[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

Neither were the Russians evidently. What an extraordinary statement of intent this is.

For context, the distance from Chelyabinsk to Severomuysk is 4000 km. Chelyabinsk (where the tank engine factory was blown up a few days ago) is itself 1800 km east of Moscow. How on earth did Ukraine manage it? What route did they take? Through Russia? Or some other route? Did they have help?

I read somewhere a few weeks ago that Ukraine, being in what is for them, an existential war, are aiming high and seeking regime change in Moscow. One of their objectives is to foment unrest in Russia, to show Russians that Putin cannot protect them. Could it be that Ukraine has help from friendly partisans in Russia's ethnic regions?

Indeed.
According to a Russian census in 2015 there were 5.8 million Ukrainians living in Russia. Naturally numbers will have changed since the occupation of Crimea, Donbas, and then the full-scale invasion. Still, I wager there are still very significant numbers there. It only requires a small percentage of them to have the desire, capability to liaise with Ukrainian military... and there we go.
And/ or, as you say, friendly Russian partisans, or Ukrainian saboteur groups.
Maybe we'll find out in a book one day?

 

[raymondo]

Latest news from my in-laws' occupied village, which lies between Tokmak and the Zap. power station.
My wife has heard via friends and parents that Russia is making the finances of the locals easier than they've had for years:
- here, have a top up to your pension etc
- have your gas supply at a vastly reduced cost (it's almost free, according to my wife)...
Gas was a very big cost to the villagers before, being their main fuel for heating and cooking. The price increased every year, partly because of insufficient competition, but mainly (we believe) because Russia increased the export price annually.
Now Russia is (for now) providing it so cheaply that my wife thinks even an honest referendum would result in a vote to 'stay' Russian. The villagers are mainly farming, retired or local teachers and income is low.
So, their loyalty is being bought (they still don't clearly understand what happened in Mariupol, Bucha etc).

 

[Eric the meek]

Indeed.
According to a Russian census in 2015 there were 5.8 million Ukrainians living in Russia. Naturally numbers will have changed since the occupation of Crimea, Donbas, and then the full-scale invasion. Still, I wager there are still very significant numbers there. It only requires a small percentage of them to have the desire, capability to liaise with Ukrainian military... and there we go.
And/ or, as you say, friendly Russian partisans, or Ukrainian saboteur groups.
Maybe we'll find out in a book one day?

I wasn't aware of those numbers. You are right. They are significant. Bear in mind this Ukrainian action took place in the far east, beyond even Lake Baikal. Are there many Ukrainians there?

Got a spare 13 minutes?

Watch this video of 5 months ago by Peter Zeihan, an American author on Geopolitics. He has some interesting things to say about the demographics of Russia and the future of the Russian Federation. He discusses Ukraine inflicting a defeat on Moscow (just Moscow, not the rest of Russia) which could lead to a march on the Kremlin, and Putin and his clique are removed. Far fetched? See what you think.

 

[SeagullinExile]

Neither were the Russians evidently. What an extraordinary statement of intent this is.

For context, the distance from Chelyabinsk to Severomuysk is 4000 km. Chelyabinsk (where the tank engine factory was blown up a few days ago) is itself 1800 km east of Moscow. How on earth did Ukraine manage it? What route did they take? Through Russia? Or some other route? Did they have help?

I read somewhere a few weeks ago that Ukraine, being in what is for them, an existential war, are aiming high and seeking regime change in Moscow. One of their objectives is to foment unrest in Russia, to show Russians that Putin cannot protect them. Could it be that Ukraine has help from friendly partisans in Russia's ethnic regions?

I would imagine they have help from Russian dissidents? The Russian Volunteer Corp is an active unit in the Ukrainian military, it currently has approximately 200 fighters. So there are plenty of Russians willing to help.

 

[SeagullinExile]

I would imagine they have help from Russian dissidents? The Russian Volunteer Corp is an active unit in the Ukrainian military, it currently has approximately 200 fighters. So there are plenty of Russians willing to help.

Forgot to add that the best part of 20 partisan & Separatist groups are operating in Russia & Belarus since the war began.

 

[raymondo]

I wasn't aware of those numbers. You are right. They are significant. Bear in mind this Ukrainian action took place in the far east, beyond even Lake Baikal. Are there many Ukrainians there?

Got a spare 13 minutes?

Watch this video of 5 months ago by Peter Zeihan, an American author on Geopolitics. He has some interesting things to say about the demographics of Russia and the future of the Russian Federation. He discusses Ukraine inflicting a defeat on Moscow (just Moscow, not the rest of Russia) which could lead to a march on the Kremlin, and Putin and his clique are removed. Far fetched? See what you think.

