[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Absolutely this. I suggested this within weeks, if not days, of the war starting. Without, it must be said, attracting a great deal of enthusiasm! I understand large numbers of Russians wouldn't believe it - or would just refuse to believe - and I understand those who thought their IT propaganda boys were better than ours - but I still think we should have a specialist team somewhere tasked to do just that.

Maybe we have. So maybe we need a better specialist team..............

The danger of propaganda is that it is propaganda. It can be picked up, held aloft by the enemy and used to aid their own propaganda, by occupying the high moral ground. 'Look at what the west is doing. Blatant propaganda! Russia does not resort to such tactics.'

So I would caution against it. Better to just stick to the facts, back them up with photographic and video evidence, and broadcast it in such a way that Russians can relate to (in local languages?), Moscow-based gatekeepers cannot easily block it, and its effectiveness can be tracked and measured.

The video evidence of the utilities industry that Konstantin provided is powerful and graphic. So too, might his coming evidence on the aviation industry. I go back to the extraordinary story of the St. Petersburg city budget being used to rebuild Mariupol, while St. Petersburg freezes and floods in darkness. If true, this has huge potential.

I realise that talking about it and actually finding ways that work are two different things....

 

[GT49er]

The danger of propaganda is that it is propaganda. It can be picked up, held aloft by the enemy and used to aid their own propaganda, by occupying the high moral ground. 'Look at what the west is doing. Blatant propaganda! Russia does not resort to such tactics.'

So I would caution against it. Better to just stick to the facts, back them up with photographic and video evidence, and broadcast it in such a way that Russians can relate to (in local languages?), Moscow-based gatekeepers cannot easily block it, and its effectiveness can be tracked and measured.

The video evidence of the utilities industry that Konstantin provided is powerful and graphic. So too, might his coming evidence on the aviation industry. I go back to the extraordinary story of the St. Petersburg city budget being used to rebuild Mariupol, while St. Petersburg freezes and floods in darkness. If true, this has huge potential.

I realise that talking about it and actually finding ways that work are two different things....

Perhaps the word propaganda was wrong - for the west's side anyway. The Russian government is certainly flooding the country with propaganda - what the west needs to do is to make the truth more available to the Russian people, to 'out-propaganda' (with the truth) the Russian government propagandists.

We need better IT whizz-kids than the Russian IT whizz-kids working on the news feeds, to put it simply.

 

[Eric the meek]

I'm not sure what Pakistan's retaliatory strike on Iran ultimately means, but here's hoping it will disrupt the flow of weapons from Iran to Russia.

 

[GT49er]

I'm not sure what Pakistan's retaliatory strike on Iran ultimately means, but here's hoping it will disrupt the flow of weapons from Iran to Russia.

With due respect to the people who have lost their lives because of these events, I don't think this is more than a border skirmish, handbags at drone-range at the moment.




Escalation is, of course, sadly a possibility.

 

[seagullwedgee]

I love it when the underdog team scores a worldie.

Ukraine drone hits massive Russian oil storage facility about 60 miles inside the Russian border.

get in!

 

[seagullwedgee]

Also unconfirmed (as in no photographs of the scene) Ukrainian drone hits a gunpowder production facility in the city of Tambov, 250 miles inside the Russian border. I’d really like to see footage of that one going up.

 

[thejackal]

I love it when the underdog team scores a worldie.

Ukraine drone hits massive Russian oil storage facility about 60 miles inside the Russian border.

get in!

What I find most depressing is reading silly comments like this one.

You must have a very pretty tenuous grip on reality if you can look upon this conflict as if it were some sort of game.

Or maybe you're just a WUM on a fishing expedition?

The sad truth, according to most impartial commentators, is that Ukraine has essentially lost the war (they have literally run out of men of fighting age) and now it's just a question of how to make peace.

