[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[thejackal]

Will try and reply later, but Friday night calls

Ditto. My better half is looking at me with a "put your bloody phone down" face!

 

[thejackal]

He didn’t he sowed the seeds in 2014 and then started to prepare to invade the rest of the country

Wasn't it the Ukrainian nationalists, with the help from the west, that overthrew the elected government of Ukraine in 2014?

 

[hampshirebrightonboy]

Wasn't it the Ukrainian nationalists, with the help from the west, that overthrew the elected government of Ukraine in 2014?

Well according to Putin yes

 

[thejackal]

Well according to Putin yes

It's one perspective and, to be fair, not just Putin's

A US-Backed, Far Right–Led Revolution in Ukraine Helped Bring Us to the Brink of War

In 2014 Ukraine, great power gamesmanship, righteous anger at a corrupt status quo, and opportunistic far-right extremists toppled the government in the Maidan Revolution. Today’s crisis in Ukraine can’t be understood without understanding Maidan.

jacobin.com

 

[seagullwedgee]

What I find most depressing is reading silly comments like this one.

You must have a very pretty tenuous grip on reality if you can look upon this conflict as if it were some sort of game.

Or maybe you're just a WUM on a fishing expedition?

The sad truth, according to most impartial commentators, is that Ukraine has essentially lost the war (they have literally run out of men of fighting age) and now it's just a question of how to make peace.

Zelensky went to Davos just a few days ago but instead of his usual appeal for weaponry, has all but conceded the defeat, putting forward what's described as the Ukranian peace plan.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/world/europe/ukraine-zelensky-davos-switzerland-peace.html

My sincere apologies for having an opinion. And for using this as a discussion board.

 

[beorhthelm]

Oh dear, they're all coming out of the woodwork now. I don't claim to be an expert on the Russian military. If you want these answers then do your own research.

oh dear indeed, "do you own research", the retort that says you have nothing. my research would say Russia intended to take Kyiv, overthrow the Ukrainian state to install more friendly leadership. other research would suggest they wanted to block closer ties with the West, end talk of joining EU and NATO. a bit of a financial angle would suggest they wanted to choke off the supply of gas through Ukraine, to force use of their spanking new pipeline Nord2.

you have other, unspecified believes.

lets look at what they've achieved. about 250k Russian men, a quarter of their standing army, gone. ~6000 tanks and 18000 artillery, 10's thousands more APC gone. more signifcantly the Russian army shown to be rather poor quality. most the Russian Black Sea Fleet has run away from Sevastopol, scared of a country with negliable navy. Nord2 and Nord1 got taken out. Russian influence in rest of Eastern europe has collapsed. previously neutral Sweden and Finland joined NATO, the latter of which puts Russian access to their Northern Fleet under threat in the event of full war, a significant strategic failure. their economy is on life support, foreign investment drained, no imports of all the western good stuff the oligarchs enjoyed. oh yes, Russian oligarchs and business community made international pariahs. litterally take the country back decades. for the talk of possible peace talks, Ukraine is in talks to join EU this week.

on the positive side they have some more land in southern Ukraine.

what an utter, complete failure

 

[thejackal]

My sincere apologies for having an opinion. And for using this as a discussion board.

I'm sorry for being flippant.

I do think it's a bit off to be cheering on the destruction as if it were football.

It's not your opinion I took issue with.

 

[chickens]

You make some good points, some of which are mentioned here.

Putin's chances of winning Ukraine war look bright

"If we don't do anything different than we're doing now, eventually, Ukraine will lose."

www.newsweek.com

Putin's Chances of Winning Ukraine War Look Bright - Newsweek

I don’t think that article actually says anything we don’t know. Absolutely Ukraine requires equipment and munitions to continue this war.

I do feel the US Republican Party is playing a colossally stupid game with the fate of the entire West at present, and withholding aid just as a point-scoring exercise against the Democrats when timeliness of delivery is vital. I do wish I could see a few more grown-up politicians in the US generally, especially on the right atm.

However, I’d describe the current situation as an uncomfortable stalemate on both sides. Absolutely if the US stop providing aid, it makes a Russian victory far more likely, but aid to Ukraine is effectively being used as a bargaining chip by the US right, who are quite literally taking a scorched earth approach to the US’s position as a global leader.

Fail Ukraine, and they will continue to have allies, but they will no longer be trusted. I do feel that being geographically distant to the conflict, the blinkered hard-right faction within the Republican Party simply doesn’t understand the enormity of its actions for the US globally, or at least in Europe.

Russia is not without its challenges too however, and in particular hardware lost is not easily replaced. Absolutely they have a deeper pool of people, but if they charge at Ukraine armed with weapons by Mattel, I suspect Ukraine will be able to repel them.

