[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Zeberdi]

Slightly confused, can anyone explain why a Ukrainian anti-missile defence system would be pointing at Poland 4 miles in from the Ukrainian border? If the Ukranians were firing at an incoming, clearly the incoming wasn’t shot down so what direction was the ‘incoming’ coming from? If the incoming overshot the Ukranian/Polish border, where did it come down? Why would Ukraine risk firing an anti-missile over Polish territory?

Ukraine war: Missile strike appears to be 'unfortunate accident', Poland's president says

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has also spoken about the incident and says whatever the outcome of the investigation into the blast, Russia "bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine".

news.sky.com

Any chance NATO playing it down so they don’t have to deal with the Article 5 ‘Red Line’ ?

 

[crookie]

Slightly confused, can anyone explain why a Ukrainian anti-missile defence system would be pointing at Poland 4 miles in from the Ukrainian border? If the Ukranians were firing at an incoming, clearly the incoming wasn’t shot down so what direction was the ‘incoming’ coming from? If the incoming overshot the Ukranian/Polish border, where did it come down? Why would Ukraine risk firing an anti-missile over Polish territory?

Ukraine war: Missile strike appears to be 'unfortunate accident', Poland's president says

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has also spoken about the incident and says whatever the outcome of the investigation into the blast, Russia "bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine".

news.sky.com

Any chance NATO playing it down so they don’t have to deal with the Article 5 ‘Red Line’ ?

I read that there is a power station just a few miles from the border, close to where the missile landed, so presumably it was there to defend missile attacks on that. Possibly malfunctioned ? Not sure NATO is likely to downplay it if it was a Russian missile, even if it wasn't a deliberate strike on Poland. I assume, maybe wrongly that the trajectory of it could be tracked

 

[sparkie]

Putin can't win now in Ukraine.

He can't even freeze the conflict and 'draw'.

His one hope of being rescued by the US midterm elections has gone up in smoke.

He needs a "best defeat possible" exit strategy now.

What's his plan ?

 

[chickens]

Putin can't win now in Ukraine.

He can't even freeze the conflict and 'draw'.

His one hope of being rescued by the US midterm elections has gone up in smoke.

He needs a "best defeat possible" exit strategy now.

What's his plan ?

I believe (to paraphrase) it’s to carry on fighting until everyone’s dead except Putin, Mrs Putin, and their pet tortoise, Alan.

 

[Eric the meek]

There's nothing like having a positive mental attitude.

'Russia 'digging trenches 40 miles behind front line in fear of Ukraine breaking through'

Ukraine-Russia war latest: Russia 'digging trenches 40 miles behind frontline' as it prioritises defence

Russia is digging trenches nearly 40 miles behind the front line as it works to bolster its defences amid a struggle in Ukraine, according to the UK Ministry of Defence.

www.telegraph.co.uk

So what the Russians are saying to their troops on their current front lines, is that they expect them to fail.

 

[The Fifth Column]

Slightly confused, can anyone explain why a Ukrainian anti-missile defence system would be pointing at Poland 4 miles in from the Ukrainian border? If the Ukranians were firing at an incoming, clearly the incoming wasn’t shot down so what direction was the ‘incoming’ coming from? If the incoming overshot the Ukranian/Polish border, where did it come down? Why would Ukraine risk firing an anti-missile over Polish territory?

Ukraine war: Missile strike appears to be 'unfortunate accident', Poland's president says

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has also spoken about the incident and says whatever the outcome of the investigation into the blast, Russia "bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine".

news.sky.com

Any chance NATO playing it down so they don’t have to deal with the Article 5 ‘Red Line’ ?

An anti-aircraft battery wouldn't necessarily be pointed in any particular direction, it depends on the type of battery. Most are mobile and able to be setup so they can be oriented in the direction of a likely attack, others are capable of tracking and moving as it acquires a target. There are many reasons why a Ukrainian missile could end up in Poland with malfunction being the most likely cause. It may have launched and lost its navigational guidance system and gone 'rogue' in which case it could end up anywhere once it either ran out of fuel or impacted the ground in error, it may have tracked a target for a period of time that was flying in that direction and then lost the tracking and ended up in Poland that way or it may have tracked a malfunctioning Russian missile and intercepted it above Poland with only partial success causing the Russian missile to land in Poland, there are lots of different viable scenarios. None of it is helped by the fact that the Ukrainians and Russians are using the same S-300 Surface to air missile systems in some places and the Russians are so short of precision missile systems that they have re-purposed some of their S-300s to operate in the Air to Surface role which is not what they were designed for and are likely not very good or accurate.

 

[bhafc99]

I believe (to paraphrase) it’s to carry on fighting until everyone’s dead except Putin, Mrs Putin, and their pet tortoise, Alan.

I’ve just heard that Alan’s brand new speedboat unexpectedly blew up this afternoon, tragically killing him. These things do happen, you know. Contrary to what some might say, there’s no sinister connection to the recent mysterious deaths of almost all Russia’s ruling elite. Absolutely not. Pure accidents, all of them.

