[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

It was worth us sending those Storm Shadows then

For sure... Ukraine don't even have to fire that many...just a few at carefully chosen targets to show what can be done.

 

[Nobby]

Well, it led the 6am news bulletin of the Today programme. Maybe the BBC isn't as monolithic as you claim. Journalists/broadcasters have different requirements for verification, I think that's a good thing. I'm less concerned about who breaks news first, although have to accept that it's a key criteria for many these days.

Yes it's a very good thing that there is verification
But this news was out there on other established and trusted news outlets around 4:30am.
Hit the BBC website at after 6:30am

I used to totally rely on the BBC News website.
Now it is always the last to report "news", in whatever form from whatever source.
Hence the fact that some on here believed this could all be fake as the BBC were not reporting it.
The BBC has fallen apart in the last few years - of course, not helped by all the snidy threats from the scrunty bunch, Johnson, Mad Nad and all.

 

[Eric the meek]

Ukraine should try to blow the Kerch bridge now, no? The Russians need to feel the fear more.
I read on one of the feeds this morning that the flooding would stop Ukraine's attempts to retake Crimea for a year...?? I'm not sure I believe that...some reliable military analysis needed.
Ukraine may still have accessible routes south either through Melitopol or to the east of there. I don't know enough... I'm just guessing.

My approach would be to take the time to consider and evaluate the implications first.

The floods will be dramatic, but once the water has passed through, the land will recover, some of it within days.

The blowing up of the dam, the move of the Black Sea fleet to ports in mainland Russia, and the blowing up of the road between Ukraine and Russia (to prevent further incursions or even an invasion...), are all signs that Russia is on the defensive. Ukraine has got right under their skin and got them on the run.

I would offer the suggestion that the Ukrainian pre-offensive mind games have been more successful than they could have imagined.
I'm not a military analyst, and maybe it is wishful thinking, but I sense that if it is played well, this has the potential to end the war with little further actual conflict.

 

[raymondo]

Here's another piece from the ISW. So, Kadyrov offers to defend a quiet area, to preserve his 'private' army. Lots of rival factions...:

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Chechen forces are ready to defend against raids in Belgorod Oblast, likely in part to keep his forces out of combat in Ukraine. Kadyrov claimed on June 5 that he has 70,000 Chechen servicemen serving in unspecified formations in the Russian military who could defend against the raids into Belgorod Oblast due to their extensive anti-terrorism training.

 

[raymondo]

My approach would be to take the time to consider and evaluate the implications first.

The floods will be dramatic, but once the water has passed through, the land will recover, some of it within days.

The blowing up of the dam, the move of the Black Sea fleet to ports in mainland Russia, and the blowing up of the road between Ukraine and Russia (to prevent further incursions or even an invasion...), are all signs that Russia is on the defensive. Ukraine has got right under their skin and got them on the run.

I would offer the suggestion that the Ukrainian pre-offensive mind games have been more successful than they could have imagined.
I'm not a military analyst, and maybe it is wishful thinking, but I sense that if it is played well, this has the potential to end the war with little further actual conflict.

Ukraine doing very well in the pre-counteroffensive information space . As you say, the fringes of flooded areas could recover quickly as summer heats up.

 

[Eric the meek]

Here's another piece from the ISW. So, Kadyrov offers to defend a quiet area, to preserve his 'private' army. Lots of rival factions...:

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Chechen forces are ready to defend against raids in Belgorod Oblast, likely in part to keep his forces out of combat in Ukraine. Kadyrov claimed on June 5 that he has 70,000 Chechen servicemen serving in unspecified formations in the Russian military who could defend against the raids into Belgorod Oblast due to their extensive anti-terrorism training.

Interesting. Belgorod seems to feature heavily in the list of Russian war worries. There was the war blogger telling us it is 'getting worse' in Belgorod, Prigozhin threatening to go and defend it against raids, and now Kadyrov is offering to get involved. Weren't the raids led by some right-wing Russian based in Ukraine?

 

[Igzilla]

My approach would be to take the time to consider and evaluate the implications first.

The floods will be dramatic, but once the water has passed through, the land will recover, some of it within days.

The blowing up of the dam, the move of the Black Sea fleet to ports in mainland Russia, and the blowing up of the road between Ukraine and Russia (to prevent further incursions or even an invasion...), are all signs that Russia is on the defensive. Ukraine has got right under their skin and got them on the run.

I would offer the suggestion that the Ukrainian pre-offensive mind games have been more successful than they could have imagined.
I'm not a military analyst, and maybe it is wishful thinking, but I sense that if it is played well, this has the potential to end the war with little further actual conflict.