Anyway, enjoy your Friday night.

 

[seagullwedgee]

I'm sorry for being flippant.

I do think it's a bit off to be cheering on the destruction as if it were football.

It's not your opinion I took issue with.

My point simply being, they have been pulverised for 696 days, their nation and families and their infrastructure and their utilities ripped apart. Just striking back at the aggressor’s utilities is something literally to celebrate. That’s all.

 

[thejackal]

oh dear indeed, "do you own research", the retort that says you have nothing.

Not at all. If you want to state Russia's aims then post your evidence here. I have a life and I don't have the time or inclination to prove or disprove your point for you.

my research would say Russia intended to take Kyiv, overthrow the Ukrainian state to install more friendly leadership. other research would suggest they wanted to block closer ties with the West, end talk of joining EU and NATO. a bit of a financial angle would suggest they wanted to choke off the supply of gas through Ukraine, to force use of their spanking new pipeline Nord2.

Those weren't Russia's stated objectives, as far as I can tell. You haven't provided any evidence for your claims.

you have other, unspecified believes.

We all have our opinions. I like to base mine as much on facts as possible.

lets look at what they've achieved. about 250k Russian men, a quarter of their standing army, gone. ~6000 tanks and 18000 artillery, 10's thousands more APC gone. more signifcantly the Russian army shown to be rather poor quality. most the Russian Black Sea Fleet has run away from Sevastopol, scared of a country with negliable navy. Nord2 and Nord1 got taken out. Russian influence in rest of Eastern europe has collapsed. previously neutral Sweden and Finland joined NATO, the latter of which puts Russian access to their Northern Fleet under threat in the event of full war, a significant strategic failure. their economy is on life support, foreign investment drained, no imports of all the western good stuff the oligarchs enjoyed. oh yes, Russian oligarchs and business community made international pariahs. litterally take the country back decades. for the talk of possible peace talks, Ukraine is in talks to join EU this week.

on the positive side they have some more land in southern Ukraine.

what an utter, complete failure

That is really just a question of perspective. I'm not agreeing with the Russian view, but they still have their black sea ports, Ukraine is all but destroyed and they now occupy the Russian-speaking areas. I'm not cheering for the Russians but to suggest that the situation is positive for Ukraine, or that they can even win this war, is, from what I am reading in many places (some very mainstream) now pretty much delusional.

 

[raymondo]

1. Good old Russian disinformation again. Russians just can't help themselves. If you watched the first 9 minutes of the Jake Broe video, you will see that they are admitting the spy plane was shot down, but not by Ukraine, instead claiming it was shot down by friendly fire. So the incompetence of friendly fire is more preferable than letting the Russian masses know the truth - that Ukraine can shoot down their spy planes. Absolutely fantastic.

2. Sweden also mentioned they should prepare for the possibility of war. I assume it is a co-ordinated effort, and also assume it is based on real intelligence.

I mentioned the spy plane because it is thought that Russia has only a handful of A-50 command and control spy planes, spread thinly patrolling the vast areas of the Arctic, the far east opposite Alaska, the Chinese border, the Baltic/Kaliningrad/St. Petersburg, maybe a separate one for Moscow, and of course Ukraine and the Black Sea. When the Ukraine one was shot down, they would have had to pull one from elsewhere to replace it. So there is potentially a shifting hole in Russia's early warning system.

Yes, amazing that 'friendly fire ' was preferable!!
From what I've read, yes only a handful of A50s, so that was a big prize for Ukraine, and Russia can't replace it quickly or cheaply.
Maybe they'll pull one from the Chinese border since they have a 'no limits ' relationship. Hmmm... l wonder.

 

[vegster]

1. Good old Russian disinformation again. Russians just can't help themselves. If you watched the first 9 minutes of the Jake Broe video, you will see that they are admitting the spy plane was shot down, but not by Ukraine, instead claiming it was shot down by friendly fire. So the incompetence of friendly fire is more preferable than letting the Russian masses know the truth - that Ukraine can shoot down their spy planes. Absolutely fantastic.

2. Sweden also mentioned they should prepare for the possibility of war. I assume it is a co-ordinated effort, and also assume it is based on real intelligence.

I mentioned the spy plane because it is thought that Russia has only a handful of A-50 command and control spy planes, spread thinly patrolling the vast areas of the Arctic, the far east opposite Alaska, the Chinese border, the Baltic/Kaliningrad/St. Petersburg, maybe a separate one for Moscow, and of course Ukraine and the Black Sea. When the Ukraine one was shot down, they would have had to pull one from elsewhere to replace it. So there is potentially a shifting hole in Russia's early warning system.

