[Albion] Statsbomb: Can Seagulls Keep Flying Above Relegation

[haardman]

https://statsbomb.com/2020/03/can-graham-potters-seagulls-keep-flying-above-the-relegation-battle/

This is funny and pretty much spot on.

 

[Seasidesage]

That's actually a pretty good summation and also shows how hard it is to both change style and improve in this division.

 

[Weststander]

It seems to be a ‘look at me’ subjective piece, with some stats to dress it up as serious football writing. His passion for Major League Soccer an indicator that something’s amiss. Agreed, quite funny though, but did he intent that?



I’d be interested to see a PL table of expected GD.

 

[raymondo]

That's good... I was just going to post it myself! I agree, it's a decent summary.

 

[Hampster Gull]

I like him

 

[The Sock of Poskett]

Enjoyed that - and he digs up some pretty key points.
We are 'enjoying' more of the ball than we've had probably since the days of Gus, but seem to be doing less with it.
Opponents are taking less shots from outside the box, mainly because they don't need to - they can get into our area much more easily and do greater damage.
I'd like to see a stat that shows where we sit in terms of creating chances (I'd reckon about halfway), and then where we rate in terms of taking them (bottom 3).
Fundamentally, I think we have a manager who has developed a style of play that requires a higher technical standard of player than we possess in the squad at the moment. If we can scrape 17th place this season, bed in McAllister and Lamptey plus a few more in the summer, next season could be MUCH more fruitful.

 

[Worried Man Blues]

We score most of our goals by free kicks / set pieces, Glenn cunning Murray is the one to get the free kicks

 

[seagully]

We score most of our goals by free kicks / set pieces, Glenn cunning Murray is the one to get the free kicks

And Gross is surely the man to provide the assists from them. I would play them both against Wolves

 

[Official Old Man]

Laughed at this bit-
Brighton concedes among the fewest shots from outside the box. This can be a good sign. In Brighton’s case, however, it’s mainly a sign that attackers are getting into the penalty box.

 

[worthingseagull]

fantastically well written and sums up the situation perfectly

my favourite part - "Brighton are among the top performers when it comes to free kicks and corners. Of course, not doing anything with the ball in open play means that Brighton are also quite bad at actually getting free kicks or corners"

 

[Bakero]

It seems to be a ‘look at me’ subjective piece, with some stats to dress it up as serious football writing. His passion for Major League Soccer an indicator that something’s amiss. Agreed, quite funny though, but did he intent that?

View attachment 120653

I’d be interested to see a PL table of expected GD.

Which part do you disagree with?

He's a table with expected goals for and against:

https://understat.com/league/EPL

This one has an xGD table but the stats are different to the one above https://www.infogol.net/en/leagues/english-premier-league-table-2019-20/138

 

[Sea Cider]

Great opening line: "The basic problem with Brighton and Hove Albion is that they’re not very good."

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Kind of fun.

I balk at this line "There’s also the not insignificant matter of working with a small squad that is getting old" when the reality is that we have a big squad which is young and, crucially, inexperienced.

But otherwise, yeah, its work in progress, but a progress that one has to admit might include a relegation. Which would certainly be the oddest relegation I've seen Brighton do considering we're really quite good most of the time.

 

[Weststander]

Which part do you disagree with?

He's a table with expected goals for and against:

https://understat.com/league/EPL

This one has an xGD table but the stats are different to the one above https://www.infogol.net/en/leagues/english-premier-league-table-2019-20/138

It's a witty bitch … summarising more than once that we're just not very good.

Whereas according to many on NSC we're actually a good PL team, lacking a striker, to tuck away the chances.

I can see his arguments, but I'd rather hold fire until the end of the season. I think he may be proved correct.

 

[Bakero]

It's a witty bitch … summarising more than once that we're just not very good.

Whereas according to many on NSC we're actually a good PL team, lacking a striker, to tuck away the chances.

I can see his arguments, but I'd rather hold fire until the end of the season. I think he may be proved correct.

Well, judging us against the elite, we're not very good. I think you could say that about the majority of teams in the league.

I also agree that with the view that if we're not far off being a pretty decent side.

 

[Weststander]

Which part do you disagree with?

He's a table with expected goals for and against:

https://understat.com/league/EPL

This one has an xGD table but the stats are different to the one above https://www.infogol.net/en/leagues/english-premier-league-table-2019-20/138

Thanks for the linked table.

Interestingly there are 6 clubs with a far inferior expected GD than, including Newcastle and CP.

My non-scientific takes is:
1. CP and Newcastle have mugged opponents, taking their rare chance in narrow matches. Which is fair enough, teams have always done this.
2. We’ve obviously conceded devastating single goals, when we’ve played alright. A very long list of games to mention but Burnley at home, CP at home are two obvious examples. As we all recognise, we’re not tucking away our big chances created, Maupay, Trossard and Mooy stand out for this trait in the PL website stats.
3. Watford are falsely near the bottom of the real table, due to mismanagement by the last two incumbents. Expect them to ascend the table.

 

[Richy_Seagull]

Thanks for the linked table.

Interestingly there are 6 clubs with a far inferior expected GD than, including Newcastle and CP.

My non-scientific takes is:
1. CP and Newcastle have mugged opponents, taking their rare chance in narrow matches. Which is fair enough, teams have always done this.
2. We’ve obviously conceded devastating single goals, when we’ve played alright. A very long list of games to mention but Burnley at home, CP at home two obvious examples. As we all recognise, we’re not tucking away our big chances created, Maupay, Trossard and Mooy stand out for this trait in the PL website stats.
3. Watford are falsely near the bottom of the real table, due to mismanagement by the last two incumbents. Expect them to ascend the table.

The second reason you've listed is the main reason I think we will go down, simple as that.

 

[schmunk]

Kind of fun.

I balk at this line "There’s also the not insignificant matter of working with a small squad that is getting old" when the reality is that we have a big squad which is young and, crucially, inexperienced.

But otherwise, yeah, its work in progress, but a progress that one has to admit might include a relegation. Which would certainly be the oddest relegation I've seen Brighton do considering we're really quite good most of the time.

Against Palace, our starting lineup averaged a full 4 years younger than theirs (26.7 vs. 30.7) - at 27, Zahahaha was their youngest player!

 

[Weststander]

The second reason you've listed is the main reason I think we will go down, simple as that.

I think you’re right. One of our main hopes is that Villa lose game after game. It’s pretty desperate, just like last year, when you’re crossing your fingers that another couple of teams are even worse at the winning game.

I’d love to be wrong.

 

[Peteinblack]

Excellent read - spot-on.