[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

RAF pilots will not be flying sorties over Ukraine. I can 100% guarantee that.

They don't need to.

Without wishing to appear complacent, everything is going quite well. The war has been going on for nearly a year, and Russia still only occupies barely 20% of Ukraine.

In that time, Russia has lost friends, influence, money, arms, troops, morale, a large part of its war chest, trading partners, and as a result of sanctions, much of its economy. NATO is also expanding, the polar opposite of Putin's initial aim. Russia is much weaker and much more isolated than when it began the war. The future of Russia looks extraordinarily bleak.

The west is helping Ukraine win the war, but only slowly. This costs Russia, lessens any risk for the west, and steadily reduces the ability of Russia to repeat its adventure in the foreseeable future.

The combined forces of western democracies are not going to let Russia win. But are they going for full regime change in Moscow? IMO that is very likely. Always unstated of course, but very likely.

 

[scoobiewhite]

Before some conjecture I'd like to be clear that I am 100% behind Ukraine, Europe and 'The West' with regards to the war. Putin is a modern day despot who justifies his personal mission to recreate the Russian Empire using exactly the same tactics as a certain German fellow with a toothbrush moustache.

Im also a keen history enthusiast and can empathise with a nation that lost 26 million people in the last major European/World conflict. Thats roughly 26 people for every 1 lost by the UK, France and the US combined. Putin has tapped into this historic sacrifice to win hearts and minds at home and so we shouldn't blame individual Russians for buying into his propaganda.

Now for the conjecture (which could be read as pro/anti Russia, hence my clarification)

It feels to me like the provision of close range defensive weapons (NLAW etc.), followed by the provision of longer range defensive weapons (HIMARS etc.), followed by the provision of close range offensive weapons (Challengers, Abrams and Leopards), followed by the seemingly inevitable provision of fighter jets and long range missiles has been pre-determined for a long time.

I find it quite easy to believe that there have been meetings at which the agreement has been 'look, we cant just give you these weapons all at once, as it would be seen as too overtly provocative. However, we could drip feed you all these arms, as a result of your continuous pleas, if we could be seen to be reluctant to escalate the situation. With that in mind, lets work together to design a strategy of gradual escalation over 12-18 months. What we need you to do is keep up the global media campaign, write some historic speeches and then we can always be seen to be the good guys supporting Ukraine and democracy in its hour of need.

I have no issue with this approach, its probably the best from a political standpoint. But it does make me feel even more like a citizen passenger in geo-political events.

Theres a part of me (the same part that would lose a game of poker to the lizard 100 times out of a 100) that would rather we just met fire with fire, called the nutters bluff and went all in on supporting Ukraine.

Oh dear, Im waffling....I think this post started well, drifted in the middle and is in danger of ranting at the end!

Im sure I had a point at the beginning

 

[The Clamp]

Before some conjecture I'd like to be clear that I am 100% behind Ukraine, Europe and 'The West' with regards to the war. Putin is a modern day despot who justifies his personal mission to recreate the Russian Empire using exactly the same tactics as a certain German fellow with a toothbrush moustache.

Im also a keen history enthusiast and can empathise with a nation that lost 26 million people in the last major European/World conflict. Thats roughly 26 people for every 1 lost by the UK, France and the US combined. Putin has tapped into this historic sacrifice to win hearts and minds at home and so we shouldn't blame individual Russians for buying into his propaganda.

Now for the conjecture (which could be read as pro/anti Russia, hence my clarification)

It feels to me like the provision of close range defensive weapons (NLAW etc.), followed by the provision of longer range defensive weapons (HIMARS etc.), followed by the provision of close range offensive weapons (Challengers, Abrams and Leopards), followed by the seemingly inevitable provision of fighter jets and long range missiles has been pre-determined for a long time.

I find it quite easy to believe that there have been meetings at which the agreement has been 'look, we cant just give you these weapons all at once, as it would be seen as too overtly provocative. However, we could drip feed you all these arms, as a result of your continuous pleas, if we could be seen to be reluctant to escalate the situation. With that in mind, lets work together to design a strategy of gradual escalation over 12-18 months. What we need you to do is keep up the global media campaign, write some historic speeches and then we can always be seen to be the good guys supporting Ukraine and democracy in its hour of need.

I have no issue with this approach, its probably the best from a political standpoint. But it does make me feel even more like a citizen passenger in geo-political events.

Theres a part of me (the same part that would lose a game of poker to the lizard 100 times out of a 100) that would rather we just met fire with fire, called the nutters bluff and went all in on supporting Ukraine.

Oh dear, Im waffling....I think this post started well, drifted in the middle and is in danger of ranting at the end!

Im sure I had a point at the beginning

I very much agree with you. These requests aren’t being made or met ad-hoc. The strategy will have been planned for months.

