[Albion] Squad trimming... who stays, who goes?

[Machiavelli]

I've read that the £69 million loss only included 11 months TV money this time. In the next accounts we will have 13 months TV money so the loss should be less anyway without us doing anything.

The most important thing is to get the £3.4 million annual Jahanbakhsh amortization loss off the accounts if possible, as well as the yearly £3.8 million amortization loss on Locadia.

Agreed, and the issue is that Tony has absorbed losses in the past. Last season's was a massive one, but there isn't too much evidence to suggest that it's going to provoke a major change in his strategy.

 

[blue-shifted]

I've got a hunch we're going to buy some better players for bigger fees than we could have possibly imagined this summer. I fully understand the scale of the loss we made last year

Here's my line of logic

Is TB a successful businessman? Yes
What is his line of business? Property
How do you make money in property? Buying when the market is low and selling when it's high
What's the market like in football? 8 - 10 clubs will buck the trend, but generally it's low.
So who are we likely to buy from? There will be some big clubs in foreign leagues in dire straights. Upper mid table teams in Spain and Italy will be taking up front cash for good players to hold off creditors
Do you have any names for me Blue-shifted? Oooh, well I do have some thoughts but i'm a bit hesitant in case i'm made to look like a complete mug. I think we'll be genuinely shocked by how well this transfer window goes though.
What about positions? I know a few yes.
No, for the players? Yes, I see what you mean. Just the obvious ones we know we need.

 

[MattBackHome]

Out: Duffy, Pröpper, Izzy, Andone, Locadia, Walton, Ali J, Biss, Tau

Yeah this.

 

[Gabbiano]

I've read that the £69 million loss only included 11 months TV money this time. In the next accounts we will have 13 months TV money so the loss should be less anyway without us doing anything.

The most important thing is to get the £3.4 million annual Jahanbakhsh amortization loss off the accounts if possible, as well as the yearly £3.8 million amortization loss on Locadia.

Surely the amortisations are a bit of a red herring?

We agree a fee with the selling club of £X million. Whether we pay that in annual amortisation payments or not doesnt matter in terms of the total owed.

If we sell the player before all the amortisations are paid we will still owe the money to the original club, so either we will pay it from the sell on transfer fee or the amortisation payments just continue for what would have been the length of the contract. So that money is earmarked anyway.

 

[Gabbiano]

Also people seem to get too hung up on making back the money we paid for a player.

When we buy players in their prime and off the back of a good season like Propper, Gross, Trossard etc., the club will know we are unlikely to sell on for a profit. The value they provide is in securing another year of Premier League income.

Someone like Propper, I'd argue we could sell him on the cheap and he'd still have been worth every penny. Maybe Ali J... not so much.

 

[Berty23]

I have a feeling that we will have players lined up but we needed to confirm premier league status first. If we can pull of a couple of signings similar to Veltman in terms of value then we will be laughing.

I agree with others that this might be when Tony has a bit of a punt on moving to the next level. I for one at very excited for next season.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Andone won't be going anywhere.

If he recovers anywhere near his previous ability, then he is a sgood as anyone else in the squad (possibly less mental than Maupay too!)
Plus, who exactly is going to be interested in signing a striker recovering from a long term injury in the current climate?

 

[Superphil]

I imagine we (the Club) will have to wait to see what players decide they want away, and have a realistic chance of a move (Bissouma, White, Webster, Lamptey, others?) before we (the Club) can decide on who they can get shot of.

Then the matter of attracting new players to a team who's aspiration is not to get relegated.

 

[Wardy's twin]

Next 3 games might shed a bit more light on things.

Ali J is an enigma , not a good player at this level but offers something that we struggle with i.e. delivering direct (and good quality) passes into the box and reasonably accurate shots. Difficult to know whether picking/playing him is part of a selling strategy or whether its because Potter sees him as an impact player.

 

[Uh_huh_him]

I've got a hunch we're going to buy some better players for bigger fees than we could have possibly imagined this summer. I fully understand the scale of the loss we made last year

Here's my line of logic

Is TB a successful businessman? Yes
What is his line of business? Property
How do you make money in property? Buying when the market is low and selling when it's high
What's the market like in football? 8 - 10 clubs will buck the trend, but generally it's low.
So who are we likely to buy from? There will be some big clubs in foreign leagues in dire straights. Upper mid table teams in Spain and Italy will be taking up front cash for good players to hold off creditors
Do you have any names for me Blue-shifted? Oooh, well I do have some thoughts but i'm a bit hesitant in case i'm made to look like a complete mug. I think we'll be genuinely shocked by how well this transfer window goes though.
What about positions? I know a few yes.
No, for the players? Yes, I see what you mean. Just the obvious ones we know we need.

The only flaw with your analogy, is that the maintenance costs for property, don't usually cost more than the purchase price.
I don't see players and agents getting realistic about wages just yet.

 

[Albion in the north]

I'm surprised at the number of people who say Locadia, Andone and Tau are going while Connolly and/or Zeqiri are out on loan - we are not going to get rid of our entire strike force (particularly if Maupay's ban is extended and we don't know whether Welbeck will sign a new contract).