Add to that the fact that they have lost an experienced crew on that plane plus the increasing shortage of spares for those planes due to sanctions, further reduces their air cover capabilities.

 

[seagullwedgee]

I would feckin love it if someone steamed in on their defensive surveillance weakness and feckin destroyed these cnuts, I would loov it. Royalties to Kevin Keegan.

 

[beorhthelm]

...

We all have our opinions. I like to base mine as much on facts as possible.
...

you haven't even stated your opinion though, let alone support with facts. just said everyone else has got it wrong.

for a supposedly destroyed country, Ukraine is doing a sterling job holding the line against the might of a one time superpower. the main voice saying they will lose, Russia will win, are from those using that to justify more military support, such as in your Newsweek article. it's patently obvious Russia cannot see this outcome as a win.

 

[beorhthelm]

I don’t think that article actually says anything we don’t know. Absolutely Ukraine requires equipment and munitions to continue this war.

I do feel the US Republican Party is playing a colossally stupid game with the fate of the entire West at present, and withholding aid just as a point-scoring exercise against the Democrats when timeliness of delivery is vital. I do wish I could see a few more grown-up politicians in the US generally, especially on the right atm.

However, I’d describe the current situation as an uncomfortable stalemate on both sides. Absolutely if the US stop providing aid, it makes a Russian victory far more likely, but aid to Ukraine is effectively being used as a bargaining chip by the US right, who are quite literally taking a scorched earth approach to the US’s position as a global leader.

Fail Ukraine, and they will continue to have allies, but they will no longer be trusted. I do feel that being geographically distant to the conflict, the blinkered hard-right faction within the Republican Party simply doesn’t understand the enormity of its actions for the US globally, or at least in Europe.

Russia is not without its challenges too however, and in particular hardware lost is not easily replaced. Absolutely they have a deeper pool of people, but if they charge at Ukraine armed with weapons by Mattel, I suspect Ukraine will be able to repel them.

Anyway, enjoy your Friday night.

Republicans will carry on feeding the military industry where most that funding goes. they wont even care about the 180 if they they win, remember Trump wanted to get out of Afganistan, achieved 6 mths after he left.

 

[Wardy's twin]

No it wasn't. If that was the case, post some evidence of it.

If all they wanted to do was secure the Donbas and the black sea ports then why place a large army on Kyiv's doorstep which is in the north all that resource should have stayed in the east.

Putin is a clever chap , he's not going to say he wants to takeover Ukraine as that would make him the obvious aggressor whereas stating he is conducting a small operation to defend the Russian speakers in the east makes him look (or try to look) as the innocent party reacting to Ukrainian aggression.

 

[Nobby]

What I find most depressing is reading silly comments like this one.

You must have a very pretty tenuous grip on reality if you can look upon this conflict as if it were some sort of game.

Or maybe you're just a WUM on a fishing expedition?

The sad truth, according to most impartial commentators, is that Ukraine has essentially lost the war (they have literally run out of men of fighting age) and now it's just a question of how to make peace.

Zelensky went to Davos just a few days ago but instead of his usual appeal for weaponry, has all but conceded the defeat, putting forward what's described as the Ukranian peace plan.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/world/europe/ukraine-zelensky-davos-switzerland-peace.html

Maybe read some actual news from trusted sources?

 

[sparkie]

But you said 'Clearly, by anyone's measure, the Russians have met their objectives'

Their objective was to take Kyiv in three days. Why is that whataboutery?

And Odesa. The Russians want Odesa.

Nothing ever came of that feared amphibious landing.

I don't think Vladimir even has all the landing ships anymore.

 

[thejackal]

you haven't even stated your opinion though, let alone support with facts. just said everyone else has got it wrong.

It's not about my opinion. I articulated what I have been reading across multiple, differing sources, namely that the Ukrainians are starting to see the war as a lost cause, that they will have to forge some sort of peace soon, and that the peace will be difficult for Ukraine to frame as a victory - and I provided several links to back it up. Who knows how it'll pan out, I certainly don't.

for a supposedly destroyed country, Ukraine is doing a sterling job holding the line against the might of a one time superpower. the main voice saying they will lose, Russia will win are from those using that to justify more military support, such as in your Newsweek article. it's patently obvious Russia can not see this outcome as a win.

I didn't post any links to any Russian sources. My quotes are all from reputable western sources, save for an excerpt from a speech.

I'm not here to cheer either side on, I'm honestly not emotionally attached to either side. I'm just interested in the facts.

 

[thejackal]

Maybe read some actual news from trusted sources?

As opposed to the New York Times?