Season Comparison

[Turkey]

       02/03   04/05
[B] 1[/B]	 3	 0
[B] 2[/B]	 4	 0
[B] 3[/B]	 4	 1
 [B]4[/B]	 4	 1
[B] 5[/B]	 4	 4
[B] 6[/B]	 4	 7
[B] 7[/B]	 4	 8
 [B]8[/B]	 4	 8
 [B]9[/B]	 4	 8
[B]10[/B]	 4	11
[B]11[/B]	 4	14
[B]12[/B]	 4	15
[B]13[/B]	 4	15
[B]14	 [/B]4	16
[B]15	 [/B]7	19
[B]16	 [/B]8	19
[B]17	[/B]11	19
[B]18	[/B]12	19
[B]19	[/B]12	22
[B]20	[/B]12	22
[B]21	[/B]13	22
[B]22	[/B]14	25
[B]23	[/B]14	25
[B]24	[/B]14	25
[B]25	[/B]17	28
[B]26	[/B]18	29
[B]27	[/B]19	30
[B]28	[/B]20	33
[B]29	[/B]20	
[B]30	[/B]20	
[B]31	[/B]23	
[B]32	[/B]26	
[B]33	[/B]29	
[B]34	[/B]29	
[B]35	[/B]29	
[B]36	[/B]32	
[B]37	[/B]35	
[B]38	[/B]35	
[B]39	[/B]36	
[B]40	[/B]37	
[B]41	[/B]40	
[B]42	[/B]40	
[B]43	[/B]40	
[B]44	[/B]41	
[B]45	[/B]44	
[B]46	[/B]45

 1  	Portsmouth	27	59
 2 	Leicester City	27	55
 3  	Sheffield Utd	25	46
 4 	Norwich City	27	44
 5 	Nottm Forest	27	43
 6 	Coventry City	28	42
 7 	Reading	        26	42
 8 	Wolves	        27	41
 9 	Crystal Palace	27	41
10 	Watford	        28	39
11 	Rotherham	28	38
12 	Ipswich Town	27	38
13 	Millwall	28	37
14 	Burnley	        27	37
15 	Gillingham	26	36
16 	Derby County	28	35
17 	Wimbledon	26	34
18 	Preston	        27	31
19 	Walsall	        28	29
20 	Bradford City	26	28
21 	Grimsby Town	27	25
22 	Stoke City	28	24
23 	Sheffield Wed	28	23
24 	Brighton	27	19

The 02/03 team did really well in games 31, 32, 33 with three straight wins. Those 3 games this season are Derby (H), Cardiff (A) and Sunderland (H). Hopefully we can get some points there to really assert our position.

 

[saafend_seagull]

ignoring the first 13 or so games last time round our form, points wise is pretty much the same.

We just need to beat the sides around us when we play them.

only worrying thing is that we have our games against Plymouth, Coventry, Rotherham, and Cardiff away from home. Only Forest at home. And we have also played no one in the top 8 or so teams twice.

 

[dougdeep]

We should end up with 58 points then.

 

[Gully]

Just looking at the graph suggests that we will do enough to get about 50 points, this should see us avoid relegation. We are picking up points on a fairly even basis, a couple of defeats are normally followed up with a win, we have certainly done well to avoid the bad start that sunk us last time in this division.

I can understand you being worried Saafend, but the games you list, with perhaps the exception of Plymouth, should attract a large away following which is always vociferous and should help our team no end. Coventry and Plymouth are in free fall at the moment, I would be quite optimistic about getting all six points from them, even if we drew the games at Cardiff and Rotherham it wouldn't be the end of the World.

I reckon we have enough in the tank to make one or two of the teams near the top uncomfortable and possibly create a surprise or two along the way. I know there is a long way to go this season but I have a really good feeling that we will stay up this time.

 

[Jim D]

Well done Turkey - very useful and informative. It shows just how far we've come in the last 2 years, and the benefit of having the same manager since last season. It also shows the number of points that those teams in the relegation zone will need to escape, and allows us to compare with last time.

Looking at 2003, these are the points the others achieved in their remaining games, and their final totals:

Stoke 26 (50)
Sheff W 23 (46)
Brighton 26 (45)
Grimsby 16 (41)

Looking at today's league, these are the extra points (to reach 50) required by the teams in the danger zone:

Brighton 17
Coventry 18
Wolves 18
Cardiff 20
Gills 24
Forest 26
Rotherham 31

Based on 2 years ago, only Rotherham look to have an impossible task. Forest will be right on the edge and Gillingham will need to be at their best, but they both have a reasonable chance.

The other interesting point is that, of the bottom four, Grimsby appeared to have the best chance of escaping but collapsed to finish bottom.

