[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[raymondo]

My relatives are on the 16:30 ( 14:30 UK time ) flight out of Lviv.

I had to practically beg them to take it as they were quite happy to wait until tomorrow or beyond.

If the airspace shuts they will be charging to the Polish border ( hopefully before the Russian Air Assault troops coincidentally stationed at the very western tip of the Belarus force take the land border crossings with Poland - my tactical guess ).

Very best of luck to you all

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Very best of luck to you all

Thanks. Not long now.

 

[raymondo]

Thanks. Not long now.

I can understand that every minute is stressful

 

[Insel affe]

My relatives are on the 16:30 ( 14:30 UK time ) flight out of Lviv.

I had to practically beg them to take it as they were quite happy to wait until tomorrow or beyond.

If the airspace shuts they will be charging to the Polish border ( hopefully before the Russian Air Assault troops coincidentally stationed at the very western tip of the Belarus force take the land border crossings with Poland - my tactical guess ).

I wish your relatives all the best in their escape, tense and nervy times for you and the rest of the world.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

[tweet]1495856268464074753[/tweet]

Anyone expecting serious sanctions from the west is deluding themselves. Oh sure, they talk a good game, and most nations have passed the Magnitsky Act or derivations thereof, but let's face facts. Much of Europe is dependent on Russia for mineral resources and energy. The UK Governing party is awash with Russian money (to the extent the US administration fears our response will be tempered as a result) and the US is not going to risk nuclear armageddon over a small patch of eastern Ukraine most of their population couldn't place on a map even if it had a massive arrow pointing at it.

There are two sides to that coin. Russian interests are as dependent upon the revenue from selling commodities as we are in buying. Western oil companies are also large shareholders in Russian energy producers so sanctioning this part of the economy may be something of an own goal. Far better to target Russian banks, individuals and extended family.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I agree with your sentiments, but there is some responsibility on the people of Russia. Part of Putin's calculation here is that it will make him more popular and he's probably right. Even if widespread street protest is highly unadvisable in Russia, surely they should be making their discontent known more that is currently happening.

I'm sure it's most of his calculation. Isn't Putin's biggest fear being Ceaucescu'ed through the streets?

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

I wish your relatives all the best in their escape, tense and nervy times for you and the rest of the world.

Cheers - I'll be far happier after they touch down later.

 

[Insel affe]

My main worry is if this escalates rapidly, Russia will look for Allies and we could see a Russia, China, Iran, North Korea alliance that would be formidable and have devastating affects for the world. Putin is to all intense and purposes the anti christ, Nostradamus warns about.

 

[peterward]

Thanks. Not long now.

It feels like a race against the clock doesn't it. It's awful.

Hardly slept night before last, on phone to in law at all stages to make sure no issues, texted when on aircraft. Even then I wasn't relaxed being a pessimist in case of a technical issue or a passenger having a heart attack and being forced to land, it's 40 odd mins flight time from Kyiv to border..... only seeing aircraft on flightradar 24 crossing into polish airspace did I finally exhale.

 

[Nobby Cybergoat]

I'm sure it's most of his calculation. Isn't Putin's biggest fear being Ceaucescu'ed through the streets?

I'd imagine so, and it's not like the Russians have never done this before

 

[peterward]

My main worry is if this escalates rapidly, Russia will look for Allies and we could see a Russia, China, Iran, North Korea alliance that would be formidable and have devastating affects for the world. Putin is to all intense and purposes the anti christ, Nostradamus warns about.

I don't think China can back Russia in this, abstain maybe, but China for all it's ills is always harking on about preserving sovereignty and territorial integrity, plus it has reasonable claims on Taiwan which was part of China till the 1940's before declaring independence when China was weak.... It can't support a parallel breakaway region as it's the same argument they make over Taiwan that Ukraine makes over Donbass.

And the antichrist is aluded to be a leader who isn't a ruthless hated tyrant like Putin, but opposite a ruthless, deceitful but utterly charming charismatic leader whom the world will embrace and follow.

 

[peterward]

I'm sure it's most of his calculation. Isn't Putin's biggest fear being Ceaucescu'ed through the streets?

Yes he's terrified and at war with democracy and civil society.

Ukraine moving rapidly in that direction shits him up as he's terrified of that standard of life being seen by families friends from Ukraine. All this NATO stuff was a fake pretext, the one and only true objective is kill democracy and stop Ukraine moving towards the west.

This is Putin and his Tzar based Kleptocracy self interest alone, not Russias national interest.

I hope to see him Gaddafi'd or Ceaucescu'ed

 

[pb21]

I don't think China can back Russia in this, abstain maybe, but China for all it's ills is always harking on about preserving sovereignty and territorial integrity, plus it has reasonable claims on Taiwan which was part of China till the 1940's before declaring independence when China was weak.... It can't support a parallel breakaway region as it's the same argument they make over Taiwan that Ukraine makes over Donbass.

And the antichrist is aluded to be a leader who isn't a ruthless hated tyrant like Putin, but opposite a ruthless, deceitful but utterly charming charismatic leader whom the world will embrace and follow.

