[Football] Statistically It's not Burn we're missing, it's Webster

[Stato]

I wondered how all of the media talk of us missing Dan Burn stacks up. It feels like we are missing his cover when we are hit on the break, but since he has been gone, we have also variously been missing Dunk & Webster. I did a bit of analysis last night.

Its hard to pin down Potter's formations as they change so much during games, but looking at starting formations of centre backs, he has begun with 12 different line ups in EPL games this season.

Here they are in order of points won per game, with the number of games, followed by the total points & then points per game.

Dunk, Webster & Veltman;1 - 3 - 3
Dunk, Duffy & Webster; 3 - 6 - 2
Burn & Webster; 5 - 9 - 1.8
Dunk & Duffy; 6 - 8 - 1.33
Burn, Veltman & Cucurella; 1 - 1 - 1
Dunk, Duffy & Burn; 5 - 4 - 0.8
Dunk & Webster; 3 - 2 - 0.666666667
Dunk, Burn & Veltman; 1 - 0 - 0
Burn & Veltman; 1 - 0 - 0
Duffy & Veltman; 1 - 0 - 0
Dunk, Veltman & Cucurella; 1 - 0 - 0
Dunk & Veltman 1 - 0 - 0

Of course this is a narrow analysis that doesn't take into account the midfield, goalkeeper, or full backs/wing backs that partnered them. It also doesn't go into the difficulty of the opposition, nor the form of the rest of the team at the time of the game. It's just a snapshot of one aspect of an admittedly much more complicated picture. However, what it does show is that Webster & both Dunk play in three of our four most effective partnerships in terms of points gained, Duffy plays in two of them and Burn and Veltman one. With Dan Burn starting at CB in any formation we averaged 1.11 points per game. With Duffy 1.2, with Webster 1.64, with Dunk 1.04, with Veltman 0.57 & with Cucu 0.5.

Burn's impressive run of eight games covering for Dunk in December & January garnered an impressive 1.375 points per game. However, in the five of those that Adam Webster played alongside him, this rose to 1.8 ppg. Webster's ppg return in game he started without Burn is actually 1.55, an improvement on what they achieved together.

The good news is that on this stat, the most effective performer at CB is still at the club. The challenge, considering that he has started only 48% of our league games this season, is getting him and keeping him fit.

 

[Commander]

Webster is a far superior player. It's blindingly obvious we're missing him, Burn was never really a first choice centre back for us.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Yep.

We have missed Webster more.

That isn't to say we haven't missed Burn as a replacement for the injured Webster, obviously.

The latter just compounds the former.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Spoiler Alert

Anyone tuning into the Albion Roar this weekend might find exactly the same point being made.

Point of order though, Cucurella hasn't ever played centre back, or if he has, he's done it from the position of a traditional left back.

 

[hans kraay fan club]

Spoiler Alert

Anyone tuning into the Albion Roar this weekend might find exactly the same point being made.

Point of order though, Cucurella hasn't ever played centre back, or if he has, he's done it from the position of a traditional left back.

Cucurella played as the LCB in a three at Chelsea.

 

[zefarelly]

Webster is a far superior player. It's blindingly obvious we're missing him, Burn was never really a first choice centre back for us.

Burn and Webster are our best pairing this season

or were

We've not been desperate for a defender to return to the side for a while now.

 

[Stato]

Cucurella played as the LCB in a three at Chelsea.

And at home against Villa with Dunk in the centre, Veltman on the right and Solly and Lamptey as wing backs. Stats were from: https://www.whoscored.com/Matches/1549801/Live/England-Premier-League-2021-2022-Brighton-Aston-Villa

 

[kevo]

Webster is a far superior player. It's blindingly obvious we're missing him, Burn was never really a first choice centre back for us.

Burn was needed as cover for Webster, so that's why selling him was a mistake - Webster always prone to injuries and Dunk liable to get suspended.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Cucurella played as the LCB in a three at Chelsea.

I'd forgotten that.

I tend to go off the average positions on whoscored. Here are ours from that game.



Pretty clear that March is in a similar role to Lamptey on the other wing which makes you spot on correct. But also clear that Cucuralla is more advanced than the other two centre backs and wider. I suspect you'd see games where Robertson's average position for Liverpool was similar.