 

[peterward]

It's clearly the actions of an army fearing Ukraine's counteroffensive.
Time to take out the Kerch bridge then?

This fella is doing the rounds, no idea if true or not.

 

[peterward]

I read that as well as the obvious risk of flooding to thousands, and the potential risk to the ZNPP, the water supply to Crimea is fed from the Kakhovka reservoir.

So Russia has deliberately compromised the water supply to its beloved Crimea.

It knows its going to lose Crimea. So it wants to make it as uninhabitable as it can for Ukrainians.

I think there is an element of that, like a jilted lover, "If I can't have you, I'll destroy you so nobody else can"

But as hard as it was Crimea already survived for years without water from the canal, and right now as the counter offensive starts, the bigger issue for the Russian fascist invaders are making it virtually impossible for Ukraine to cross + now that it is, they'll be able to divert some of the military previously on the left bank, further east to strengthen the much narrower corridor where Ukraine can attack.

 

[peterward]

I suppose all we know about the effect on the offensive at this stage is that Ukraine will have known this was very likely to happen and will have factored it in to their planning

It doesn't stop them getting to crimea via Zaporizhia/Melitopol but it halves the front size where they can cross.

It's of massive benefit to the Russian fascists.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

It doesn't stop them getting to crimea via Zaporizhia/Melitopol but it halves the front size where they can cross.

It's of massive benefit to the Russian fascists.

You might be right, but when the flooded soil does dry out, any Russian defences and many natural defences will have been washed away.

All is not lost

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

The other unknown is what effect this will have on international relations. Those countries split on more arms to Ukraine on wavering on sanctions have another reason to stand with Ukraine.

Russia's pariah status is becoming ever and ever deeper

 

[Nobby]

My approach would be to take the time to consider and evaluate the implications first.

The floods will be dramatic, but once the water has passed through, the land will recover, some of it within days.

The blowing up of the dam, the move of the Black Sea fleet to ports in mainland Russia, and the blowing up of the road between Ukraine and Russia (to prevent further incursions or even an invasion...), are all signs that Russia is on the defensive. Ukraine has got right under their skin and got them on the run.

I would offer the suggestion that the Ukrainian pre-offensive mind games have been more successful than they could have imagined.
I'm not a military analyst, and maybe it is wishful thinking, but I sense that if it is played well, this has the potential to end the war with little further actual conflict.

The land might recover but what are people supposed to drink?

 

[GT49er]

Yes it's a very good thing that there is verification
But this news was out there on other established and trusted news outlets around 4:30am.
Hit the BBC website at after 6:30am

I used to totally rely on the BBC News website.
Now it is always the last to report "news", in whatever form from whatever source.
Hence the fact that some on here believed this could all be fake as the BBC were not reporting it.
The BBC has fallen apart in the last few years - of course, not helped by all the snidy threats from the scrunty bunch, Johnson, Mad Nad and all.

What, exactly, is the benefit - or need - to you to get the news two hours earlier? How, precisely, does that improve anything practically?

 

[peterward]

Not sure why unavailable, when it's there on twitter?

 

[Insel affe]

I am thinking there are more sinister reasons for flooding areas that are currently occupied by Russian forces.
To wash away the dead and cover up atrocities, by claiming they died by flood damage etc.
We all know they are indiscriminately murdering everyone left, children, women, young, old.

Disgusting behaviour in a so called modern age, there are going to be some very, very grim discoveries when this is over.

 

[raymondo]

Thanks for the details

 

[raymondo]

It doesn't stop them getting to crimea via Zaporizhia/Melitopol but it halves the front size where they can cross.

It's of massive benefit to the Russian fascists.

True, but presumably Ukraine can now also divert some troops from the right (west) bank of the Dnieper to locations now better suited for counteroffensive?

 

[peterward]

I am thinking there are more sinister reasons for flooding areas that are currently occupied by Russian forces.
To wash away the dead and cover up atrocities, by claiming they died by flood damage etc.
We all know they are indiscriminately murdering everyone left, children, women, young, old.

Disgusting behaviour in a so called modern age, there are going to be some very, very grim discoveries when this is over.

I personally believe its to stop/slow down advance towards Crimea and it also takes away Ukraines ability to decide if/where to attack across half of the previous southern front line.

Now the Russians have pigeon holed Ukraine to only east of Zaporizhia and can reinforce that area with previous troops from the left bank (now flooded)

 

[raymondo]

Here's a nod in favour of at least some fact checking before publication.
The Sky news summary on my Alexa just now stated confidently that:
" Iran's first developed hypersonic missile can avoid all air defence systems and is capable of travelling at FIVE TIMES THE SPEED of LIGHT"