Southampton Are Not Threatening

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

First of all, apologies for starting another Southampton thread. But there is a reason for this. Thread after thread refers to them as our main competitors as if this is a fact and that they will inevitably push us hard at the end. This may well be true and they may well be pressing us towards the end of the season (and I know there is talk of buying CM-S from Peterborough - but they're losing Oxo Chambermaid) but so might Bournemouth, Hudds, Charlton, Peterborough etc etc. There is nothing - and I mean NOTHING - in Southampton's form over the last 10 games or so to make us more concerned about them above anyone else.

Plotting their average points per game against us makes this very clear. They are simply not closing the gap:



So can we have less of the obssession with Southampton until they start to close the gap and prove that they are genuinely anywhere near our class.

 

[Rookie]

First of all, apologies for starting another Southampton thread. But there is a reason for this. Thread after thread refers to them as our main competitors as if this is a fact and that they will inevitably push us hard at the end. This may well be true and they may well be pressing us towards the end of the season (and I know there is talk of buying CM-S from Peterborough - but they're losing Oxo Chambermaid) but so might Bournemouth, Hudds, Charlton, Peterborough etc etc. There is nothing - and I mean NOTHING - in Southampton's form over the last 10 games or so to make us more concerned about them above anyone else.

Plotting their average points per game against us makes this very clear. They are simply not closing the gap:

View attachment 21263

So can we have less of the obssession with Southampton until they start to close the gap and prove that they are genuinely anywhere near our class.

6 nil against Oldham?

 

[Pantani]

6 nil against Oldham?

0-0 against Notts County at home?
0-2 against Tranmere away?

 

[Mellotron]

6 nil against Oldham?

But that's not FORM is it? It's a one off. And that's Southampton's problem, they have been woefully inconsistent all season. Which I don't think, after 25 games, is a problem that will magically, suddenly just disappear. They MIGHT come 2nd, but I could definitely also see them getting dragged back into the Playoffs.

 

[bhaexpress]

But that's not FORM is it? It's a one off. And that's Southampton's problem, they have been woefully inconsistent all season. Which I don't think, after 25 games, is a problem that will magically, suddenly just disappear. They MIGHT come 2nd, but I could definitely also see them getting dragged back into the Playoffs.

Was a great result although a bit of a freak one but they lack consistancy. I can see this continuing until Lalana gets fit. I do so hope Man Utd wipe the floor with them like Pompey did.

 

[Simster]

But that's not FORM is it? It's a one off. And that's Southampton's problem, they have been woefully inconsistent all season. Which I don't think, after 25 games, is a problem that will magically, suddenly just disappear. They MIGHT come 2nd, but I could definitely also see them getting dragged back into the Playoffs.

I agree. But they remain a threat just because of their squad size. I'm beginning to think Bournemouth could be our other big threat. You can't keep saying "they'll fall away". They've absolutely battered teams, remained consistent at home, and to their credit, they took four points off the best team in the league (even if it was a bit lucky).

More so than Sheffield Wednesday anyway, whose gobby fans were banging on about taking an automatic spot when Mandaric rocked up. I'm pleased to say reality has bitten in the last couple of games - they are a f***ing shit division three team playing in a 2-thirds empty stadium. The good news is that they will be a shit division three team next season too, with or without Irvine as they won't turn around that crock of shit for a good couple of years.

 

[Life After Bobby]

When we went top four months ago, we were 9pts above 18th placed Southampton.

We are now 8pts above 4th placed Southampton. They've obviously improved over the last 17 games, but their form is only marginally better than ours (and with one more home game played)

 

[Marshy]

I see your point, but if we finsih above them we will go up i have no doubt

 

[bhaexpress]

I agree. But they remain a threat just because of their squad size. I'm beginning to think Bournemouth could be our other big threat. You can't keep saying "they'll fall away". They've absolutely battered teams, remained consistent at home, and to their credit, they took four points off the best team in the league (even if it was a bit lucky).

More so than Sheffield Wednesday anyway, whose gobby fans were banging on about taking an automatic spot when Mandaric rocked up. I'm pleased to say reality has bitten in the last couple of games - they are a f***ing shit division three team playing in a 2-thirds empty stadium. The good news is that they will be a shit division three team next season too, with or without Irvine as they won't turn around that crock of shit for a good couple of years.

The way Wendy are playing I think they'll be lucky to make the play offs, shame isn't it ? Frankly I think if Orient get a result against us they could be in the play offs, they're moving along nicely and despite the fact that Wendy are clearly overrated Orient's 4-0 win was very tidy.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

I agree. But they remain a threat just because of their squad size.

