[Politics] Russia invades Ukraine (24/02/2022)

[Herr Tubthumper]

negotiate what though? they have nothing in their gift the Russians want, they cant promise anything Ukraine does not to agree with.

The issue is around security. So they can discuss this and maybe find an imaginative solution? As leverage they have various sanctions and there’s the gas pipe project which is a big deal to Russia. And the last resort is military conflict. That’s a fair amount to talk about I’d say.

 

[heathgate]

This won't end with sanctions on Russia. If Putin has his pants pulled down then this could rapidly escalate to nuclear threat.

There has been nuclear threat since the 50s, nothing new there... Putin is banking on the west not having the knackers to stand firm... they will after the Crimea fiasco,... Germany is showing itself to be the minor player in all this too, unable to field a proper military force, unwilling to jeopardize its gas and oil supplies, pathetic... Putin thinks this leverage is enough to give him room to expand.

Economic war to follow any incursion, military standoff nothing more than that, cold war resumes with increasing nato presence in Baltic states and Poland in particular.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[heathgate]

So Russia recognises the Luhansk and Donesk Republics today, then FALSE FLAGs a Ukrainian attack on them, and the Russian tanks roll tonight.

A bad miscalculation by mad man Putin and the sanctions will see him ended.

Agreed

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[heathgate]

What can France do? They seem to be able to negotiate, and negotiate with more wit and intelligence, than the others. To date they seen the only credible party on this matter in my opinion.

Putin will at different moments in all this, pick a different western front runner to have a pseudo-dialogue with...this he hopes will keep the west 'fractured' ... the multiple threads presenting a confused and disjointed party line that wont give the west a single unified voice.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[peterward]

So Russia recognises the Luhansk and Donesk Republics today, then FALSE FLAGs a Ukrainian attack on them, and the Russian tanks roll tonight.

A bad miscalculation by mad man Putin and the sanctions will see him ended.

Only half right imho.
The first bit is all likely.

and of course the DNR/LNR are entirely created puppet states made by the Russian military (under the auspices of local militia with the latest Russian hi tech arms) just like South Ossetta in Georgia and Transdnistra in Moldova. Their purpose, to form a pro russian breakaway puppet statelet is because of the conventions of NATO and the EU who both say new members must have all internal disputes resolved to join, thus why Putin manufacturs these breakaways, then freezes the conflict to try and prevent these nations joining the EU or NATO.

But he has been saving for this moment a long time, years in fact, the Russian state has very balanced state budget with low borrowing and has ammased close to 600 billion dollars as a buffer against sanctions, couple that with the new russia/china close so-operation agreement and you can see where the gas will be sold.

So the Russian state is in the best place possible, to endure sanctions and Putin has been preparing for that, and maybe has already priced that in.

What the Oligarchs around him do, when they have their finanancial hearts ripped out is harder to quantify?

 

[Brovion]

The issue is around security. So they can discuss this and maybe find an imaginative solution? As leverage they have various sanctions and there’s the gas pipe project which is a big deal to Russia. And the last resort is military conflict. That’s a fair amount to talk about I’d say.

I agree, and this is probably going to be an unpopular view but I think Putin has a point when he objects to Ukraine joining NATO; it's a bit like France for example suddenly wanting to join the Warsaw Pact at the height of the Cold War. I've no doubt the Russians felt threatened when other former Soviet states such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia joined, but back in 2004 they weren't in a position to object. Now they've got a strongman in charge who feels he wants to draw a line in the sand as he doesn't want Russia bordered on all sides by hostile nations.

And what benefit do we gain from having Ukraine in NATO? I felt the expansion in 2004 was ill-judged and that it was more done to prove that the West had 'won' the Cold War and could now act with impunity. A bit of humility wouldn't have gone amiss and by all means recruit nations such as Bulgaria, but taking in former Soviet republics was deliberately provocative.

 

[heathgate]

Only half right imho.
The first bit is all likely.

and of course the DNR/LNR are entirely created puppet states made by the Russian military (under the auspices of local militia with the latest Russian hi tech arms) just like South Ossetta in Georgia and Transdnistra in Moldova. Their purpose, to form a pro russian breakaway puppet statelet is because of the conventions of NATO and the EU who both say new members must have all internal disputes resolved to join, thus why Putin manufacturs these breakaways, then freezes the conflict to try and prevent these nations joining the EU or NATO.

