[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Eric the meek]

Russian TV pundits are openly questioning the war in Ukraine:

02:23 onwards

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f3uyImbZSOA&ab_channel=MSNBC

 

[The Clamp]

Ukraine couldn’t be doing this without incredibly accurate and devastating missile systems supplied from the UK, Germany and US. Taking out arms dumps etc up to 190 miles away. Russian tank and other armoured vehicle losses are huge, a big dent in their entire serviceable numbers.

If the fascist loon stays in charge of Russia, it would be no surprise to see dirty weapons used at some stage and further atrocities.

I mentioned it briefly earlier in the thread but the British Army is restructuring, Cutting down on troops and aiming to become a more long range fighting force. To that end, they have commissioned huge amounts of state of the art, long rage weaponry and ordnance. It is brand new tech. And they are filed testing it against the Russians in Ukraine. It's why we have sent so much out there. We want to see how well it performs.

According to the Royal Engineer that told me this, it is working extremely well. If it continues to use old, conventional weapons, the Russian army will simply be wiped off the face of the earth. Of course that leaves Putin with some rather dangerous decisions to make.

 

[crookie]

Still can't quite get my head around how utterly abysmal the Russian army have been in the field. Despite massively outnumbering the Ukrainians in every aspect of manpower, weaponry, naval forces and airpower they have rarely raised themselves above the inept. Barring the early initial successes, the only achievements they have is 'liberating' areas of the Donbass. And when I say that, I mean raising towns and cities to the ground with massive artillery bombardments. Even then, the Ukrainians made them pay for every metre of territory. When the boot is in the other foot, the Russians, it seems, can't run fast enough. Poorly motivated, led and equipped, they have proved to be a woeful fighting force. NATO must be amazed at how badly they have performed. Even if Putin, with his last throw of the dice, was to order a general mobilisation, would this really make a difference? It takes up to a year to train a tank crew, and what tanks do they have left in storage? T-62's that couldn't lay a glove on modern tanks in the Iraq war 31 years ago ? Putin has had a shocker here, his army, probably much feared in the West, has shown itself incapable of defeating a much smaller enemy, and in the process, has lost an unbelievable amount of equipment, both destroyed and captured. It is difficult to see, in a conventional sense at least, that it has any capability for offensive operations in the medium term. Utter humiliation. Can't see his inner circle tolerating said humiliation for much longer

Sent from my SM-G991B using Tapatalk

 

[SeagullinExile]

Well then sadly, millions of untrained, completely wet behind the ears Russian conscripts will be slaughtered by
HIMARS, US beasts called howitzers and a battle-hardened motivated army.

It won’t just be military mobilization, the economy will go on a wartime footing too. It would also mean the Russian doctrine of deploying tactical nukes would definitely be on the table.

 

[driddles]

It won’t just be military mobilization, the economy will go on a wartime footing too. It would also mean the Russian doctrine of deploying tactical nukes would definitely be on the table.

To get weapons from where? To repair existing weapons with what parts? To sacrifice how many of their planes? I've heard "oh but the nukes" since day 1 of this invasion and for the last 45 years of my life. I ain't buying it.

 

[SeagullinExile]

To get weapons from where? To repair existing weapons with what parts? To sacrifice how many of their planes? I've heard "oh but the nukes" since day 1 of this invasion and for the last 45 years of my life. I ain't buying it.

You don’t have to buy it. But, the first strike nuclear option is and always has been part of Russian/Soviet military doctrine. It can’t be dismissed out of hand.

 

[beorhthelm]

You don’t have to buy it. But, the first strike nuclear option is and always has been part of Russian/Soviet military doctrine. It can’t be dismissed out of hand.

as response to a threat from superior adversary right? kinda rules out a strike in Ukraine, unless they want to acknowledge Ukraine is a superior military. use of nukes means they've lost so bad its a strategic threat, reckon the military will turn on Putin first.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

You don’t have to buy it. But, the first strike nuclear option is and always has been part of Russian/Soviet military doctrine. It can’t be dismissed out of hand.

