[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Think he may mean Ukraine carrying out a special military operation?

Yes, you're right. My mistake.

My excuse is that I've been blindsided by what is coming out of Russia right now, at government level. Panic, lies about the invasion, pleas to the international community to intervene, prayer days. Terrific stuff.

 

[Flounce]

Surely moves must be afoot to assassinate Putin sometime soon?

 

[Eric the meek]

Surely moves must be afoot to assassinate Putin sometime soon?

There's no doubt an element of singing to the choir, but.......

 

[Triggaaar]

Surely moves must be afoot to assassinate Putin sometime soon?

Unlikely I'd say. Anyone near him is probably just biding their time. The only point in doing it is they felt it was their best chance of survival, but they're safe for now, so why take such a huge risk?

 

[Eric the meek]

 

[peterward]

There's no doubt an element of singing to the choir, but.......

Oleg Deripaska who certainly was an Oligarch very close to Putin and funded a large part of the Crimea bridge, has broken rank!

 

[peterward]

 

[peterward]

 

[raymondo]

Nice animation

 

[Eric the meek]

Well, it's all very encouraging.

But where is it going? What is the plan? What happens when Russia gets its act together and piles into Kursk, if it isn't already doing so?

In the space of 5 days, Ukraine is now driving events. Defence is becoming offence. Putin has to respond to the invasion, otherwise he will look weak, and invite further offensives by Ukraine. Politically, he has to respond big time, or risk being deposed and killed. Tellingly, Putin he has already said it won't be easy or quick to chase the Ukrainians away. He is already managing expectations. Of course, if he responds, as he will, he will weaken somewhere else along the front line.

But Russia cannot defend all its borders. When/if Russia reinforces its defences in Kursk, will Ukraine dig in and stay to be shelled, or will it withdraw? Alternatively, will it go elsewhere and torment Russia in another part of its poorly-defended western borders?

As far as the bigger plan goes, we have some people speculating in the tweeted replies that Moscow is the ultimate goal. It probably is. Why wouldn't it be? But that talk is for the future. Right now, Russia is reinforcing the Kerch bridge with multiple barges. Russia is on the back foot.

It may be that history may tell us what the future holds. Russia has been invaded many times. It is vulnerable. Now the country it invaded two and a half years ago, is returning the compliment. Russia's vastness is its weakness. It cannot defend it all.

 

[Triggaaar]

Well, it's all very encouraging.

But where is it going? What is the plan? What happens when Russia gets its act together and piles into Kursk, if it isn't already doing so?

I'm sure Russia will throw as many troops as necessary to retake Kursk, so I just hope Ukraine have a good exit strategy, so they can inflict as much damage as possible without losing too many troops.

This is just one battle in a long war, and it's not going to be decisive.

 

[Eric the meek]

I'm sure Russia will throw as many troops as necessary to retake Kursk, so I just hope Ukraine have a good exit strategy, so they can inflict as much damage as possible without losing too many troops.

This is just one battle in a long war, and it's not going to be decisive.

Yes, that sounds likely.

But would Ukraine risk a big battle though and risk losing valuable troops? More to the point, do they need to?

What's so special about Kursk, apart from it being inside Russia, will embarrass Putin and is on the way to Moscow?

Did you see what I did there? I'm wondering if this is about Ukraine trying to destabilise Moscow further. We may soon find out.

 

[sparkie]

It'll be good if they can flatten the Kursk Bearing Plant while they are there.

 

[Triggaaar]

But would Ukraine risk a big battle though and risk losing valuable troops?

I hope not.

More to the point, do they need to?

No.

Did you see what I did there? I'm wondering if this is about Ukraine trying to destabilise Moscow further. We may soon find out.

I don't think it's about destabilising Moscow, I think it's simply an attempt to make Russia keep some of their forces on the border, defending the towns/cities, so that they're not fighting in Ukraine.

 

[Rugrat]

I'm sure Russia will throw as many troops as necessary to retake Kursk, so I just hope Ukraine have a good exit strategy, so they can inflict as much damage as possible without losing too many troops.

This is just one battle in a long war, and it's not going to be decisive.

I think I agree. It's very courageous of Ukraine to do this but Putin will just throw whatever he needs at it to deal with it. The 'cost' of doing so will be of no consequence to him whatsoever.

It's difficult to understand what Ukraine is trying to accomplish. Piss Putin off perhaps? Well that will be mission accomplished, but the retribution for doing is likely to be severe.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out because the reaction Ukraine are going to get once the Russians get their act together (to the extent that they ever will) is something they they must believe they can deal with. For the life of me I can't see how

 

[Triggaaar]

It's difficult to understand what Ukraine is trying to accomplish.

See my post above. If Russia have to keep more troops along their border towns, then they'll have fewer troops fighting in Ukraine.

 

[essbee1]

I think I agree. It's very courageous of Ukraine to do this but Putin will just throw whatever he needs at it to deal with it. The 'cost' of doing so will be of no consequence to him whatsoever.

It's difficult to understand what Ukraine is trying to accomplish. Piss Putin off perhaps? Well that will be mission accomplished, but the retribution for doing is likely to be severe.

It will be interesting to see how this plays out because the reaction Ukraine are going to get once the Russians get their act together (to the extent that they ever will) is something they they must believe they can deal with. For the life of me I can't see how

But can Russia get it's act together sufficiently? Resources, supplies, and other delays might be their Achilles heel here. And
Ukraine know it.