But he has been saving for this moment a long time, years in fact, the Russian state has very balanced state budget with low borrowing and has ammased close to 600 billion dollars as a buffer against sanctions, couple that with the new russia/china close so-operation agreement and you can see where the gas will be sold.

So the Russian state is in the best place possible, to endure sanctions and Putin has been preparing for that, and maybe has already priced that in.

What the Oligarchs around him do, when they have their finanancial hearts ripped out is harder to quantify?

Your last paragraph is the key point...in the glasnost/perestroika era, the real power in the former Soviet region has been those oligarchs... ruffle their feathers and I suspect there may be 'trouble at mill'.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Putin will at different moments in all this, pick a different western front runner to have a pseudo-dialogue with...this he hopes will keep the west 'fractured' ... the multiple threads presenting a confused and disjointed party line that wont give the west a single unified voice.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

I don’t think it’s confused at all. In some respects the “west” is a classic good cop (EU) bad cop (US) scenario which isn’t confusing.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I agree, and this is probably going to be an unpopular view but I think Putin has a point when he objects to Ukraine joining NATO; it's a bit like France for example suddenly wanting to join the Warsaw Pact at the height of the Cold War. I've no doubt the Russians felt threatened when other former Soviet states such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia joined, but back in 2004 they weren't in a position to object. Now they've got a strongman in charge who feels he wants to draw a line in the sand as he doesn't want Russia bordered on all sides by hostile nations.

And what benefit do we gain from having Ukraine in NATO? I felt the expansion in 2004 was ill-judged and that it was more done to prove that the West had 'won' the Cold War and could now act with impunity. A bit of humility wouldn't have gone amiss and by all means recruit nations such as Bulgaria, but taking in former Soviet republics was deliberately provocative.

Totally agree. I really do feel that an imaginative solution will be found. NATO shot themselves in the foot with the open door policy. I can understand the need to say this on paper, but in reality isn’t always workable. It’s resolvable though.

 

[heathgate]

I agree, and this is probably going to be an unpopular view but I think Putin has a point when he objects to Ukraine joining NATO; it's a bit like France for example suddenly wanting to join the Warsaw Pact at the height of the Cold War. I've no doubt the Russians felt threatened when other former Soviet states such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia joined, but back in 2004 they weren't in a position to object. Now they've got a strongman in charge who feels he wants to draw a line in the sand as he doesn't want Russia bordered on all sides by hostile nations.

And what benefit do we gain from having Ukraine in NATO? I felt the expansion in 2004 was ill-judged and that it was more done to prove that the West had 'won' the Cold War and could now act with impunity. A bit of humility wouldn't have gone amiss and by all means recruit nations such as Bulgaria, but taking in former Soviet republics was deliberately provocative.

....but has actually proved the polar opposite... the Baltic states, the presence of Nato hasn't proved a hostile scenario... it has simply illustrated clearly that Nato is a defensive setup, not aggressive. Nearly 20 years of benign membership by the 3 Baltic states, Poland, Czech R etc, is clear evidence that the Russian people have nothing to fear from Nato unless their leadership provokes a crisis, as per eastern Ukraine.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[Eric the meek]

I agree, and this is probably going to be an unpopular view but I think Putin has a point when he objects to Ukraine joining NATO; it's a bit like France for example suddenly wanting to join the Warsaw Pact at the height of the Cold War. I've no doubt the Russians felt threatened when other former Soviet states such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia joined, but back in 2004 they weren't in a position to object. Now they've got a strongman in charge who feels he wants to draw a line in the sand as he doesn't want Russia bordered on all sides by hostile nations.

And what benefit do we gain from having Ukraine in NATO? I felt the expansion in 2004 was ill-judged and that it was more done to prove that the West had 'won' the Cold War and could now act with impunity. A bit of humility wouldn't have gone amiss and by all means recruit nations such as Bulgaria, but taking in former Soviet republics was deliberately provocative.