I will watch that video, thank you .

I don't know the percentage of Ukrainians by Russian region from that census,but will try to dig into that. However, here's a sample of one person, the father of our niece (who now lives with us) from Zaporizhzhya: he worked in a factory in Siberia for 2 years, circa 2013-14. This was very common, certainly at that time. Employment was difficult in Ukraine, and wages low - in Russia, especially in provinces with difficult climates and conditions, the wages were very good and many 'working class' Ukrainians would take these jobs.
There was also (as far as I understand) some fluidity among professional positions: engineers, doctors etc, with easy movement between both countries.

 

[portslade seagull]

'Ukraine says it hit railway near Russia's border with China' - BBC, a few minutes ago.

Ukraine says it blew up railway in eastern Russia

Explosions are said to have hit trains on the Baikal Amur mainline 500km from the Chinese border.

www.bbc.co.uk

Wow.

Reports advising it was within a 12km tunnel which could take weeks if not months to clear and repair

 

[A1X]

Reports advising it was within a 12km tunnel which could take weeks if not months to clear and repair

 

[raymondo]

Here's more up to date data on ethnic groups in Russia, census 2021.
Page down to the 'Ethnic groups' link and the pie chart shows 1.9 million Ukrainians in Russia (still not by region).
The piece also shows interesting data on Russia's population decline for many years - a low birth rate (and further exacerbated by the recent war exodus). It's an ageing population (plus a brain drain) and there's a future projection.

Demographics of Russia - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[raymondo]

Forgot to add that the best part of 20 partisan & Separatist groups are operating in Russia & Belarus since the war began.

You often know very interesting details such as the above. Are you in exile because you are ex-MI6 ? ...asking for a friend.

 

[SeagullinExile]

You often know very interesting details such as the above. Are you in exile because you are ex-MI6 ? ...asking for a friend.

Hehe. Nah, I read a couple of articles a while back, nothing more!!

 

[dangull]

For such a large country it's pretty lowly populated. I read somwhere that the population of Germany and the UK combined is about the same.

 

[Sirnormangall]

Not been a good week for Putin: the tank factory, the tunnel and I saw too that a couple of days ago Ukraine hacked into Crimea’s tv network to broadcast an address by Zelensky. The front line is crucial- but war isn’t just about the front line

 

[raymondo]

I wasn't aware of those numbers. You are right. They are significant. Bear in mind this Ukrainian action took place in the far east, beyond even Lake Baikal. Are there many Ukrainians there?

Got a spare 13 minutes?

Watch this video of 5 months ago by Peter Zeihan, an American author on Geopolitics. He has some interesting things to say about the demographics of Russia and the future of the Russian Federation. He discusses Ukraine inflicting a defeat on Moscow (just Moscow, not the rest of Russia) which could lead to a march on the Kremlin, and Putin and his clique are removed. Far fetched? See what you think.

That was fascinating @Eric the meek . Very accessible, and looking at Russia's strategy from a different view than I'd read or understood before. Thank you!

 

[Eric the meek]

That was fascinating @Eric the meek . Very accessible, and looking at Russia's strategy from a different view than I'd read or understood before. Thank you!

The demographics stuff makes sense doesn't it? Especially when you hear Putin urging Russian women to have 8 or more children. He's doing it in an attempt to protect Russia's future. The video was made before he made that announcement of course.

Yesterday I watched a wide ranging discussion by Jonathan Fink and Konstantin Samoilov. It told us a lot of what we already knew (Russian ruble falling, economy declining, inflation and interest rates high) but then it veered off into speculation. Is Putin dead? Samoilov doesn't know. Fair enough. But he says something profound is happening inside the Kremlin. Why hasn't Putin announced his candidacy for the Presidential election? Is he going to? Or is he going to bow out?

We were reminded of Churchill's quote:

"Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won.”

I recall Patrushev got a few mentions....

For me, the most thought provoking thing was from about 56:00 onwards. Do you remember the attempted pogrom at the airport in Dagestan? According to Samoilov, there are just 600 Jewish households in Dagestan. He asked the question, 'What will happen when the Dagestanis run out of Jews? Who are they going to go after next? They will go for the Russians. Russians are in the minority in many other states.'

 

[raymondo]

The demographics stuff makes sense doesn't it? Especially when you hear Putin urging Russian women to have 8 or more children. He's doing it in an attempt to protect Russia's future. The video was made before he made that announcement of course.