Personally I think that Rotherham and Forest will go down, but I was impressed by Gillingham's workrate against us. If Stan Ternant can get them working hard and playing as a team then they could become very difficult to beat (good draws against Reading and Sunderland seem to confirm this).

There's still everything to play for and nothing at all for us to be complacent about - we need to fight even harder for the remainder of the season to avoid getting dragged back into the dogfight.

 

[Thimble Keegan]

As I have been saying all season I think 54 points should be the target to make 100% certain we stay up. That works out at 6 points per calender month from August to April (inclusive) therefore leaving May as a fall-back month.

If we aim for the 6 points target per month we will be ok. We are doing well with that so far and we only need another 3 points for this month to meet the target and stay on course for the 54 points.

We are staying up.

Albion & England forever.

Thimble Keegan
Worthing BHA

 

[Biscuit]

lol just like a true brother!

I completed my version last night! Just beat me to it!

 

[Saint Lennard]

me thinks the last half a dozen home games are a tad more difficult than last time so will ignore this drivel.

 

[Jim D]

It's difficult predicting which will be our hard or easy games. Looking at the 2002/3 table above we had home games against 6 teams in the top half and 4 in the bottom half. However, the points gained weren't split that way...

Team T/B Pts
Pompey T 1
Wimbledon B 0
Wolves T 3
Millwall B 3
Palace T 1
Forest T 3
Rotherham T 3
Preston B 0
Sheff W B 1
Watford T 3

So we got 14 points from 6 'top' teams (ave = 2.34) and 4 points from the 4 'bottom' teams. Perhaps this shows that we've got more to worry about from those in danger of going down than those trying to get up.

Also, the league table in March/April will look quite a bit different to that in December. We might well see Leicester and West Ham with nothing left to play for when they come to Withdean, and Ipswich might be full of Champagne (much as Wigan were when we beat them 1-0 in one of the last games at The Goldstone). If Rotherham are dead and buried by 30th April (as they should be) then it might just be an easier run-in than we'd feared.

 

[The Wookiee]

Simple, if we have the same 2nd half of the season as the first, we will stay up !!!!!!!!!

 

[larus]

Looking at the graphs, we have been consistantly about 10-12 points above our level since the 14th game. Unless the wheels come off, we will be OK.

Ignore the fixture list, just look at the way that we are playing. We're difficult to beat now, and I think that LK will score a few for the rest of the season.

We'll cause a few upsets between now and May.

 

[binary]

The sooner we get to 51/52 points the better. It will not be easy with the fixtures we have at home at the end but as long as we take points off Forest, Cardiff, Rotherham, Coventry and the others in the bottom half we should get the necessary points.

Just hope Mr Currie doesn't come back to haunt us on May 8th!!

 

[Yorkie]

Simple, if we have the same 2nd half of the season as the first, we will stay up !!!!!!!!!

We are improving. A draw with Watford turned into a win and a defeat to Wolves turned into a draw.

 

[Safeway]

f***'s sake Turkey, get a job.

 

[Beach Hut]

Very interesting and I like Thimble easy step by step guide - six points every month.

However there are less games this month as two FA Cup weeks.

 

[Thimble Keegan]

Very interesting and I like Thimble easy step by step guide - six points every month.

However there are less games this month as two FA Cup weeks.

Thanks Beachy and you are correct but we should still aim for the 6 points no matter how many games (unless it is less than 2, obviously).

The way I have been working it out is that I have been carrying forward the extra or the deficit. For example, in August we got 7 points therefore carrying 1 point forward and needing only to achieve 5 more points in September to stay on target. We carried a 2 point deficit from November into December so we needed to get 8 points to stay on track...We managed 7 points and again carried 1 forward to make January's target 7 points. We have won 4 points so far leaving us needing just 3 more to get in January.

We have the FA Cup this month but we still have 2 games (Sheffield United & Nottingham Forest) so if we look to win the Forest game anything we pick up from the proceeding United game will be a bonus we can take into Feburary.

It may be a strange way of working out our survival plan but I think it is a good way of gauging progress throughout the season.

Hopefully one day we will be in the Championship and I will working it out as 8 points per month which will put us on target for the play-offs...Here's dreaming.

Albion & England forever.

Thimble Keegan
Worthing BHA

 

[Beach Hut]

I see the logic so a win against Forest should do the trick for us.

And if we can produce something special at Sheffield United......

 

[Gully]

We came back from a goal down to beat Watford, earlier in the season I wouldn't have expected us to have achieved that, regardless of their current league position. We are definitely becoming harder to beat, I don't reckon many sides look forward to playing us, if Spurs take the "it's only Brighton" approach then they may come unstuck.

 

[Turkey]

f***'s sake Turkey, get a job.

Shut Up Steven.

 

[oapdodge]

If we get more points then 3 other teams then I am convinced we will stay up. I'll let you know at the end of the season. Until then I am not sure.