 

[B-right-on]

White - Dunk - Webster

With BDB as reserve.

This is what Potterball was built on. Playing out from the back, ball carrying CBs into the middle of the park, cutting thru the oppo press.

We have one of the 4 in action now, arguably the worst of them all at Potterball.

And we wonder why is not going well, slow, ponderous etc...

 

[Guinness Boy]

White - Dunk - Webster

With BDB as reserve.

This is what Potterball was built on. Playing out from the back, ball carrying CBs into the middle of the park, cutting thru the oppo press.

We have one of the 4 in action now, arguably the worst of them all at Potterball.

And we wonder why is not going well, slow, ponderous etc...

Yes, exactly.

White playing slightly ahead of the other CBs, winning tackles and starting transition, often ending up pushed right up (example being away at Leeds in BCD season where he was a massive part of Maupay's goal). Webster driving forward on the dribble from the left or right, often beating, and therefore taking out, two opposition players. Dunk sitting and protecting, often with the help of Biss.

Right now Dunk is horribly out of form and was the enforcer in that trio anyway. And, as much as I love Shane Duffy's effort and heart, he was built as a traditional clean it out CB, not for Potterball.

 

[B-right-on]

Yes, exactly.

White playing slightly ahead of the other CBs, winning tackles and starting transition, often ending up pushed right up (example being away at Leeds in BCD season where he was a massive part of Maupay's goal). Webster driving forward on the dribble from the left or right, often beating, and therefore taking out, two opposition players. Dunk sitting and protecting, often with the help of Biss.

Right now Dunk is horribly out of form and was the enforcer in that trio anyway. And, as much as I love Shane Duffy's effort and heart, he was built as a traditional clean it out CB, not for Potterball.

True. Which is why he was shipped out to Celtic as he doesn't fit the mould of what GPott needs from his CBs.

So the annoying thing is, doubly, if we (amateurish armchair managers) can see this, why was BDB and BW let go without adequate replacements and why have we no plan B (FAST counter attacks etc...)

 

[twr93]

Its hard to pin down Potter's formations as they change so much during games, but looking at starting formations of centre backs, he has begun with 12 different line ups in EPL games this season.

Would love to know the stats for teams with the most clean sheets this season. I would hazard a guess that each of them have a lot less than 12 different centre back combinations ?!

 

[dazzer6666]

Dunk and Duffy receive the ball from Sanchez, stop it, put a foot on it, look both ways, look again, then pass sideways. Rinse and repeat. It’s so painfully slow. Webster’s first instinct however is often to look for a space to run into…….and Burn did the same when he played at CB.

 

[Springal]

Dunk and Duffy receive the ball from Sanchez, stop it, put a foot on it, look both ways, look again, then pass sideways. Rinse and repeat. It’s so painfully slow. Webster’s first instinct however is often to look for a space to run into…….and Burn did the same when he played at CB.

Dunk used to be a bit more like that under Hughton so slightly surprising we've seen virtually none of it since hes been back

 

[nicko31]

Missing Webster and a Dunk on top form

 

[Sarisbury Seagull]

Yep, it is the main reason for our down turn in form. We massively miss Webster, he is our most important player these days.

I like Burn but wasn't and am still not that fussed about him going. It's conveniently forgotten as blaming his sale is a lazy excuse for our recent slump, but before he went, he'd only started half of our PL games this season anyway.

 

[Hotchilidog]

Been saying this to mates for weeks. We have been toilet since Webster got injured. Not only do we lose his defensive qualities but his ability to drive the team forward from the back has affected the creativity of our midfield for the worse.

 

[nwgull]

Would love to know the stats for teams with the most clean sheets this season. I would hazard a guess that each of them have a lot less than 12 different centre back combinations ?!

Weren't we 5th best in terms of goals conceded up until the Man Utd game? I know it was good.

 

[The Optimist]

Would love to know the stats for teams with the most clean sheets this season. I would hazard a guess that each of them have a lot less than 12 different centre back combinations ?!

The clean sheet records (based on keeper rather than team) are available in the link below (Sanchez is joint 9th).

https://www.premierleague.com/stats/top/players/clean_sheet?po=GOALKEEPER&se=418