 

[Eric the meek]

I very much agree with you. These requests aren’t being made or met ad-hoc. The strategy will have been planned for months.

Exactly. It's planning ahead. Forward guidance. Setting the scene. It's telling Russia what may happen a year or two down the road. Or may not. Who can tell?

Get them to spend a chunk of their war chest on fighter planes. Which they may or may not need, and may or may not turn out to be a waste of money. All part of the wider plan to torment Russia.

My tip? The backdrop to the following was a 40% increase in the budget for internal security, announced by the Kremlin. Putin is expecting unrest. Keep an eye on the Russian regions. Those disparate regions have been kept under control by an iron fist for decades. How will Moscow continue to rule them without the ability to reach those distant regions? Due to sanctions, spare parts for planes and trains are becoming increasingly hard to source. Once a weakness or power vacuum in Moscow is perceived in the regions, local warlords, oppressed for generations and now forced to send their sons to fight Putin's war, will fancy their chances and will organise.

 

[portlock seagull]

Before some conjecture I'd like to be clear that I am 100% behind Ukraine, Europe and 'The West' with regards to the war. Putin is a modern day despot who justifies his personal mission to recreate the Russian Empire using exactly the same tactics as a certain German fellow with a toothbrush moustache.

Im also a keen history enthusiast and can empathise with a nation that lost 26 million people in the last major European/World conflict. Thats roughly 26 people for every 1 lost by the UK, France and the US combined. Putin has tapped into this historic sacrifice to win hearts and minds at home and so we shouldn't blame individual Russians for buying into his propaganda.

Now for the conjecture (which could be read as pro/anti Russia, hence my clarification)

It feels to me like the provision of close range defensive weapons (NLAW etc.), followed by the provision of longer range defensive weapons (HIMARS etc.), followed by the provision of close range offensive weapons (Challengers, Abrams and Leopards), followed by the seemingly inevitable provision of fighter jets and long range missiles has been pre-determined for a long time.

I find it quite easy to believe that there have been meetings at which the agreement has been 'look, we cant just give you these weapons all at once, as it would be seen as too overtly provocative. However, we could drip feed you all these arms, as a result of your continuous pleas, if we could be seen to be reluctant to escalate the situation. With that in mind, lets work together to design a strategy of gradual escalation over 12-18 months. What we need you to do is keep up the global media campaign, write some historic speeches and then we can always be seen to be the good guys supporting Ukraine and democracy in its hour of need.

I have no issue with this approach, its probably the best from a political standpoint. But it does make me feel even more like a citizen passenger in geo-political events.

Theres a part of me (the same part that would lose a game of poker to the lizard 100 times out of a 100) that would rather we just met fire with fire, called the nutters bluff and went all in on supporting Ukraine.

Oh dear, Im waffling....I think this post started well, drifted in the middle and is in danger of ranting at the end!

Im sure I had a point at the beginning

I don’t know if the 26million can really be cited as part of any ‘empathetic defence’ of Putin’s mindset and actions simply because many of those were self inflicted and/or rivalled by other historical events equally calamitous and self inflicted. Bottom line is Russia is vast, it’s the very meaning of the name as you probably know, and life has always been cheap in eyes of its people and rulers. As Stalin himself reportedly said, one death is a tragedy. A million is a statistic. Anyway, I’m waffling too

 

[US Seagull]

According to the news today, it will take a year to train candidates to pilot Apaches and a couple of years to pilot a fighter jet. They are currently training them on Apache gunships.

I cannot see any scenario, anytime soon, in which RAF pilots fly over Ukraine to engage the Russian army.

I suspect those training times are ideal peace-time training. In the case of a war, I'm pretty sure they'll push them though quicker than that. The rest will be made up with "on-the-job" training. On a job that may get you killed.

But I do wonder if all these different weapons systems coming from lots of different sources doesn't become counter-productive at some point because it just becomes a logistic headache to train on them and to maintain them.

 

[portlock seagull]

I suspect those training times are ideal peace-time training. In the case of a war, I'm pretty sure they'll push them though quicker than that. The rest will be made up with "on-the-job" training. On a job that may get you killed.

But I do wonder if all these different weapons systems coming from lots of different sources doesn't become counter-productive at some point because it just becomes a logistic headache to train on them and to maintain them.

This. 8hrs flying in spits and hurricanes and into the Battle of Britain you went…War accelerates everything.

 

[driddles]

I suspect those training times are ideal peace-time training. In the case of a war, I'm pretty sure they'll push them though quicker than that. The rest will be made up with "on-the-job" training. On a job that may get you killed.

I think so too. The fighter jet pilots will already be fighter jet pilots, they'll be upgrading and needing training but they'll be highly motivated and not starting from zero. Same thing for the tank commanders.

