[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Ways and means.

Strangle Russian forces in Crimea of resources, one by one take out hardware from afar or by drones, break the hearts of the genocidal invaders.

Parts of the UK media and the two Putin loving doomongers on nsc got Kherson city totally wrong. Predicting a Stalingrad-esque long winter with 10,000’s dying on both sides. Zelensky, his high command and overseas advisers are too cute … not suckered into that.

All these campaigns take time, an instant news age makes the impatient 2,000 miles away expect fast results. Ukrainians want their country back, they’re used to suffering in times past, they have national pride and patience on their side.

Good post.

The Ukrainians always seem to take everyone by surprise, ignoring/circumventing the accepted narrative. It's almost as if they are listening in to Russian comms (or someone else is, and letting them know). The news of the bridgehead, if correct, will come as a hammer blow to Russian troops, following so quickly after their withdrawal from Kherson. They may not even get the chance to use their nice new trenches they've just dug, before they are obliged to withdraw further.

 

[raymondo]

Crimea is essentially a fortress, a couple of land bridges a few kilometers wide. too important for Russia to keep Sevastopol, and less home advantage, its not feasible to take militarily. the end of this war will be resolved with Crimea remaining Russia.

Probably correct, but it would be a challenge for Russia if Ukraine cuts off the Crimean water supply in Kherson (80% of Crimean needs) and if the Kerch bridge keeps getting blown up somehow. I suspect you're right though, remains as part of a 'peace deal'...if there is such a thing with Russia.

 

[Weststander]

Probably correct, but it would be a challenge for Russia if Ukraine cuts off the Crimean water supply in Kherson (80% of Crimean needs) and if the Kerch bridge keeps getting blown up somehow. I suspect you're right though, remains as part of a 'peace deal'...if there is such a thing with Russia.

The peace deal idea started by Sky News today is very binary, Russia allowed to keep stolen lands.

I wonder if there’s a third way …. neutral, non-milarised territories policed by the UN or an agreed force?

 

[dejavuatbtn]

The peace deal idea started by Sky News today is very binary, Russia allowed to keep stolen lands.

I wonder if there’s a third way …. neutral, non-milarised territories policed by the UN or an agreed force?

Yes, give them a mile wide border or no man’s land. Anyone going in there gets excommunicate.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

The peace deal idea started by Sky News today is very binary, Russia allowed to keep stolen lands.

I wonder if there’s a third way …. neutral, non-milarised territories policed by the UN or an agreed force?

To me and I suspect Zelensky that's far less preferable to continue to smash Russia on the battlefield until they are out of the country.

 

[crookie]

The irony being if Putin hadn't launched this invasion, most would have probably accepted their de facto control over Crimea and the Donbas. Now they're in danger of losing all of that territory alongside a huge loss of life approx 100000 plus a massive amount of hardware, and the destruction of any units capable of large scale offensive capability. Alongside, with sanctions, a crippling of the economy. An unbelievably shocking strategic decision, that will set back Russia by decades.

 

[raymondo]

The peace deal idea started by Sky News today is very binary, Russia allowed to keep stolen lands.

I wonder if there’s a third way …. neutral, non-milarised territories policed by the UN or an agreed force?

Yes, I like that 3rd way...UN or another peacekeeper needs to be involved.
I wasn't specifically referencing the Sky News 'deal' idea... didn't like it at all, nor the timing of the discussion.
I could still see a slim part of the Donbas, or Crimea, being included in an eventual deal (not saying that's an ideal outcome for Ukraine at all). Certainly not the whole of Donbas.
If Russia were to keep Crimea, the threat of Ukraine turning off the water supply or dropping the Kerch bridge might be enough to encourage Russia to keep their side of the deal. (??).
Anyway, as you can probably judge, I'm possibly not a great negotiator or military strategist! Terrific news about Kherson though.

 

[vegster]

Crimea is essentially a fortress, a couple of land bridges a few kilometers wide. too important for Russia to keep Sevastopol, and less home advantage, its not feasible to take militarily. the end of this war will be resolved with Crimea remaining Russia.

Thanks to the Russian withdrawal huge swathes of Crimea are now in range of HIMARS ..Ukraine can take out the military infrastructure piece by piece and grind down Russian forces and their resolve. Ukraine will re-take Crimea.

 

[crookie]

Incredible really, when many thought the Kiev regime would fall within days

 

[Weststander]

Yes, I like that 3rd way...UN or another peacekeeper needs to be involved.
I wasn't specifically referencing the Sky News 'deal' idea... didn't like it at all, nor the timing of the discussion.
I could still see a slim part of the Donbas, or Crimea, being included in an eventual deal (not saying that's an ideal outcome for Ukraine at all). Certainly not the whole of Donbas.
If Russia were to keep Crimea, the threat of Ukraine turning off the water supply or dropping the Kerch bridge might be enough to encourage Russia to keep their side of the deal. (??).
Anyway, as you can probably judge, I'm possibly not a great negotiator or military strategist! Terrific news about Kherson though.

Ditto.

With no tangible evidence Sky were emphatic that the West were, in effect, about to tell Zelensky enough is enough.

The noise from Biden et al hasn’t suggested that one iota, to my knowledge.