But equally, you can't do anything differently.

Ukranians still have to completely drive the Russians out
The west still have to supply as many weapons as possible.

We can't hold back just because of the faint possibility. If Putin wants to go down that road, he may or may not be able to and it will have to be dealt with if he does.

 

[Weststander]

I mentioned it briefly earlier in the thread but the British Army is restructuring, Cutting down on troops and aiming to become a more long range fighting force. To that end, they have commissioned huge amounts of state of the art, long rage weaponry and ordnance. It is brand new tech. And they are filed testing it against the Russians in Ukraine. It's why we have sent so much out there. We want to see how well it performs.

According to the Royal Engineer that told me this, it is working extremely well. If it continues to use old, conventional weapons, the Russian army will simply be wiped off the face of the earth. Of course that leaves Putin with some rather dangerous decisions to make.

Putin sitting in the dry of the Kremlin, sending his countrymen to their deaths in an illegal waging of war and invasion. I bet he doesn’t give a **** on a human level. Just chess pieces.

What a fool. He’s driven ever neutral Finland and Sweden to join NATO. He miscalculated that Germany and Italy would reluctantly lay down and have their tummies tickled due to their reliance on his gas. He miscalculated in not believing the West would freeze Russian assets and block exports.

 

[hampshirebrightonboy]

Putin sitting in the dry of the Kremlin, sending his countrymen to their deaths in an illegal waging of war and invasion. I bet he doesn’t give a **** on a human level. Just chess pieces.

What a fool. He’s driven ever neutral Finland and Sweden to join NATO. He miscalculated that Germany and Italy would reluctantly lay down and have their tummies tickled due to their reliance on his gas. He miscalculated in not believing the West would freeze Russian assets and block exports.

When he says Russia has lost nothing I wonder what the mothers and fathers of killed solders think.

 

[SeagullinExile]

But equally, you can't do anything differently.

Ukranians still have to completely drive the Russians out
The west still have to supply as many weapons as possible.

We can't hold back just because of the faint possibility. If Putin wants to go down that road, he may or may not be able to and it will have to be dealt with if he does.

Absolutely. I’m just pointing out that IF Russia declares war, it’s a game changer. A very dangerous one that could escalate the conflict, even beyond Ukraine’s borders.

 

[SeagullinExile]

as response to a threat from superior adversary right? kinda rules out a strike in Ukraine, unless they want to acknowledge Ukraine is a superior military. use of nukes means they've lost so bad its a strategic threat, reckon the military will turn on Putin first.

This is why they have that option on the table, they’ve always been inferior to NATO on the battlefield. Yes, I think Putin will be ousted, I’ve said this all along.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

Absolutely. I’m just pointing out that IF Russia declares war, it’s a game changer. A very dangerous one that could escalate the conflict, even beyond Ukraine’s borders.

I don't see how it leads to the escalation you describe.

The way I see it, putting guns in the hands of farmers and lawyers and sending them to the front, just leads to lots and lots of dead farmers and lawyers. If they have any sense, they'll drop their weapons the moment they see a soldier. The Kremlin doesn't have the time to turn them into an effective fighting force.

 

[Eric the meek]

Putin sitting in the dry of the Kremlin, sending his countrymen to their deaths in an illegal waging of war and invasion. I bet he doesn’t give a **** on a human level. Just chess pieces.

What a fool. He’s driven ever neutral Finland and Sweden to join NATO. He miscalculated that Germany and Italy would reluctantly lay down and have their tummies tickled due to their reliance on his gas. He miscalculated in not believing the West would freeze Russian assets and block exports.

I genuinely cannot recall a single decision or assessment by Putin throughout this whole train crash, that could be described as sensible.

Here are a few more to add to your collection.

The failure to spot that a 40 mile convoy heading for Kyiv would need supplies of fuel, spare parts, and, you know, food.
The assumption that the convoy could reach Kyiv in the first place.
The assumption, that having reached Kyiv, the convoy would be welcomed by the Ukrainians.

I could spend the rest of the day listing his inadequacies as an invader, but you get the picture.