My gut feeling is that Andone will stay and prove he has something to offer. I think Locadia is definitely offski and suspect Tau will be as well but that they'll keep at least one of Connolly/Zeqiri. They may well sign another striker but I don't think it will be a big name.

This for me.

 

[A1X]

Out (any reasonable offer): Ryan, Walton, Duffy, Propper, Jahanbakhsh, Locadia, Andone, Bernardo, Locadia, Izquierdo, Tau

Out (if we get a good fee): Bissouma, White, Maupay

Loan out: Caicedo, Connolly, Karbownick, Molumby, Alzate

In (in order of priority): ST (x2), LWB, RWB, CM (1x ST and CM can be from academy)

Line up (based on Potter's preferred 3-4-1-2 formation from the second half of this season) with their replacements and assuming all "Out" players leave;

Sanchez / Steele

Webster / Clarke
Dunk / Ostigard
Veltman / Burn

Lamptey / New RWB
Moder / Lallana
Gross / New CM
March / New LWB

Trossard / MacAllister

Welbeck / Zeqiri
New ST / New ST

That's obviously assuming all the players I'd clear out left, which I think is unlikely in reality.

 

[chaileyjem]

Plus, who exactly is going to be interested in signing a striker recovering from a long term injury in the current climate?

Ha! the very idea. !!!

*checks Brighton's signings last summer*

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Ha! the very idea. !!!

*checks Brighton's signings last summer*

Ok, but we didn't pay any actual cash for him.

 

[Mellotron]

Everyone's determined that Jahanbakhsh is on his way out, despite him probably being the most used sub of the past few months. Thought he did fine against Wolves also. I think Potter might see use for him yet.

Burn and Jahanbakhsh must be the oddest wing-back combination of all time though.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Surely the amortisations are a bit of a red herring?

We agree a fee with the selling club of £X million. Whether we pay that in annual amortisation payments or not doesnt matter in terms of the total owed.

If we sell the player before all the amortisations are paid we will still owe the money to the original club, so either we will pay it from the sell on transfer fee or the amortisation payments just continue for what would have been the length of the contract. So that money is earmarked anyway.

Well not really a red herring as £7.2 million of next year's loss is already baked in for Jahanbakhsh and Locadia. Move them on and the loss reduces.


( Amortization is for the accounts, it is nothing to do with paying in installments ).

 

[Uh_huh_him]

Everyone's determined that Jahanbakhsh is on his way out, despite him probably being the most used sub of the past few months. Thought he did fine against Wolves also. I think Potter might see use for him yet.

Agreed.

There is no chance that Potter would be using him so frequently to "put him in the window". He is one of the best shooters and crossers in the club.
The problem is he is infinitely more effective as an impact sub than as a starter.
I have no problem with him staying on the books for another season.

Equally I don't see a problem with keeping Duffy as cover, if there aren't any offers.
We play 3 centre backs and have been shorthanded at times this season.

 

[chaileyjem]

Ok, but we didn't pay any actual cash for him.

Ha ! *checks Brighton's wage bill*

 

[Gwylan]

Welbeck / Zeqiri
New ST / New ST

As I said above, there is no way that the club is going to clear out most of its strike force. Are we really going to start the season with an injury prone player in his 30s and a youngster who's never started a PL game (and hasn't played as a striker when he has come on).

Just consider what a new striker means. They can come from three places:
The Premier League
A lower English division
Abroad

Players from abroad we know generally take several months to get used to English football (Gross took to it instantly but he was an exception). Lower division is a bit of a gamble - sometimes they work (Watkins at Villa), sometimes they don't (Adams at Southampton) and if they're from the PL they're either a flop or out of our price range.

I really can't see us starting a new season with an untried strike force. I'm sure we will sign a striker but we're going to keep most of our existing players.

 

[Lifelong Supporter]

Out (any reasonable offer): Ryan, Walton, Duffy, Propper, Jahanbakhsh, Locadia, Andone, Bernardo, Locadia, Izquierdo, Tau

Out (if we get a good fee): Bissouma, White, Maupay

Loan out: Caicedo, Connolly, Karbownick, Molumby, Alzate

In (in order of priority): ST (x2), LWB, RWB, CM (1x ST and CM can be from academy)

Line up (based on Potter's preferred 3-4-1-2 formation from the second half of this season) with their replacements and assuming all "Out" players leave;

Sanchez / Steele

Webster / Clarke
Dunk / Ostigard
Veltman / Burn

Lamptey / New RWB
Moder / Lallana
Gross / New CM
March / New LWB

Trossard / MacAllister

Welbeck / Zeqiri
New ST / New ST

That's obviously assuming all the players I'd clear out left, which I think is unlikely in reality.

This is nicely set out. I do not think a central midfield of Moder and Gross is good enough to be honest. I would hope Lallana starts a fair bit. If Biss does go perhaps there will be a role for Davy Propper.