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are former Soviet states, but the key word is former. Russia has no jurisdiction over them. They are independent nation states who wanted to join NATO. It's the same with Ukraine. It wants to join NATO and for a very good reason, which you may have noticed. Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are concerned for their national security.

You write - and see - only from the Russian perspective and ignore the wishes of the independent state of Ukraine. You ignore the victim and support the aggressor. I believe Russia has 'previous' in this respect.

 

[heathgate]

I don’t think it’s confused at all. In some respects the “west” is a classic good cop (EU) bad cop (US) scenario…..which is clear and not disjointed.

Even within the EU, the militarily toothless Germans are desperate to protect their economy and the tied links with Russia...this is wholly divergent from the pleas and fears expressed and felt by Poland and the Baltic states.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[Brovion]

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are former Soviet states, but the key word is former. Russia has no jurisdiction over them. They are independent nation states who wanted to join NATO. It's the same with Ukraine. It wants to join NATO and for a very good reason, which you may have noticed. Ukraine, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are concerned for their national security.

You write - and see - only from the Russian perspective and ignore the wishes of the independent state of Ukraine. You ignore the victim and support the aggressor. I believe Russia has 'previous' in this respect.

Wow. You are Liz Truss and I claim my £5. Don't apply for any jobs in the Diplomatic Corps.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Even within the EU, the militarily toothless Germans are desperate to protect their economy and the tied links with Russia...this is wholly divergent from the pleas and fears expressed and felt by Poland and the Baltic states.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

Of course, 27 nations will have different ideas on this, and links to Russia within the 27 differ as well. It would be absurd to think anything else. But, ultimately one voice.

Let’s just wait and see what happens.

 

[portlock seagull]

Even within the EU, the militarily toothless Germans are desperate to protect their economy and the tied links with Russia...this is wholly divergent from the pleas and fears expressed and felt by Poland and the Baltic states.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

We ought to kick Russia’s butt but oh, we got rid of our army, navy, airforce. Still, we’re good for evacuating pets so that should keep the Russians quiet.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I agree, and this is probably going to be an unpopular view but I think Putin has a point when he objects to Ukraine joining NATO; it's a bit like France for example suddenly wanting to join the Warsaw Pact at the height of the Cold War. I've no doubt the Russians felt threatened when other former Soviet states such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia joined, but back in 2004 they weren't in a position to object. Now they've got a strongman in charge who feels he wants to draw a line in the sand as he doesn't want Russia bordered on all sides by hostile nations.

And what benefit do we gain from having Ukraine in NATO? I felt the expansion in 2004 was ill-judged and that it was more done to prove that the West had 'won' the Cold War and could now act with impunity. A bit of humility wouldn't have gone amiss and by all means recruit nations such as Bulgaria, but taking in former Soviet republics was deliberately provocative.

NATO is a peacekeeping force. It has never been an aggressor.

 

[Swansman]

Lets hope the West - for once - will make the decision to avoid sending hundreds of thousands of men to die in the battle for Western dominance and all those tasty natural resources in the East but I really wouldnt count on it. The propaganda machine is clearly winding people up, yet again. Impressive how it works every time. Anyone who knows a fair bit of history should also know that the whole "NATO and their members are all about peace and love" shit is ridiculous.

 

[heathgate]

Of course, 27 nations will have different ideas on this, and links to Russia within the 27 differ as well. It would be absurd to think anything else. But, ultimately one voice.

Let’s just wait and see what happens.

One voice yes, normally Germany when it is economics and trade being considered... sadly for Germany in this instance, this is big boys stuff, real diplomacy backed up with some tangible resolve and unity is not the forte of your homeland, France are better placed I agree, lets hope they help light a spark of common sense in Vlads little brain.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

 

[Curious Orange]

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Three countries that entirely surround Russia... or are they barely noticeable compared to the massive length of Russia's borders?

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Lets hope the West - for once - will make the decision to avoid sending hundreds of thousands of men to die in the battle for Western dominance and all those tasty natural resources in the East but I really wouldnt count on it. The propaganda machine is clearly winding people up, yet again. Impressive how it works every time. Anyone who knows a fair bit of history should also know that the whole "NATO and their members are all about peace and love" shit is ridiculous.

Give me one historical reference to NATO starting a conflict.