Speculation

[patcham seagulls]

Ok so NSC is alive with rumours gus is off to reading.

For me, the timing is hardly co-incidental. Fresh from comprehensively beating local rivals 3-0, and well placed in championship to finish in the play off positions. What better time for gus to flex his muscles.

I believe there is a battle of power going on behind the scenes. Between gus attempting to maintain current wage spending and establish a substantial transfer budget, and the new chief executive who is on obvious strict instructions to reduce current spending.

As stated previously, last years financial results were at best poor and many other clubs in the championship also find themselves in similar positions. Gus being ambitious to manage at top level, has been flirting with the media and big clubs since he arrived. Overall his record as manager is largely positive and he is very aware of his own market value.

Inevitably he will leave, whether in 2/3 years as a success or a failure. What will determine the timing of his departure, is to what extent the club can continue to underwrite loses to support him.

What club officials have to decide is whether they can safely continue or increase spending on the first team squad. Having spent years trawling around the bottom divisions, and the uncertainty over getting permission for the amex, over stretching and risking doing a Leeds, Portsmouth, Coventry, wolves, Bristol city, Plymouth etc is the unpalatable alternative.

No evidence of any of this

Just a hunch

 

[Willy Dangle]

You are probably not far off, we have a small budget well publicized, we have a very grounded chairman and CEO when it comes to finance and I think it must be frustrating for Gus to see other clubs spending big.

I believe that our business plan is to maintain a healthy balance sheet and wait for others to tumble down past us with financial fair play etc, long term clubs cannot support the spending they have with the crowds they pull in. We need to have patience and I don't think Gus does, he has probably spelled out to TB on many occasions that he needs more cash and he ain't gonna get it. Might be the straw that broke the cookie and that is the way the camel bounces. He has probably had sight of next years budget by now and there is not enough coffers for him to build further.

Only my opinion so happy to be proved wrong.

 

[luge]

FWIW I think that this may have been going on for a couple of weeks. Go back and look at the post match interviews of the Bolton and Barnsley (and that game in particular) games - Gus seemed very different than normal - downbeat, and a bit sad... then look at the programme notes from the Palace game (surmising what he's acheived), and then the post match comments about leaving on a high. All a bit different than his normal posturing of he will go to the PL etc.

Suspect he may have been tapped up about a potential move - certainly Brian McD sacking came as no surprise to Reading players.

The catch in this all is that we beat Palace and arrested our bit of bad form - we now have a good chance of making the playoffs, on paper - which is probably making him think twice...

That coupled with all that he's achieved with the Albion and the emotional attachment that the last 3 1/2 years brings. It's a a job half done so far, despite all that, so there is unfinished business - and the move on offer isn't a no brainer (parachute money aside). However that parachute money is tempting, as I'm sure, is the salary...

I'm pretty sure if we lost that Palace game then he would have been more likely to have gone by now.

All conjecture - but his body language has been a bit different since Bristol!

 

[Willy Dangle]

I also think he has found it hard to find the striker due to a big NO on finance.

All Ashley Barnes's fault, and that is tongue in cheek Ash if you read this.

 

[OzMike]

He said it all with his thinly veiled post match comments.

 

[Laridae]

Well done OP for a genuine top post and a great couple of intelligent replies too... think you've all hit the nail firmly on the head.

 

[Rugrat]

Well done OP for a genuine top post and a great couple of intelligent replies too... think you've all hit the nail firmly on the head.

Agree (but don't worry it'll deteriorate quickly!)

I imagine this will be tied up today, Gus will not want to keep the club and players hanging on either way, it will be hugely unsettling and if he decides to stay there will be some repairs to be done. If he goes he's going to want maximum time to plan for their trip to Arsenal.

Still find it totally bewildering that he'd even consider it and that this isn't some sort of "look at me self promotion" gig

 

[beorhthelm]

What are you suggesting, Gus started the strengthen his position? you dont half come to a lot of conclusions based on nothing and could be completely redundant postulating if in fact he has not considered the Reading job at all.

 

[Beach Hut]

If he goes we will get a large compensation package so maybe that will fiance the loan of the striker we need.

The scenario of us going up and Reading down could happen which would make him look extremely silly to say the least, if he decides to go then Adkins is the one we should go for.

 

[Lethargic]

I just can't see this happening now though and I think his ambition works in our favour and not Reading. He has a chance of completing his project at Brighton this season the playoffs and promotion are a reasonable possibility which would give him a proper credibility not just the current position of they play nice football. This is fully his team and no matter what he does he has the full backing of the board even if its not with as much Money as he would like. Now look at Reading they are probably going down nothing vindictive just look at their position Gus would have to start again in the Championship building his own team to get to the premiership his self confessed aim, Reading have no more evidence for spending big than we do so no better than us.

Yes he will go and I think the possibility increases the moment we get promoted but it will not be to someone like Reading and again I don't mean that in a bad way they are too similar to us in the same way it would be highly unlikely he would come to us if the roles were reversed. To me the media need their "lets screw someone story" and we are it for this summer get used to the speculation but I think he is too proud and stubborn to leave when we are in with a chance of promotion to let someone else get his credit.

 

[Notters]

Blimeyes you lot have some impressive imaginations. Have you thought about writing some fantasy novels?

 

[ali jenkins]

11 replies and not one insult, not one person saying that you are all clueless idiots and you should go and follow Palace just because you have a certain view and not one person moaning about anything that has been said... This is very un-NSC

 

[dragonred]

I think the lack of insults reflects the fact that there is some 'possibility' that this could potentially happen rather than the wild and unfounded speculation we normally get where GP involved - Reading ask to speak to Gus, TB says yes (he's not unreasonable) but the fact that the request was not simply rejected on the spot (by Gus telling TB he was not interested in the slightest so pointless even speaking) suggests Gus is at least semi interested. I could understand a top 10 club pricking his curiosity at this point in time but a club facing relegation in 2 months and historically no bigger than BHA, suggests all cant be 100% well between GP and owner - an alternative view is by saying would like to speak to them GP may thinks this could 'force' TB's hand to spend more to keep him and strengthen squad but that would be playing a dangerous game with a successful gambler like TB. For what its worth, I think TB holds all the aces here, he owns a very well run club, has a great stadium, a large and very loyal fan base and he should have a team in the Championship that will always be there or thereabouts with the new revenues coming in so always a chance for any half decent manager to get promotion and the riches of the Premier League. Add in this is one of the best places to live in the UK and the queue to manage would have some very impressive names in it. If Gus stays great (but can't help but feel the timing of this is awful) but moving forward I personally don't see him leaving now or any time soon as a loss that will not be quickly compensated for and bettered. In TB we should have complete faith as he and his support is not replaceable.

 

[StanmoreSeagull]

Gus has always said for him to leave it would take something "special". I took that to mean Chelsea, Spurs or a bigger more established premiership team. Reading don't fall into that bracket surely... It's not like the Coppell and Sidwell days. We've got a nicer ground and bigger crowds than them now. I'd be extremely surprised and disappointed if he left us for Reading as I'm sure most would be.