 

[Albion in the north]

Before some conjecture I'd like to be clear that I am 100% behind Ukraine, Europe and 'The West' with regards to the war. Putin is a modern day despot who justifies his personal mission to recreate the Russian Empire using exactly the same tactics as a certain German fellow with a toothbrush moustache.

Im also a keen history enthusiast and can empathise with a nation that lost 26 million people in the last major European/World conflict. Thats roughly 26 people for every 1 lost by the UK, France and the US combined. Putin has tapped into this historic sacrifice to win hearts and minds at home and so we shouldn't blame individual Russians for buying into his propaganda.

Now for the conjecture (which could be read as pro/anti Russia, hence my clarification)

It feels to me like the provision of close range defensive weapons (NLAW etc.), followed by the provision of longer range defensive weapons (HIMARS etc.), followed by the provision of close range offensive weapons (Challengers, Abrams and Leopards), followed by the seemingly inevitable provision of fighter jets and long range missiles has been pre-determined for a long time.

I find it quite easy to believe that there have been meetings at which the agreement has been 'look, we cant just give you these weapons all at once, as it would be seen as too overtly provocative. However, we could drip feed you all these arms, as a result of your continuous pleas, if we could be seen to be reluctant to escalate the situation. With that in mind, lets work together to design a strategy of gradual escalation over 12-18 months. What we need you to do is keep up the global media campaign, write some historic speeches and then we can always be seen to be the good guys supporting Ukraine and democracy in its hour of need.

I have no issue with this approach, its probably the best from a political standpoint. But it does make me feel even more like a citizen passenger in geo-political events.

Theres a part of me (the same part that would lose a game of poker to the lizard 100 times out of a 100) that would rather we just met fire with fire, called the nutters bluff and went all in on supporting Ukraine.

Oh dear, Im waffling....I think this post started well, drifted in the middle and is in danger of ranting at the end!

Im sure I had a point at the beginning

Although a sceptic could think that the West has been drip feeding the arms to Ukraine, as the longer the war goes on, the more Russia will be on its knees at the end.

 

[Weststander]

If and when the alleged vast Russian second offensive comes, hyperbolic shite stirrers such as Piers Morgan are almost hoping for it, I hope that a year wiser and 100% ready Ukraine have an array of western technologies and specialist hardware to destroy armour and aircraft in droves.

The French ‘Bonus’ artillery shell, Javelins, Stingers, NLAW, Carl Gustav M4, Archer system, HIMARS.

Making life a living hell for Russians.

 

[jcdenton08]

Volodymyr Zelensky makes history with speech to UK Parliament

The Ukrainian president's speech to Westminster Hall makes a deep impression on MPs.

www.bbc.co.uk

Just give him what he needs to defend his country’s sovereignty?

Fantastic orator.

 

[jcdenton08]

If Putin had known it would cost him 130,000+ soldiers/citizens, 3000+ tanks, his Black Sea fleet flag ship, his western oil and gas market etc. etc. he may well not have blundered so badly.

Oh well. He'll be adding his life to that long list eventually.

Dragged through the streets. I can see it in my mind’s eye. The BBC disclaimer; “contains shocking images which some viewers may find distressing… and most will find cathartic”

 

[NooBHA]

They don't need to.

Without wishing to appear complacent, everything is going quite well. The war has been going on for nearly a year, and Russia still only occupies barely 20% of Ukraine.

In that time, Russia has lost friends, influence, money, arms, troops, morale, a large part of its war chest, trading partners, and as a result of sanctions, much of its economy. NATO is also expanding, the polar opposite of Putin's initial aim. Russia is much weaker and much more isolated than when it began the war. The future of Russia looks extraordinarily bleak.

The west is helping Ukraine win the war, but only slowly. This costs Russia, lessens any risk for the west, and steadily reduces the ability of Russia to repeat its adventure in the foreseeable future.

The combined forces of western democracies are not going to let Russia win. But are they going for full regime change in Moscow? IMO that is very likely. Always unstated of course, but very likely.

I don't think it's going nicely at all. Thousands have died on both sides and more will die soon because both sides are going on offensives in different regions within Ukraine.

If the Collective West had supplied more weapons and defensive systems from the outset then the Ukrainians would already be trained up in these systems by now. During this mass mobilisation the Ukrainians could have pushed the Russians out altogether by now and then been able to dig in and defend from their borders. Less troops actually die when in defensive positions. Not to mention the War Rimes that might have been avoided along with the forced conscription of Pro Ukrainians in Donbass and Lugansk regions.

I am aware that hindsight is a wonderful tool but it truly saddens me the loss of life to date with no end in sight and major offensives set to play it in the coming months where even more will be slaghtered.

 

[jcdenton08]

I don't think it's going nicely at all. Thousands have died on both sides and more will die soon because both sides are going on offensives in different regions within Ukraine.