Yesterday I watched a wide ranging discussion by Jonathan Fink and Konstantin Samoilov. It told us a lot of what we already knew (Russian ruble falling, economy declining, inflation and interest rates high) but then it veered off into speculation. Is Putin dead? Samoilov doesn't know. Fair enough. But he says something profound is happening inside the Kremlin. Why hasn't Putin announced his candidacy for the Presidential election? Is he going to? Or is he going to bow out?

We were reminded of Churchill's quote:

"Kremlin political intrigues are comparable to a bulldog fight under a rug. An outsider only hears the growling, and when he sees the bones fly out from beneath it is obvious who won.”

I recall Patrushev got a few mentions....

For me, the most thought provoking thing was from about 56:00 onwards. Do you remember the attempted pogrom at the airport in Dagestan? According to Samoilov, there are just 600 Jewish households in Dagestan. He asked the question, 'What will happen when the Dagestanis run out of Jews? Who are they going to go after next? They will go for the Russians. Russians are in the minority in many other states.'

Yes, the demographics make sense and is a key driver. I was thinking about it while looking at the wiki census graphs, then Zeihan's video brought it together very nicely.
There's some irony that Russia want to use the current younger men of fighting age to expand their borders.. and they've also succeeded in driving possibly millions of them out of the country to avoid the draft.
You've sent me another video to distract me from laying laminate in a bedroom this weekend

 

[Eric the meek]

Yes, the demographics make sense and is a key driver. I was thinking about it while looking at the wiki census graphs, then Zeihan's video brought it together very nicely.
There's some irony that Russia want to use the current younger men of fighting age to expand their borders.. and they've also succeeded in driving possibly millions of them out of the country to avoid the draft.
You've sent me another video to distract me from laying laminate in a bedroom this weekend lways

Always happy to take the blame for the delay in any DIY jobs. But I promise not to send you another video for a few days. There's a packed programme of football today and our matchday is tomorrow. That laminate won't lay itself. First world problems.

Back in the third world, I sense that things are happening in Russia. Even if it is wishful thinking on my part, things are at best looking like a slow burn on several fronts - the declining economic outlook, a demographic timebomb, ethnic unrest, Ukraine refusing to roll over, vowing to fight on and carrying out operations deep inside Russia. Without wishing to overstate it, we might, - might - be looking at the beginning of the break up of the Russian Federation. Konstantin Samoilov indicated much the same thing.

Even if it isn't, it is still day 647 of Putin's 3 day special military operation. Every single day it continues, Russia gets weaker.

 

[raymondo]

Always happy to take the blame for the delay in any DIY jobs. But I promise not to send you another video for a few days. There's a packed programme of football today and our matchday is tomorrow. That laminate won't lay itself. First world problems.

Back in the third world, I sense that things are happening in Russia. Even if it is wishful thinking on my part, things are at best looking like a slow burn on several fronts - the declining economic outlook, a demographic timebomb, ethnic unrest, Ukraine refusing to roll over, vowing to fight on and carrying out operations deep inside Russia. Without wishing to overstate it, we might, - might - be looking at the beginning of the break up of the Russian Federation. Konstantin Samoilov indicated much the same thing.

Even if it isn't, it is still day 647 of Putin's 3 day special military operation. Every single day it continues, Russia gets weaker.

Yep, yep and yep. Ukraine, and, importantly, it's allies need to hang on in there. Russia is creaking on many fronts, camouflaged only by bravado and threats.

 

[essbee1]

Yep, yep and yep. Ukraine, and, importantly, it's allies need to hang on in there. Russia is creaking on many fronts, camouflaged only by bravado and threats.

And when the house of russian cards goes, it will go very, very quickly.

 

[Eric the meek]

Another day, and more firefighting from the Kremlin.

'Russia trying to quell dissent from soldiers' wives with money and online attacks, says UK'

Russian authorities are attempting to quell dissent from the wives of soldiers deployed in Ukraine, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said.

The MoD said in its daily intelligence briefing that some were being paid off while others have been discredited online.

It comes after protests from soldiers’ wives in November.

The MoD said:

Research by independent Russia media outlets and comments by protesting wives themselves suggest that, in recent weeks, the authorities have likely offered increased cash payments to families in return for them refraining from protest.
On 27 November 2023, one prominent online group for soldiers’ wives published a manifesto against ‘indefinite mobilisation’. On around 31 November 2023, the group was pinned with a ‘fake’ warning label – likely at the instigation of pro-Kremlin actors.
The authorities are likely particularly sensitive to any protests related to those citizens mobilised in September 2022, who have now been at the front line for over a year.

Russia-Ukraine war: Kremlin trying to quell dissent from soldiers’ wives with money and online attacks, says UK – as it happened

UK says move by Russia comes after a number of soldiers’ wives were involved in protests

www.theguardian.com