Zelensky went to Davos just a few days ago but instead of his usual appeal for weaponry, has all but conceded the defeat, putting forward what's described as the Ukranian peace plan.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/world/europe/ukraine-zelensky-davos-switzerland-peace.html

 

[Zeberdi]

Surely folk are not really hoping for even more conflict to break out in yet another region just to redirect weapons from Ukraine are they? Between one nuclear powered country and another that is determined to develop them? War is horrible for everyone, especially innocent civilians and animals regardless of where it takes place.

TBh - The exchange of fire between Pakistan and Iran looks at the moment mainly like Iran flexing its muscles - both have an interest in keeping a lid on terrorists operating near their shared borders which have been a focal point for skirmishes for years. However, Pakistan’s close ties with the US and Saudi Arabia vis a vis Iran’s with Russia, can’t be ignored in the context of either the war in Gaza or Ukraine. Both wars are destablising Europe, the ME and Asia - the geopolitical boundaries of influence in all regions are being challenged by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Israel’s intransigence to a Palestinian state and are in a state of violent flux - add to that, over 50 countries having leadership elections this year, including of some of the world’s most influential players the instability is not going to go away in the immediate future - the key is how deep the fissures will go, what the landscape will look like after it. Hoping Ukraine’s problems can be eased by diverting conflict elsewhere is moving the deckchairs around on the Titanic. The serious global instability we are experiencing is not just about Ukraine and Gaza anymore - in fact I don’t think it ever was.

From friend to foe: What caused the Iran-Pakistan conflict?

While Iran and Pakistan have shared warm relations historically, the current conflict is as much about internal struggles as it is about external tensions

www.tbsnews.net

Over 50 countries go to the polls in 2024. The year will test even the most robust democracies

More than 50 countries that together have half the world’s population are expecting national elections in 2024.

apnews.com

 

[Zeberdi]

Zelensky went to Davos just a few days ago but instead of his usual appeal for weaponry, has all but conceded the defeat, putting forward what's described as the Ukranian peace plan.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/world/europe/ukraine-zelensky-davos-switzerland-peace.html

This doesn’t look like a defeatist plan to me, quite the contrary

“The plan calls for a full Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea; payment of reparations; and prosecution of war crimes. All of those demands are considered, by analysts and even politicians backing the proposal, to be unreachable given the current balance of forces on the battlefield. The proposal also includes intermediary steps, such as securing Ukrainian nuclear sites, ensuring grain exports and exchanging prisoners of war.”

A bit unrealistic though but it reaffirms to me that Ukraine is far from conceding defeat more looking at post war construction and networking the Davos connections to call for investment.

 

[GT49er]

What I find most depressing is reading silly comments like this one.

You must have a very pretty tenuous grip on reality if you can look upon this conflict as if it were some sort of game.

Or maybe you're just a WUM on a fishing expedition?

The sad truth, according to most impartial commentators, is that Ukraine has essentially lost the war (they have literally run out of men of fighting age) and now it's just a question of how to make peace.

Zelensky went to Davos just a few days ago but instead of his usual appeal for weaponry, has all but conceded the defeat, putting forward what's described as the Ukranian peace plan.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/world/europe/ukraine-zelensky-davos-switzerland-peace.html

A peace plan that involves Russian withdrawal from the Donbas and Crimea? Conceding defeat? That peace plan sounds more like a resounding victory for Ukraine to me!

 

[essbee1]

What I find most depressing is reading silly comments like this one.

You must have a very pretty tenuous grip on reality if you can look upon this conflict as if it were some sort of game.

Or maybe you're just a WUM on a fishing expedition?

The sad truth, according to most impartial commentators, is that Ukraine has essentially lost the war (they have literally run out of men of fighting age) and now it's just a question of how to make peace.

Zelensky went to Davos just a few days ago but instead of his usual appeal for weaponry, has all but conceded the defeat, putting forward what's described as the Ukranian peace plan.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/16/world/europe/ukraine-zelensky-davos-switzerland-peace.html

Jackal. This is the first I've heard of what you are suggesting and your post does come across as a bit simplistic.