If the Collective West had supplied more weapons and defensive systems from the outset then the Ukrainians would already be trained up in these systems by now. During this mass mobilisation the Ukrainians could have pushed the Russians out altogether by now and then been able to dig in and defend from their borders. Less troops actually die when in defensive positions. Not to mention the War Rimes that might have been avoided along with the forced conscription of Pro Ukrainians in Donbass and Lugansk regions.

I am aware that hindsight is a wonderful tool but it truly saddens me the loss of life to date with no end in sight and major offensives set to play it in the coming months where even more will be slaghtered.

No amount of Western aid would’ve ended the war quickly and without huge loss of life. Russia were going to invade regardless - intelligence from all sides knew this for years.

This is on one person - Putin.

 

[NooBHA]

No amount of Western aid would’ve ended the war quickly and without huge loss of life. Russia were going to invade regardless - intelligence from all sides knew this for years.

This is on one person - Putin.

I realise it wouldn't end it quickly but if you stop them getting as big a foothold for as long as they have done then some of the war crimes may have been avoided.

I concur. Only Putin is to blame.

There is a really funny post by Serhy Sternenko in his YouTube channel. You should watch it and translate it right from the start .

He talks about a Russian soldier who called for Genocide of Ukrainians. Apparently he was executed by his own Wagner troops. Shot in the head. He was in hospital and they were saying that he might be a vegetable for life if he recovers .

Sternenko began his report today with

" Greetings friends. Today there is good news and bad news. The bad news is. The Russian Soldier who called for the Genocide of Ukrainians sadly is not going to be a vegetable for life. The good news is. He died

 

[jcdenton08]

I realise it wouldn't end it quickly but if you stop them getting as big a foothold for as long as they have done then some of the war crimes may have been avoided.

I concur. Only Putin is to blame.

There is a really funny post by Serhy Sternenko in his YouTube channel. You should watch it and translate it right from the start .

He talks about a Russian soldier who called for Genocide of Ukrainians. Apparently he was executed by his own Wagner troops. Shot in the head. He was in hospital and they were saying that he might be a vegetable for life if he recovers .

Sternenko began his report today with

" Greetings friends. Today there is good news and bad news. The bad news is. The Russian Soldier who called for the Genocide of Ukrainians sadly is not going to be a vegetable for life. The good news is. He died

I’ll check it out - just watching Zelensky’s speech in full having only seen clips before now. A really wonderful speaker and you can actually feel sincerity - a rare enough thing for a speech in Parliament.

In my opinion the war crimes were inevitable as was a long war of attrition. The only people who didn’t seem to foresee this was Russian high command.

 

[NooBHA]

I’ll check it out - just watching Zelensky’s speech in full having only seen clips before now. A really wonderful speaker and you can actually feel sincerity - a rare enough thing for a speech in Parliament.

In my opinion the war crimes were inevitable as was a long war of attrition. The only people who didn’t seem to foresee this was Russian high command.

Russian high command don't care about it's people. They keep them poor and incumbered with debts in order just to be able to eat. This makes them slaves to the offer of money just to live. So much so that their lives as they are, aren't worth living so they don't see dying as a big loss

 

[Eric the meek]

I don't think it's going nicely at all. Thousands have died on both sides and more will die soon because both sides are going on offensives in different regions within Ukraine.

If the Collective West had supplied more weapons and defensive systems from the outset then the Ukrainians would already be trained up in these systems by now. During this mass mobilisation the Ukrainians could have pushed the Russians out altogether by now and then been able to dig in and defend from their borders. Less troops actually die when in defensive positions. Not to mention the War Rimes that might have been avoided along with the forced conscription of Pro Ukrainians in Donbass and Lugansk regions.

I am aware that hindsight is a wonderful tool but it truly saddens me the loss of life to date with no end in sight and major offensives set to play it in the coming months where even more will be slaghtered.

I didn't say it was going nicely.

Why didn't you use the exact words I used? What I actually said was 'Everything is going quite well'.

How difficult would it have been to copy and paste that, rather than disagree with something I didn't actually say?

 

[seagullwedgee]

I watched the Zelensky address in Westminster Hall live on TV, and at the end I had tears streaming down my face. He is an incredibly brave and principled man, leading an incredibly resolute nation of armed forces and citizens. It was a brilliant speech, he is a brilliant man. It is just so sickening that a modern day Hitler is trying everything to destroy him and his nation of peace loving people. Forza Ukrenja.

 

[SeagullinExile]

According to the news today, it will take a year to train candidates to pilot Apaches and a couple of years to pilot a fighter jet. They are currently training them on Apache gunships.

I cannot see any scenario, anytime soon, in which RAF pilots fly over Ukraine to engage the Russian army.

There may well be foreign ‘Volunteers’ ready to enlist in the Ukrainian Air Force.