthusiasm

www.independent.co.uk

New polls give Donald Trump momentum, can he hold till the November 5, U.S. elections?

According to new polls, Donald Trump has gained traction, particularly in key swing states such as Arizona and North Carolina, narrowing Vice President Kamala Harris' earlier lead. Experts believe Trump's recent success stems from his emphasis on core voter concerns.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[US Seagull]

Trump exhausted. If anybody if came out that Biden was "exhausted", it would be game over:

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/18/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/trump-skips-another-interview-00184327

In response, a Trump adviser told Shade Room producers that Trump was “exhausted and refusing [some] interviews but that could change” at any time, according to two people familiar with the conversations.

To be fair, the campaign has pushed back:

Trump national press secretary Karoline Leavitt, while making clear she wasn’t part of the back-and-forth for the Shade Room interview, said last night that the idea that Trump was exhausted “is unequivocally false.”

“President Trump is running laps around Kamala Harris on the campaign trail,” Leavitt said. “And has done media interviews every day this week. He has more energy and a harder work ethic than anyone in politics.”

Although the idea that he has "more energy" and a "harder work ethic" is just comically absurd.

“President Trump has never backed down from any interview,” Leavitt added. “This is a man who held a CNN town hall in the middle of the Republican primary, for goodness’ sake.”

Just ignore all the interviews he has backed out of (see 60 minutes for one)

 

[Igzilla]

Oh dear.

A betting site? You really are a moron.

 

[Zeberdi]

Trump exhausted. If anybody if came out that Biden was "exhausted", it would be game over:

It’s all that dancing.

He’s not used to it

Exhausting!

 

[peterward]

Oh dear.

Kalshi is a betting market representation, some might argue the bookies rarely get it wrong, but then again with the need to appear to be winning significantly (as floating voters may prefer to back the inevitable winner/favourite), or with a need to challenge a Harris win and claim election fraud, it may well be a useful use of funds by vested pro Trump interests to simply throw money at the betting markets for their desired outcome.

We could get Wilf Zaha as odds on to be next Albion manager, if enough people threw enough money at it.

It doesnt really give any sort of accurate, non manipulated polling

 

[Bozza]

It’s all that dancing.

View attachment 190487

He’s not used to it

View attachment 190485

Exhausting!

View attachment 190488

That, and wanking off giraffes...

 

[Bry Nylon]

That, and wanking off giraffes...

Really?

At least I'm not the only one banned from Colchester Zoo.

 

[Madafwo]

That, and wanking off giraffes...

Is that how you get people to be moderators?

 

[Bozza]

Is that how you get people to be moderators?

Nearly.

Wanking off honey badgers.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

Trump going on about "the enemy within" means anyone who isn't a Republican voter.

 

[US Seagull]

That, and wanking off giraffes...

Loved that when I saw it yesterday.

It's baffling that anybody thinks Trump is "tough". He has never been tough. He's a paper tiger. And a wet one at that.

 

[Crawley Dingo]

A betting site? You really are a moron.

Betting sites tend to be more accurate as people are backing up their mouth with money(In the short term), so who is the moron? It is exaggerated a bit imo but it reflects trends.

 

[Triggaaar]

Nearly.

Wanking off honey badgers.

I often wondered why you had a honey badger outfit

 

[US Seagull]

Betting sites tend to be more accurate as people are backing up their mouth with money(In the short term), so who is the moron? It is exaggerated a bit imo but it reflects trends.

They are also easily swung by fanatical cult members with more money than sense (which is to say, not very much money).

There is almost certainly a non-zero number of Trump idiots supporters who have bet on Trump because they think they are somehow "helping".