Still can't beat the top six but does that matter

[Zebedee]

Does anyone know where we were in the table last year after 17 games?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Does anyone know where we were in the table last year after 17 games?

12th with 23 points.

 

[Zebedee]

12th with 23 points.

Thanks. That's good to know and a sign that we're going in the right direction.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Sorry. This kind of analysis is only valid in retrospect as a means of interpreting the season. Meaningless and misleading after 17 games. But the hypothesis is interesting: can we consistently fail to beat the teams above us and still go up? Definitely if your form against those below you is imaculate. Does it bode well if out get promotes though? Doubt it.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

The Huddersfueld result and where they were before does not matter.

Anyway you are all missing the point. I think it a good thing. It shows we are beating teams when we need to even if we are not quite ready to compete with the top teams YET.

One of the reasons that teams we have beaten are below us, is because we have beaten them. I know that's stating the obvious, but it's the only explanation.

 

[Giraffe]

One of the reasons that teams we have beaten are below us, is because we have beaten them. I know that's stating the obvious, but it's the only explanation.

Although that becomes less relevant the more games we play. I did this analysis after seven games and frankly yes it was a waste of time. Now though it does stack up a bit.

In 1990-1991 we reached the play offs despite being roundly beaten by the top three each time and ended the season on a negative goal difference but still in 6th place. I can see this season being similar, although don't think we will end up with a negative goal difference.

The other point to make is that although we haven't beaten any of the six we have only lost by small margins or drawn. In 90/91 we were definitely outclassed by the better teams. This season we are only one striker short of competing with them. Missed chances v Hull, Cardiff and Middlesborough. Missed penalty v Leicester. We are not far behind them at all.

 

[Acker79]

Further to the comments about the end of the season being the most relevant time, of the teams that finished in the top six last season, only three of them were top six after 17 games.

 

[Giraffe]

Further to the comments about the end of the season being the most relevant time, of the teams that finished in the top six last season, only three of them were top six after 17 games.

I like that stat very much. Any others?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

pretty similar to last season - how many of the top 6 did we beat?

Southampton and Cardfiff. Two of our best performances of the season.

 

[Simster]

Sorry. This kind of analysis is only valid in retrospect as a means of interpreting the season. Meaningless and misleading after 17 games. But the hypothesis is interesting: can we consistently fail to beat the teams above us and still go up? Definitely if your form against those below you is imaculate. Does it bode well if out get promotes though? Doubt it.

Remember, we beat Sunderland and Newcastle last season, along with Southampton who are now in the Premiership.

Personally, I suspect we'd have a half decent season in the Prem if we got there. In fact, I reckon we'd be absolutely spanked by all the top 6 teams, but look the part against everyone else. What might see us in trouble is drawing too many winnable games, home and away.

 

[brightonmark1234]

come 5pm on 1st we still wont of beaten many of the top 6 we will lose against palace but i hope i am wrong

 

[Pavilionaire]

I think the Top 6 will shift around for the remainder of the season. I don't think Palace or Boro have particularly deep squads, so could see them dipping whereas I'd expect Bolton and Wolves to pick up.

 

[brightonmark1234]

i feel bolton will come and park the bus on saturday so we will have to break them down

 

[Acker79]

I like that stat very much. Any others?

There's a thread titled 'depressing statistic of the day' which focuses on the top half of the table, rather than the top six. I posted this on there over the weekend (plus some additions):

We are now 4 points better off than after 17 games last season.
On a fixture basis we are 2 points better off than last season omitting promoted/relegated sides, or 5 points better off than last season if you switch them
(Reading/Bolton; Southampton/Blackburn; West Ham/Wolves; Portsmouth/Charlton; Coventry/Sheff Wed; Doncaster/Huddersfield)

We have played 8 of the top 12 (47% of our games)
We have won 11 of our 27 points against teams currently in the top 12. (41% of our points)
We have won 9 points against teams who were in the top 12 when we played them (7 from 12 v teams top six whn we played them).
We are joint fifth for number of points won against the current top 12 (with B'Burn (from 7 games), B'pool (8), C'ton (9), C'Pal (7), and M'wall (9))
We are joint sixth for points per game against top 12 teams (with B'pool)

Of the top twelve (and thus, top six) we have conceded the fewest goals against top half teams of any team:

Number goals conceded against the top 6 teams:
brighton 3
cardiff 4
forest 4
palace 5
blackburn 5
huddersfield 5
boro 6
leicester 6
Blackpool 7
hull 8
watford 8
millwall 9
(top six teams in bold)