Absolutely wouldn't disagree with that - I'm just making the point that when people suggest again and again that Southampton will be the main threat as if it is a fact, they have not yet shown that they can do this. Good results and bad results but at this stage they are simply not closing the gap. Other teams are a theat too.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

When we went top four months ago, we were 9pts above 18th placed Southampton.

We are now 8pts above 4th placed Southampton. They've obviously improved over the last 17 games, but their form is only marginally better than ours (and with one more home game played)

When we went top, both sides had only played eight games, so position is less relevant at that stage. The gap was 9 points and now, after 25 games, it is still 8 points. That's hardly reeling us in is it.

 

[Comedy Steve]

Was a great result although a bit of a freak one but they lack consistancy. I can see this continuing until Lalana gets fit. I do so hope Man Utd wipe the floor with them like Pompey did.

I don't. I hope Southampton win that game over two legs with extra time, suffering exhaustion, injuries, and multiple bookings, and change the focus away from the league. And I bet Gus does too.

 

[cjd]

First of all, apologies for starting another Southampton thread. But there is a reason for this. Thread after thread refers to them as our main competitors as if this is a fact and that they will inevitably push us hard at the end. This may well be true and they may well be pressing us towards the end of the season (and I know there is talk of buying CM-S from Peterborough - but they're losing Oxo Chambermaid) but so might Bournemouth, Hudds, Charlton, Peterborough etc etc. There is nothing - and I mean NOTHING - in Southampton's form over the last 10 games or so to make us more concerned about them above anyone else.

Plotting their average points per game against us makes this very clear. They are simply not closing the gap:

View attachment 21263




Not sure I quite understand your graph.........but taking the form over the last 10 games makes interesting reading.

Brighton...............4 wins 3 draws 3 losses points........15

Southampton........5 wins 2 draws 3 losses points.........17

Bournemouth........5 wins 2 draws 3 losses points.........17

Huddersfield.........5 wins 2 draws 3 losses points.........17

Peterborough........4 wins 2 draws 4 losses points.........14

Based on the last 10 games, if that form were to continue for each club to the end of the season the table would finish as follows;

Brighton..................81 points

Southampton...........77 points

Bournemouth...........77 points

Huddersfield............77 points

Peterborough...........70 points

 

[Life After Bobby]

When we went top, both sides had only played eight games, so position is less relevant at that stage. The gap was 9 points and now, after 25 games, it is still 8 points. That's hardly reeling us in is it.

Er, that's my point. To put it another way, although they've leapt up the table, they've only gained one point on us in 17 games.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

cjd - I was showing the average points per game for each team. The gap between BHA and Southampton is not noticeably closing. You picked last 10 games, I could pick the last 5 or someone else could pick the last 15. Point is, they are not closing the gap - so I don't get the obssesion NSC has with them. There are more genuine threats than just Southampton.

Life After Bobby - noted. Thought you were saying that theyw ere closing in. And of course you weren't.

 

[Arthritic Toe]

Not really sure what point you're trying to make with average points per game and charts - you can tell they're not closing the gap on us by just looking at the gap. The fear is that they will start playing with the consistency and quality that their squad merits, i.e. their historical form will be no indication of their future form.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

The average chart came from something else I was looking at (trying to see how often we have been at or near ther 2pts per game Gus says we need to be guaranteed a promotion). So of course, the gap is the gap. Fact is they have not closed the gap thus far. Of course everything may change - but we're now more than half way through the season, they have a lot of away games to catch up on and they haven't been able to close the gap thus far.

They are a threat - but they aren't THE threat.

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

The ideal scenario on Saturday is Saints to hang on for a draw against Manu and then be totally shagged on Tuesday night when they go down to Exeter.

 

[Icy Gull]

You may be right about them not threatening and very funny it is too BUT they worry me enough to be the 1st result I look for after/during our games..

 

[Life After Bobby]

The reality is that there is no specific threat. If we continue with our form, we will go up as champions.

Everybody has been taking points off each other, we've suffered the least from this. Our run-in looked daunting to us at the beginning of the season, but it means that we're not going to be playing Hudds, Weds and Saints again until then, whereas they'll all be playing each other AND the other contenders - three of which, Bournemouth, Charlton and Peterborough, we have completed our games against.

So we need to continue our form against provisionally poorer teams to reach a run in dominated by games at Fortress Withdean which will be tougher for our opponents than us.