 

[peterward]

Well, it's all very encouraging.

But where is it going? What is the plan? What happens when Russia gets its act together and piles into Kursk, if it isn't already doing so?

In the space of 5 days, Ukraine is now driving events. Defence is becoming offence. Putin has to respond to the invasion, otherwise he will look weak, and invite further offensives by Ukraine. Politically, he has to respond big time, or risk being deposed and killed. Tellingly, Putin he has already said it won't be easy or quick to chase the Ukrainians away. He is already managing expectations. Of course, if he responds, as he will, he will weaken somewhere else along the front line.

But Russia cannot defend all its borders. When/if Russia reinforces its defences in Kursk, will Ukraine dig in and stay to be shelled, or will it withdraw? Alternatively, will it go elsewhere and torment Russia in another part of its poorly-defended western borders?

As far as the bigger plan goes, we have some people speculating in the tweeted replies that Moscow is the ultimate goal. It probably is. Why wouldn't it be? But that talk is for the future. Right now, Russia is reinforcing the Kerch bridge with multiple barges. Russia is on the back foot.

It may be that history may tell us what the future holds. Russia has been invaded many times. It is vulnerable. Now the country it invaded two and a half years ago, is returning the compliment. Russia's vastness is its weakness. It cannot defend it all.

Excellent and thoughtful as ever, whilst its all speculation as to overall strategy, I agree that its a brilliant manouevre by Ukraine for so many reasons. Its the first time Russia has been invaded since 1941, for a country built on ego and delusions of grandeur, thats impossible to stomach and makes Putin look weak, theres no doubt he will make it huge priority to eject the Ukrainians..... but therein lies his challenge, a prominent pro russian Milliblogger reckons it could take at least a year to get them out?? No idea how accurate that is, but its not like in Ukraine where you can simply raise a city to the ground, drop glide bombs and try and claim the ashes, how does Putin bomb his own territory?

Ive also read from some pretty informed military experts, that think the biggest event is still to come, they rationailse about the battalions that are not yet involved an still in reserve, nor certain weapons systems and the F16's, they all universally speculate, that drawing Russia into defend Kursk region, for all of the above reasons is likely all part of shaping operations for something bigger down the line?

Could it be Crimea and the Bridge, other sectors of the front line, or simply trying to flank Russias well dug in defences inside Ukraine and go around them through Russia itself?

I guess exciting is the wrong adjective in such circustances, but my desperation for tangible Ukrainian victories makes this period one filled with hopeful expectation.

I think this tweet somes it all up perfectly!

 

[Eric the meek]

Excellent and thoughtful as ever, whilst its all speculation as to overall strategy, I agree that its a brilliant manouevre by Ukraine for so many reasons. Its the first time Russia has been invaded since 1941, for a country built on ego and delusions of grandeur, thats impossible to stomach and makes Putin look weak, theres no doubt he will make it huge priority to eject the Ukrainians..... but therein lies his challenge, a prominent pro russian Milliblogger reckons it could take at least a year to get them out?? No idea how accurate that is, but its not like in Ukraine where you can simply raise a city to the ground, drop glide bombs and try and claim the ashes, how does Putin bomb his own territory?

Ive also read from some pretty informed military experts, that think the biggest event is still to come, they rationailse about the battalions that are not yet involved an still in reserve, nor certain weapons systems and the F16's, they all universally speculate, that drawing Russia into defend Kursk region, for all of the above reasons is likely all part of shaping operations for something bigger down the line?

Could it be Crimea and the Bridge, other sectors of the front line, or simply trying to flank Russias well dug in defences inside Ukraine and go around them through Russia itself?

I guess exciting is the wrong adjective in such circustances, but my desperation for tangible Ukrainian victories makes this period one filled with hopeful expectation.

I think this tweet somes it all up perfectly!

Thank you for your sentiment.

I saw the same thing somewhere - that it could take a year to eject the Ukrainians. I also saw the argument 'how could Putin bomb his own territory?'. On that one, I have no doubt that he could. Grozny? Numerous places in Ukraine? He continues to bomb Donetsk, Zap, Kherson etc, even after they've 'voted' to become part of Russia!

I wasn't aware that there are battalions still in reserve, but have seen tweets speculating that the big one is still to come. Who knows?

Some time ago, writing about the drone campaign against Russian oil refineries, I wrote that it was almost as if Ukraine are moving the front line to somewhere else. Well, that is even more true today, in Kursk. As for the shaping operations, that rings true.

By introducing a brand new front line, inside Russia, it might make Russia make some hard choices, and to staff the new front line, abandoning their farthest (=most expensive) positions inside Ukraine (Kherson). Just me thinking aloud.

 

[Rugrat]

But can Russia get it's act together sufficiently? Resources, supplies, and other delays might be their Achilles heel here. And
Ukraine know it.

I read some were that Russia have 75,000 troops on the border, that may or may not be correct but they'll always overwhelm Ukraine from a manpower perspective. Putin will just get whatever he needs by endless conscription.

I get the element of surprise, absolutely. I also believe the Ukrainians are way smarter and naturally way more motivated, militarily. I just can't get my head round how they deal with the tidal wave of fodder when it eventually shows up.

I'm beginning to think mass mutiny (Wagner type of revolt) might be part of the thinking but I don't need to admit that I know the square root of nothing about what's going on inside of the heads of any of those in Moscow or Kyiv.

The whole sodding thing is so futile and without reason it has t be the stuff of madmen (Russia that is)