Now, as the train continues to hit the buffers, the crunch of grinding metal is beginning to alert warlords in several of the distant and diverse regions of the Russian federation.

We all make mistakes in life, but Putin has made a truly epic, historic one.

 

[Brovion]

This is why they have that option on the table, they’ve always been inferior to NATO on the battlefield. Yes, I think Putin will be ousted, I’ve said this all along.

He may well be - and be replaced by someone worse. The problem is we all seem to think that this war is Putin's and Putin's alone and that every other Russian is going along with it just because they're too scared to do otherwise. But a lot of the open criticism of the war in Russia is coming from people who think that Putin's mistake wasn't invading Ukraine - it was that he isn't going in hard enough. The new dictator may wish to correct Putin's soft approach.

That's obviously just conjecture. It would be great if Putin gets assassinated today and the new guy blames it all on Putin, calls the 'special military operation' off, and said Russia wants to be friends with everyone. However I do think there is an element of wishful thinking in that.

 

[Weststander]

I genuinely cannot recall a single decision or assessment by Putin throughout this whole train crash, that could be described as sensible.

Here are a few more to add to your collection.

The failure to spot that a 40 mile convoy heading for Kyiv would need supplies of fuel, spare parts, and, you know, food.
The assumption that the convoy could reach Kyiv in the first place.
The assumption, that having reached Kyiv, the convoy would be welcomed by the Ukrainians.

I could spend the rest of the day listing his inadequacies as an invader, but you get the picture.

Now, as the train continues to hit the buffers, the crunch of grinding metal is beginning to alert warlords in several of the distant and diverse regions of the Russian federation.

We all make mistakes in life, but Putin has made a truly epic, historic one.

Ironically, making the same mistakes of military dictators targeting Moscow in 1812 and 1941.

 

[SeagullinExile]

I don't see how it leads to the escalation you describe.

The way I see it, putting guns in the hands of farmers and lawyers and sending them to the front, just leads to lots and lots of dead farmers and lawyers. If they have any sense, they'll drop their weapons the moment they see a soldier. The Kremlin doesn't have the time to turn them into an effective fighting force.

Exactly. That’s why we should worry about the nuclear option. I think NATO would have to respond if this happened, hence a possible escalation beyond Ukrainian borders.

 

[Weststander]

He may well be - and be replaced by someone worse. The problem is we all seem to think that this war is Putin's and Putin's alone and that every other Russian is going along with it just because they're too scared to do otherwise. But a lot of the open criticism of the war in Russia is coming from people who think that Putin's mistake wasn't invading Ukraine - it was that he isn't going in hard enough. The new dictator may wish to correct Putin's soft approach.

That's obviously just conjecture. It would be great if Putin gets assassinated today and the new guy blames it all on Putin, calls the 'special military operation' off, and said Russia wants to be friends with everyone. However I do think there is an element of wishful thinking in that.

The cabal around him, carefully selected and not bumped-off, are equally fascist/nationalistic. I agree.

 

[Eric the meek]

This is why they have that option on the table, they’ve always been inferior to NATO on the battlefield. Yes, I think Putin will be ousted, I’ve said this all along.

Nuclear weapons are a deterrent. All the time you don't use them, they are a deterrent to a foreign enemy to use them on you. Once you've used them, the opposite is true. The nuclear option is no longer on the table. It is no longer a deterrent. Indeed, it has worked in reverse. You are now a target.

 

[Weststander]

Exactly. That’s why we should worry about the nuclear option. I think NATO would have to respond if this happened, hence a possible escalation beyond Ukrainian borders.

Perhaps I’m naive, but genuinely I can never see NATO nations using nuclear weapons on Russian people or Russian sovereign territory.

Thank God.

They would very quickly escalate to the end for us all. Mad, elderly Putin might like the idea.

I’m concerned that Putin may use a dirty bomb, which might be chemical or biological, on eg Kviv, Berlin, Paris, Stockholm, Helsinki. Planted by an agent, then he’ll deny it, of course.