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Sports Personality 08 - the official betting thread







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Mtoto

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2003
1,858
Fairly major market move for Adlington today, think she may have been put up by a tipping line. Hamilton is now odds against on Betfair.
 




Mtoto

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2003
1,858
At Adlington's current rate of progress, Hamilton will be the second favourite this time tomorrow. Latest Betfair prices: Hamilton 2.22, Adlington 2.4.
 




Lets be honest here, but where do \bbc get there top list from, is it based on any market researc or polls, or just a few faviurites drwn up over some sarnies? Me thinks the later.

Then the BBC promotes its favourites, which leads to the chosen few.

I listened to BBC5 when Sussex were up for best team- it was obvious the bbc team, the celebrities they interviewed had only a limited view of the selection, but it did not prevent them for upping their favourites.

Waste of time and space.
 


Anchorman

Active member
Oct 19, 2007
153
Thats interesting Mtoto, whats caused Adlington's price to shorten like that? Can't view Betfair at work, wondered if the Exchange forums knew anything. Would love to see her win, its not like she had the best motorised float to win her gold medals - 100% pure physical ability in a highly competitive sport.
 


pasty

A different kind of pasty
Jul 5, 2003
31,016
West, West, West Sussex
I think Chris Hoy could be a good outside bet.... remember it is Sports PERSONALITY of the year.

The PERSONALITY bit of the title became completely irrelevant the year Steve Davis won it.
:D
 




Hatterlovesbrighton

something clever
Jul 28, 2003
4,543
Not Luton! Thank God
Lets be honest here, but where do \bbc get there top list from, is it based on any market researc or polls, or just a few faviurites drwn up over some sarnies? Me thinks the later.

Then the BBC promotes its favourites, which leads to the chosen few.

I listened to BBC5 when Sussex were up for best team- it was obvious the bbc team, the celebrities they interviewed had only a limited view of the selection, but it did not prevent them for upping their favourites.

Waste of time and space.


It's the sports editors of newspapers that nominate the top 10
 




Bozza

You can change this
Helpful Moderator
Jul 4, 2003
57,283
Back in Sussex
The last 2 years have resulted in shocks with big odds-on favourites getting turned over.

Darren "sympathy vote" Clarke in 2006 and Lewis Hamilton last year were both shoe-ins.

The BBC on-the-night audience submit a lot of votes based on BBC presentation and production. If I was a betting man, I'd be laying Motorsport in Betfair's Winning Sport market - buying yourself any winner other than Hamilton.

And that would have been pretty profitable already if you wanted to back out your position.
 




Mtoto

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2003
1,858
Anchorman, apparently the Isiris tipping line was behind the latest plunge, as she had been settled at around 3-1 for several weeks.

I was planning to wait until closer to the time, but had to get a bit of 9-4 as all the decent prices started to evaporate. Now I'm starting to think that Hamilton is looking like value at upwards of 6-4, but realistically I reckon Adlington (like Joe Swash in the jungle) is perfectly suited to this competition.

What she's actually achieved is impressive, but it's less important than how she will come across on the night, and that's likely to be very, very well indeed.
 


ATFC Seagull

Aberystwyth Town FC
Jul 27, 2004
5,350
(North) Portslade
Can someone explain to me why Adlington should be ahead of Bradley Wiggins or Chris Hoy? As a cyclist I am only too aware of what they achieved, whilst I couldn't tell you what events Adlington won, and I would expect that it would be vice versa for a large proportion! Its for that reason that I can only really argue it should rest on events away from the Olympics.
 


Lady Whistledown

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 7, 2003
47,625
Can someone explain to me why Adlington should be ahead of Bradley Wiggins or Chris Hoy? As a cyclist I am only too aware of what they achieved, whilst I couldn't tell you what events Adlington won, and I would expect that it would be vice versa for a large proportion! Its for that reason that I can only really argue it should rest on events away from the Olympics.

I suppose some people might consider that cycling has had a ton of money thrown at it for some time now, with all the top guys based at the Manchester velodrome and being coached by the best in the world. They're something of a team I guess.

Whereas someone like Adlington doesn't exactly get the funding- or at least didn't, prior to Beijing- and it's probably just her, a coach, and a few keen local swimming club members ploughing up the lanes at the Mansfield Swim-O-Rama at 6am each morning.

You just can't measure the candidates against each other as far as I can see. Some would argue that Hamilton's win is 90% technology and 10% talent, others say it's down to the driver. Similarly with Hoy, I dare say he relies more on technical advances than, say, Adlington.

But on the other hand Hoy's won more medals. Personally I reckon if it's going to be an Olympian, it's hard to look beyond Hoy simply because he won more medals, however great the triumphs of others.
 




Lady Whistledown

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 7, 2003
47,625
Oh yeah, and they reckon Victoria Pendleton would have totally dominated, had there been an identical programme of events for the men as for the women, but for whatever reason, they don't include some of her best events in the Olympic schedule, so she has to put up with "only" one gold medal, while Hoy gets to enter several races.
 


ATFC Seagull

Aberystwyth Town FC
Jul 27, 2004
5,350
(North) Portslade
Oh yeah, and they reckon Victoria Pendleton would have totally dominated, had there been an identical programme of events for the men as for the women, but for whatever reason, they don't include some of her best events in the Olympic schedule, so she has to put up with "only" one gold medal, while Hoy gets to enter several races.

Oh you don't need to tell me - Chris Hoy won 3 practically identical events. Thats why Mark Cavendish should be ahead of him as far as cyclists go!

Fair point about funding, hadn't really seen it that way - although to be fair i really doubt the majority of SP voters will have such an informed viewpoint either! But thats why I think Team GB should be the team of the year, but its hard to single out individuals amongst them - how are you supposed to compare gold medals against gold medals?
 


Lady Whistledown

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 7, 2003
47,625
I'm sure Zara Phillips would have won again, if her horse hadn't gone lame.

Let's face it, she'd only have had to finish in the top six to be an instant hit amongst the viewers of a certain age and demographic who still bother to vote in this contest.
 


Mtoto

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2003
1,858
Adlington now odds-on on Betfair - gone through all the 1.9s, in fact, and well into 1.8 territory.
 




Anchorman

Active member
Oct 19, 2007
153
Agree that Adlington ticks all the boxes over Hamilton. The big negative though that you can't ignore is the prospect of the split Olympian vote. Its a complete 3 horse race with 2 of them Olympic Gold medalists. Without Hoy on the shortlist, she would be as good as past the post.
 


Pavilionaire

Well-known member
Jul 7, 2003
31,262
If Grand Prix was shown on the Beeb and not ITV it would be Hamilton nailed on.

At the end of the day it means more to me that we've got the fastest, best driver in the world than we've got the best 400m freestyle ladies swimmer. I like the thought of all those Germans, Italians, Brazilians, Aussies, Frenchies and Spaniards who know our boy is the Top Dog, and they can go f*** themselves.

My sporting moment of the year was seeing those Ferrari wankers jumping around thinking they'd won the Championship then realising they'd won f*** all. Thank you for that, Lewis.
 


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