I'm not familiar with the area or history, but could China not back Russia 'reclaiming' Ukraine on the basis its akin (might have to bend the truth a bit?) to China 'reclaiming' Taiwan.

 

[Insel affe]

I don't think China can back Russia in this, abstain maybe, but China for all it's ills is always harking on about preserving sovereignty and territorial integrity, plus it has reasonable claims on Taiwan which was part of China till the 1940's before declaring independence when China was weak.... It can't support a parallel breakaway region as it's the same argument they make over Taiwan that Ukraine makes over Donbass.

And the antichrist is aluded to be a leader who isn't a ruthless hated tyrant like Putin, but opposite a ruthless, deceitful but utterly charming charismatic leader whom the world will embrace and follow.

Points taken and they do make sense, however China is slowly regaining control of Hong Kong and regressing its social freedoms. If they see the "west" as weak, it could be the perfect storm for them to capitalise on, things can quickly spiral out of control and at the moment, I would suggest the "west" has never had such weak and incompetent leaders as it has now, Macron and various other political figures all went to Russia for meetings with Putin, all placed at the end of an over sized table 20 feet apart, that told me all I need to know, It was an insult to them, Putin was not interested in what they have to say or what we think.

How much of an impact will sanctions have on Russia, I doubt very little, his declaration last night that the Ukraine basically was a non entity, was a red flag to all former Russian states and occupied countries.
They have been pushing our buttons for years and various other Nato countries, encroaching into our no fly zones and shipping waters, all the time testing our response times and actions, and not for the fun of it, they have a plan.
This has the potential to well, you know.

 

[Swansman]

I think you are right, Swansman. How easy it is to whip people up to division and righteous anger. Now we some users on this board emotionally ranting that all Russians are bad and horrible. That from our wonderfully non-racist, reasonable NSC members.

Yup. Humans are predictable, very easily manipulated species. Thats how our political and financial leaders over and over manage to get away with atrocities and lies.

 

[Insel affe]

Yup. Humans are predictable, very easily manipulated species. Thats how our political and financial leaders over and over manage to get away with atrocities and lies.

You forgot religious leaders

 

[Thunder Bolt]

[tweet]1496075348731215876[/tweet]

 

[MJsGhost]

Even if widespread street protest is highly unadvisable in Russia, surely they should be making their discontent known more that is currently happening.

And who's going to be the first, exactly? Given it's highly likely the first people who dare to speak up will quietly disappear (and so might well their families) who will do so? Who among us would be brave enough if we were in their position? I'm damned sure I wouldn't be.

How would we know if there have been protests? Don't underestimate the Russian state's ability to suppress news of dissent so as to appear to have total support (as well as crack down hard and fast to limit the scale of any protest)

 

[Skuller]

This is not true though is it, take for example the Iraq war, there was widespread opposition to the invasion of Iraq in the UK and across the western world. A large percentage of the population did not believe the government spun line about the threat of weapons of mass destruction. People in this country took a lot of interest in the opposing side of the argument and it sparked a huge political debate. The lies told to the British public ended up permanently tarnishing the reputation of the then prime minister Tony Blair.

Yes, there was such “widespread opposition” “tarnishing the reputation….of Tony Blair” that he got re elected two years after the Iraq war with a 100 seat majority.

 

[Easy 10]

Can you please get a grip? My wife was originally from Russia, and her and her family are lovely, warm welcoming people, as are many Russians I have met there. We also have friends in Ukraine who currently fear for their business and their lives. Yes, their tourists can be unpleasant, but how about ours? Both as bad as each other in popular, boozy resorts.

Do not let the awful geo-political realities of the world at present allow you to condemn a whole people. Isn't that the very definition of racism, which so many on here rightly fight against. Do not let political realities and leaders make you judge a whole people. Imagine if we were all judged on our dear prime minister?

My intention was not to condemn that entire nations people, although reading my post back that is how it comes across, so apologies for that. Of course just like any nation, there are millions of decent, normal, law-abiding Russians who nobody would ever have a problem with, that (should) go without saying.

My own personal experience of their tourists is their insufferable arrogance - at an all-inclusive bar or buffet much like [MENTION=15046]peterward[/MENTION] 's experience, they have absolutely NO concept of queuing, or manners, or waiting their turn, which caused numerous rows and unpleasantness during our stay. But I guess that's just the kind of behaviour SOME of the more monied ones who can travel think is normal, or what they are entitled to do.

Unfortunately the Russian establishment is festooned with sinister, highly dangerous serial liars who are simply a law unto themselves, from the top of government to their sporting authorities, with its state-sponsored doping on an industrial scale that has ruined several Olympics now (and is always point-blank denied denied DENIED until the evidence is completely irrefutable). Not to mention buying a World Cup. That is who my ire is primarily directed towards. Other nations are guilty of some or all of what Russia gets up to, but not on quite the same scale, or with the overt indifference to whatever anyone else says about their activities.