 

[Eric the meek]

Surely folk are not really hoping for even more conflict to break out in yet another region just to redirect weapons from Ukraine are they? Between one nuclear powered country and another that is determined to develop them? War is horrible for everyone, especially innocent civilians and animals regardless of where it takes place.

You make a valid point.

Was I hoping for that? I'm not sure I was hoping for more conflict between Iran and Pakistan, just that following the current reciprocal strikes, weapons earmarked for Russia would no longer be sent there. Not quite the same thing, but you caused me to stop and think. Sometimes I can be a little too focused on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, without due consideration to other consequences, e.g. a possible escalation in the Iran-Pakistan conflict.

 

[thejackal]

A peace plan that involves Russian withdrawal from the Donbas and Crimea? Conceding defeat? That peace plan sounds more like a resounding victory for Ukraine to me!

Well yes, obviously Russia isn't going to accept it in that form.

The loser in the war doesn't get to dictate the terms of the armstice.

 

[thejackal]

Jackal. This is the first I've heard of what you are suggesting and your post does come across as a bit simplistic.

Did you read the nyt article I posted?

Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine

The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive…

ecfr.eu

Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a war of attrition – which on current projections Russia is set to win.

U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal with Russia.

www.nbcnews.com

I can dig out some more articles when I've downed tools for the day.

 

[GT49er]

Did you read the nyt article I posted?

Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine

The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive…

ecfr.eu

U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal with Russia.

www.nbcnews.com

I can dig out some more articles when I've downed tools for the day.

Yes, I suspect that like me he did read the NY Post article you linked to and read about the proposed 'peace deal' - which contrasted vividly with your assertion in your post that Zelensky had gone to Davos "all but conceding defeat."

 

[raymondo]

Did you read the nyt article I posted?

Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in Ukraine

The Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive…

ecfr.eu

U.S., European officials broach topic of peace negotiations with Ukraine, sources say

The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal with Russia.

www.nbcnews.com

I can dig out some more articles when I've downed tools for the day.

And I or someone else can dig out other articles that demonstrate the opposite. I 'agree ' that it looks like a stalemate for now,but I don't believe Ukraine has lost at all. I'm sure there are many wide ranging options regularly under discussion.

 

[essbee1]

Yes, I suspect that like me he did read the NY Post article you linked to and read about the proposed 'peace deal' - which contrasted vividly with your assertion in your post that Zelensky had gone to Davos "all but conceding defeat."

Exactly.

 

[thejackal]

This doesn’t look like a defeatist plan to me, quite the contrary

“The plan calls for a full Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea; payment of reparations; and prosecution of war crimes. All of those demands are considered, by analysts and even politicians backing the proposal, to be unreachable given the current balance of forces on the battlefield. The proposal also includes intermediary steps, such as securing Ukrainian nuclear sites, ensuring grain exports and exchanging prisoners of war.”

A bit unrealistic though but it reaffirms to me that Ukraine is far from conceding defeat more looking at post war construction and networking the Davos connections to call for investment.

A bit unrealistic? It's the loser asking for their lost territory back. It's a joke of a plan, nothing more than bluster

It's no secret that Zelensky's own generals were the ones that had to talk him into accepting that the war can no longer be won.

Any peace plan is a radical departure from what came before (victory or death) is really nothing more than hot air, I'm sorry to say.

Nobody really wants to hear them but these are the cold facts. NBC etc are never going to say out loud that the war is lost but the change in tone from the lot of them is very revealing.

 

[thejackal]

And I or someone else can dig out other articles that demonstrate the opposite. I 'agree ' that it looks like a stalemate for now,but I don't believe Ukraine has lost at all. I'm sure there are many wide ranging options regularly under discussion.

Exactly.

As I said above, the New York Times isn't going to throw the towel in yet but the step-change in Ukraine's approach is much more telling, and the fact that you can glean this from the mainstream media is equally important. You can see that the tide has turned from "we will defeat the Russians" to "how will the peace look?"

 

[essbee1]

Jackal - fair enough. You have your point of view, shaped by what you read etc.
I have my own view which differs significantly. "Cold facts" is mere folly.