 

[portslade seagull]

The irony being if Putin hadn't launched this invasion, most would have probably accepted their de facto control over Crimea and the Donbas. Now they're in danger of losing all of that territory alongside a huge loss of life approx 100000 plus a massive amount of hardware, and the destruction of any units capable of large scale offensive capability. Alongside, with sanctions, a crippling of the economy. An unbelievably shocking strategic decision, that will set back Russia by decades.

And hopefully crippling reparations to Ukraine as well for the rebuild.

 

[raymondo]

Ditto.

With no tangible evidence Sky were emphatic that the West were, in effect, about to tell Zelensky enough is enough.

The noise from Biden et al hasn’t suggested that one iota, to my knowledge.

Yes, I found the Sky report weird...as if they'd prepared it weeks ago and still decided to roll it out even though Kherson was being liberated .
And, yes, Biden publically continues to support Ukraine fully - I haven't read anything concrete to the contrary. He's been solid on this.

 

[sparkie]

The peace deal idea started by Sky News today is very binary, Russia allowed to keep stolen lands.

I wonder if there’s a third way …. neutral, non-milarised territories policed by the UN or an agreed force?

I'd have thought that the quid pro quo for Ukraine losing lands is for instant NATO membership for Ukraine otherwise the Kremlin will be back for another bite very soon.

 

[Sirnormangall]

The irony being if Putin hadn't launched this invasion, most would have probably accepted their de facto control over Crimea and the Donbas. Now they're in danger of losing all of that territory alongside a huge loss of life approx 100000 plus a massive amount of hardware, and the destruction of any units capable of large scale offensive capability. Alongside, with sanctions, a crippling of the economy. An unbelievably shocking strategic decision, that will set back Russia by decades.

I’d hope too, at some point, that the frozen Russian / Oligarch assets around the world are confiscated and used to rebuild Ukraine. Yes there has to be a peace deal, but there needs to be a deterrent to discourage the Russian b*stards behaving like this again……otherwise who’s next?

 

[Zeberdi]

I wonder if there’s a third way …. neutral, non-milarised territories policed by the UN or an agreed force?

I think there needs to be a new East West Axis of countries ( stretching from Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova ) who agree not to be members of NATO nor to subscribe to Putin’s imperialistic aspirations to rebuild the former USSR. An axis that can form an independent mutual alliance of economic and security interests in the region whilst having free trade partnerships with countries on either side of the axis.

Of course it’s all a pipe dream - Russia and her allies and the US and her allies will never stop fighting proxy wars in whatever poor bloody country holds the most strategic advantages for them, whether it be oil supplies, arms deals or geographical proximity to their nearest enemy.

 

[NooBHA]

Ways and means.

Strangle Russian forces in Crimea of resources, one by one take out hardware from afar or by drones, break the hearts of the genocidal invaders.

Parts of the UK media and the two Putin loving doomongers on nsc got Kherson city totally wrong. Predicting a Stalingrad-esque long winter with 10,000’s dying on both sides. Zelensky, his high command and overseas advisers are too cute … not suckered into that.

All these campaigns take time, an instant news age makes the impatient 2,000 miles away expect fast results. Ukrainians want their country back, they’re used to suffering in times past, they have national pride and patience on their side.

I agree 100% but the Ukrainians also know that Crimea does have a lot of Russian support amongst it's Residents. Consequently they may allow that to be established by a PROPER LEGITIMATE ELECTION.

After what Russians have done elsewhere the Ukrainians could potentially win an Election in Crimea now so I have a feeling that might be the compromise they eventually make once the Russians are kicked out of Donbass and Luhansk.

Alternatively give the Crimean autonomy and then let them forge relations on whatever way they choose gradually over the next 10 years or so. Russia doesn't really want Crimea. They just want the Ports because most other Russian Ports freeze over in Winter.


They deported a lot of the Tatars years ago and replaced them with ethnic Russians so it it feasible they could still win an election in Crimea

 

[Weststander]

I came across this fantastic piece. How Ukraine won the battle for Kyiv, faced with forces 10 to 15 times greater. The Russians were ‘allowed’ to get within 30 miles of the outskirts.

https://www.thayerleadership.com/blog/2022/the-untold-story-of-the-battle-for-kyiv

 

[beorhthelm]

I came across this fantastic piece. How Ukraine won the battle for Kyiv, faced with forces 10 to 15 times greater. The Russians were ‘allowed’ to get within 30 miles of the outskirts.

https://www.thayerleadership.com/blog/2022/the-untold-story-of-the-battle-for-kyiv

what stands out for me, which i've read elsewhere, is the transformative nature of western command structure. field commanders trained to act on own initative with whats in front of them. Russian's follow strict heirarchy, told to go down one road and dont change even when obvious they are exposed to ambush.

 

[portslade seagull]

Saw a video today with 5 Russian tanks driving behind each other along a road. The Ukrainians were monitoring via drone and relaying the info to hidden ground troops who then proceeded to take them all out with Nlaws,Stingers etc. All five were left total wrecks. That takes some balls

 

[Weststander]

what stands out for me, which i've read elsewhere, is the transformative nature of western command structure. field commanders trained to act on own initative with whats in front of them. Russian's follow strict heirarchy, told to go down one road and dont change even when obvious they are exposed to ambush.

Interesting that. Similar to the USSR's command economy.

Agility to act and true delegation has many advantages, militarily and otherwise.