[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Weststander]

If he thinks that's by holding fake referendums and calling it a day with his new empire, I trust Ukraine and the West will tell him where to stick it.

Putin would portray the illegal annexation of lands as a success. Any settlement must include a complete withdrawal.

But I wonder if first try to strangle Germany and Italy without gas for a complete winter, with rationed power to their industries.

 

[Eric the meek]

If he thinks that's by holding fake referendums and calling it a day with his new empire, I trust Ukraine and the West will tell him where to stick it.

Indeed. But there seems to be a complete and utter disconnnect between the real world, and what Russia / the Kremlin regard as acceptable or believable. It is as if Russia exists in its own parallel universe, as if their fake referendums are viewed as entirely reasonable by the party faithful and therefore the masses. Are the Russian public really this gullible? A lifetime of state TV would suggest they may be.

 

[Pondicherry]

To me the only long term satisfactory outcome with Crimea is a referendum. An actual one, not the sham poll that they ran last time.

It would have to be overseen by an agreed international body. It wouldn't be perfect, of course it wouldn't. But I can't see another way

The only long term solution is the restoration of all of Ukraine's borders to pre 2014 position, the removal of Putin's dictatorship and the establishment of democratic and accountable government in Russia. Then move onto China.

 

[sparkie]

Putin could well announce mobilisation today ready to send 100000 more conscripts to Ukraine with meagre rations, no winter kit, but at least with WW2 rifles.

He may well thunderously menace the world again with his schtick about nuclear weapons.

 

[Springal]

Interesting use of the word Cannonfodder by Putin - when it looks like exactly what the additional forces will be.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Putin could well announce mobilisation today ready to send 100000 more conscripts to Ukraine with meagre rations, no winter kit, but at least with WW2 rifles.

He may well thunderously menace the world again with his schtick about nuclear weapons.

He's announced that Russia is calling up reserves. And yes he threatened something about nuclear weapons and finished off with 'and this is not a bluff'. What a ****.

 

[Icy Gull]

Putin could well announce mobilisation today ready to send 100000 more conscripts to Ukraine with meagre rations, no winter kit, but at least with WW2 rifles.

He may well thunderously menace the world again with his schtick about nuclear weapons.

Already done it

“If the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to defend Russia and our people, we will use all means we have. This is not a bluff.

 

[sparkie]

So his plan, I think someone mentioned above, is to annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson and threaten anyone who "invades" these "parts of Russia" with nuclear weapons.

He's got some front, we can give him that, but if it works he'll try the same play elsewhere.

 

[sparkie]

[Tweet]1545108968103608322[/Tweet]

 

[Triggaaar]

Putin would portray the illegal annexation of lands as a success. Any settlement must include a complete withdrawal.

Yep. I hope that some massive artillery strikes are planned against key targets in those locations. The longer it is between them being annexed and any strike by Ukraine, the more Russia can claim that Russia itself is being attacked (even though no matter how long, we'll know it's not), but if they're being attacked as these fake referendums are held, it's a more difficult lie for Russia to spin.

But I wonder if first try to strangle Germany and Italy without gas for a complete winter, with rationed power to their industries.

The problem for Russia with that plan is that after winter, Italy and Germany won't be so desperate for the gas, and will have made progress in finding other sources. Not to mention the continued damage to Russia's economy, or the fact that they'll continue to lose the war on the ground.

 

[A1X]

Putin having to say “I’m not bluffing” is definitely what someone who is bluffing would do. It also denies the realpolitik that China is no more going to let him launch nuclear war than fly in the air.

 

[SeagullinExile]

It’ll take months to mobilize 300,000 reserves. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big Ukrainian push in the next few weeks.

 

[Insel affe]

This is his last throw of the dice, annex those areas, mobilize untrained ill equipped cannon fodder, feed of Russian nationalism when the Ukraine continues to fight for it's own land, it is all Russian propaganda aimed at more the Russian people, falsely claiming it is they the Russian people that are under attack, take up arms, trust me the west is evil.

He was always going to throw this card on to the table, why are some of the western leaders so shocked.
He played Macron at the beginning of the invasion and now has played Erdoğan, who only a few days ago met Putin and came away saying Putin wants an end to the war, sure he does.

He is desperately hanging on to power as are his cronies, all protecting their wealth and positions of power.
I am not sure what the end game is, but unfortunately I have no doubt Russia would use nuclear weapons of some magnitude.

 

[herecomesaregular]

[Tweet]1545108968103608322[/Tweet]

Yes, dated July 7th.

Nothing Putin has done for years seems hidden, all his activities (including poisoning people in the UK) are out-there and observed and predicted. Yet the West just seems powerless and unwilling to do anything.

 

[Eric the meek]

To recap, here is what Putin is doing, to give his 'special military operation' a bit of help, seven months after he started it.

1) Fast track referendums, in the middle of a war, in the four areas he has occupied, so that they can join Russia, and he can hold them up as a success.
2) Partial mobilisation of 300,000 reservists to become full members of the Russian armed forces.
3) Amended a law that extends punishments for defaulting troops, to limit the number of desertions and refusals.

All going according to plan then.

 

[Mellotron]

He is desperately hanging on to power as are his cronies, all protecting their wealth and positions of power.
I am not sure what the end game is, but unfortunately I have no doubt Russia would use nuclear weapons of some magnitude.

Given the desperation to cling to power, and the utter obsession with legacy, blowing up Russia doesn’t make any sense at all, given what his ultimate goals are (to be remembered as a Great Russian Leader).

If he truly didn’t care about those things, surely nukes would’ve happened a long, long time before now? And if he does care about legacy and how he is seen, the last thing he'd want to do is be the man responsible for the end of Russia.

 

[Eric the meek]

Given the desperation to cling to power, and the utter obsession with legacy, blowing up Russia doesn’t make any sense at all, given what his ultimate goals are (to be remembered as a Great Russian Leader).

If he truly didn’t care about those things, surely nukes would’ve happened a long, long time before now? And if he does care about things, the last thing he'd want to do is be the man responsible for the end of Russia.

I agree. I was going to say something similar, along the following lines.

Why is Putin mobilising 300,000 civilians (and therefore prompting questions, alarm, criticism etc in Russia) and changed a law to shoot them if they refuse to fight, if he plans to use nukes?

 

[usernamed]

This is going to cause quartermasters and supply depots all across Russia to be shitting bricks, as the 300,000 rifles and 10,000 armoured vehicles they supposedly have in reserve turn out to have been magically replaced by 10 broken muskets and a pedal bike.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

My take on this referendum thing is that this "could" be part of an exit strategy.

I believe Putin's main concern now is for his own life, rather than any his legacy, which he knows is trashed.. But if he can present limited territorial gains to the Russian people, then hold onto them with masses of cannon fodder at least through the winter, this might mean he can hold on.

Then in 6 months time, when the Ukranians will likely have swept through his forces and reclaimed these regions, he can paint it with indignation that the West has stolen Russian territory. If he can pin it on the west, that might shift enough blame from him in order to prevent him from being thrown from a window or shot in a basement. It will be a close run thing though.

 

[Insel affe]

I agree. I was going to say something similar, along the following lines.

Why is Putin mobilising 300,000 civilians (and therefore prompting questions, alarm, criticism etc in Russia) and changed a law to shoot them if they refuse to fight, if he plans to use nukes?

You forget, he does not care one jot about cannon fodder or his own people, he is narcissist and does not care for anyone else.