 

[cjd]

I’ve just heard that Alan’s brand new speedboat unexpectedly blew up this afternoon, tragically killing him. These things do happen, you know. Contrary to what some might say, there’s no sinister connection to the recent mysterious deaths of almost all Russia’s ruling elite. Absolutely not. Pure accidents, all of them.

Oh god...why poor Alan...?


WHY....!!!!!

What had Alan ever done to us......I'm devastated.

 

[Nobby]

Oh god...why poor Alan...?


WHY....!!!!!

What had Alan ever done to us......I'm devastated.

He was ex KGB - nuff said

 

[GT49er]

Oh god...why poor Alan...?


WHY....!!!!!

What had Alan ever done to us......I'm devastated.

He was expendable, and the army needed all the shells it could get.

 

[Sirnormangall]

An anti-aircraft battery wouldn't necessarily be pointed in any particular direction, it depends on the type of battery. Most are mobile and able to be setup so they can be oriented in the direction of a likely attack, others are capable of tracking and moving as it acquires a target. There are many reasons why a Ukrainian missile could end up in Poland with malfunction being the most likely cause. It may have launched and lost its navigational guidance system and gone 'rogue' in which case it could end up anywhere once it either ran out of fuel or impacted the ground in error, it may have tracked a target for a period of time that was flying in that direction and then lost the tracking and ended up in Poland that way or it may have tracked a malfunctioning Russian missile and intercepted it above Poland with only partial success causing the Russian missile to land in Poland, there are lots of different viable scenarios. None of it is helped by the fact that the Ukrainians and Russians are using the same S-300 Surface to air missile systems in some places and the Russians are so short of precision missile systems that they have re-purposed some of their S-300s to operate in the Air to Surface role which is not what they were designed for and are likely not very good or accurate.

Wonder if it’s possible that the Russian missile was fired from Belarus - in which case the Ukrainians would have been firing to the north and therefore closer to Poland.

 

[fly high]

Wonder if it’s possible that the Russian missile was fired from Belarus - in which case the Ukrainians would have been firing to the north and therefore closer to Poland.

Wasn't the original report that it came from Belarus?

 

[Zeberdi]

…There are many reasons why a Ukrainian missile could end up in Poland …

Thanks for a great explanation!

 

[Eric the meek]

Wasn't the original report that it came from Belarus?

Without seeing the original report, I wondered if it had come from Belarus. The reason was what the Russian response - didn't - say.

Russia's response - it was a provocation designed to escalate, but it didn't say where the missiles had come from. I thought that was telling. Why would they say it was a provocation, but specifically NOT name Ukraine?
NATO response - a 'Russian-made' missile (singular), an 'unfortunate incident', and didn't name the culprit.
Ukraine response - it wasn't a Ukrainian missile.

Any or all of those responses may be accurate or inaccurate. But if they are all accurate, then a theory that it came from Belarus, and perhaps was intended to draw NATO into the conflict, becomes plausible....

And then it gets just a little bit more plausible, when you see this and put two and two together:

'Russia 'secretly moves 100 missiles back from Belarus, sparking fears he plans large-scale attack in Ukraine' - Daily Mail.

Russia 'secretly moves 100 missiles back from Belarus'

Analysts have said the movement of the S-300 and S-400 missiles is either a sign of Russia is anticipating Ukrainian retaliation, or is plotting to deploy a dirty bomb in the country.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Caveat - I might be wrong!

 

[The Fifth Column]

Thanks for a great explanation!

No problem, anti-missile stuff was very much my thing way back in my Royal Navy days!

 

[The Andy Naylor Fan Club]

Ooooh, A massive gas pipeline explosion near St Petersburg. I wonder if it was just an accident?

 

[sparkie]

Slightly confused, can anyone explain why a Ukrainian anti-missile defence system would be pointing at Poland 4 miles in from the Ukrainian border? If the Ukranians were firing at an incoming, clearly the incoming wasn’t shot down so what direction was the ‘incoming’ coming from? If the incoming overshot the Ukranian/Polish border, where did it come down? Why would Ukraine risk firing an anti-missile over Polish territory?

Ukraine war: Missile strike appears to be 'unfortunate accident', Poland's president says

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has also spoken about the incident and says whatever the outcome of the investigation into the blast, Russia "bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine".

news.sky.com

Any chance NATO playing it down so they don’t have to deal with the Article 5 ‘Red Line’ ?

Yes. There is a very big chance they are playing it down or have given Russia "one last chance" via secret communication channels.

Anyway, this guy has a theory it was a Russian missile ( he waffles a bit at the beginning but eventually gets to the point ) :

 

[raymondo]

 

[danielson81]

Most of Moldova without power now.

Ukraine war: Zelensky denounces Russian 'terror' in UN address

The latest barrage of Russian missiles causes blackouts in much of Ukraine and Moldova.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[timbha]

Ukraine war: Zelensky denounces Russian 'terror' in UN address

The latest barrage of Russian missiles causes blackouts in much of Ukraine and Moldova.

www.bbc.co.uk

Is it really “most”?