Roadmap out of lockdown

[Mellotron]

IMO the lockdown has been unofficially increasingly relaxed over the last week or two. I think this is expected/intentional; I can imagine it would be preferable for changes to be as gradual as possible.

I’m certain those advising the government with knowledge of behavioural science would expect the lockdown to be “fraying” by now. If anything, I get the sense they have been surprised how well the lockdown has been adhered to up to now.

 

[Notters]

I guess roadmap suggests there is a route, a direction of travel. A map is just, a map. You might not be going anywhere.

It is very management-speak though, agreed.

A route map would suggest a route.

 

[The Clamp]

Johnson will stick to his tried and tested method. Do nothing. If it somehow works he’ll take the credit, if it fails he’ll blame someone else.

Either way, this weekend is going to be a mess of beach parties and bbq’s and general “it’s all over” revelry.

 

[BN41Albion]

So no relaxation on seeing family members outside of your household just yet it seems?

 

[Mellotron]

A route map would suggest a route.

It would. But you didn’t say that.

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

Seems likely that restrictions on exercise could be reduced from Monday. I can't see anything to suggest that people going out for socially distanced exercise more than once a day would significantly increase overall spread.

Possibly much of the rest of Sunday's guidance could be about getting people / businesses who have voluntarily locked down beyond the Government restrictions to re-open / get back to work. Other than the specific businesses which were restricted (e.g. non-essential retail), all other businesses could have stayed open but many chose to close. E.g. building sites, manufacturing, and all the cafes / restaurants / pubs which could have stayed open to operate a takeaway service but voluntarily chose to close. Beyond the specific businesses which were restricted, the advice to everyone else was keep going to work if you can't carry out your function working from home, and enact measures e.g. hand washing, the 2m rule, but the 2m rule specifically has only ever been advisory and to be applied 'where possible'.

I understand why many businesses may have voluntarily shut down due to the overall level of concern / workers' concerns, supply chain issues, and the financial judgement over staying open with all the associated expenses and potentially a limited income stream vs closing with Government assistance, furloughed wages etc. It seems may of them are re-considering at this stage as it seems many trades are already getting back to work, and some high street businesses re-opening for takeaway etc.

I imagine BJ could have a go at encouraging many of these businesses to re-open to some extent to get things moving again, supply chains start coming back on stream to some extent etc., prior to allowing further sectors to re-open. that doesn't need any change to the current restrictions- it just needs businesses to get back in action where that is possible / appropriate.

Based on what other European countries have done, we can't be more than a few weeks away from allowing some non-essential retail to re-open, from there other countries are taking a staged approach but within a month they seem to have then gone to all retail re-opened and bars / cafes / restaurants possibly next with some restrictions. I appreciate these calls will have to be made based on the current science at that time and some could be delayed if there is a problem with overall spread.

Some countries have stronger regional Government setups (e.g. Germany, France, USA) so may be better suited to different measures being enforced in different areas. That seems unlikely in the UK other than some potential variance between the countries Eng/Wales/Scot/NI.

 

[Jim in the West]

It's fairly likely that the UK guidance will be similar to what the Welsh Government has just announced, which is virtually no change for the next three weeks (ok, in Wales you can now exercise for longer than an hour [but you could anyway, legally]; libraries will open (hurrah!); Garden centres will open). I don't think any of that will make much difference at all.

 

[Weststander]

It's fairly likely that the UK guidance will be similar to what the Welsh Government has just announced, which is virtually no change for the next three weeks (ok, in Wales you can now exercise for longer than an hour [but you could anyway, legally]; libraries will open (hurrah!); Garden centres will open). I don't think any of that will make much difference at all.

For those with gardens (sorry Comrade Plooks) or who simply like a wander and a visit to the cafe, gardens centres opening could be a welcome easing.

I’ll wonder if they’ll be as strict on numbers in/out as Waitrose Hove, where two security guards now barely let a few customers in a time?

 

[Is it PotG?]

For those with gardens (sorry Comrade Plooks) or who simply like a wander and a visit to the cafe, gardens centres opening could be a welcome easing.

I’ll wonder if they’ll be as strict on numbers in/out as Waitrose Hove, where two security guards now barely let a few customers in a time?

Not sure Comrade Plooks will be going to Waitrose; a very, very Tory place to get your groceries.

 

[Mellotron]

It's fairly likely that the UK guidance will be similar to what the Welsh Government has just announced, which is virtually no change for the next three weeks (ok, in Wales you can now exercise for longer than an hour [but you could anyway, legally]; libraries will open (hurrah!); Garden centres will open). I don't think any of that will make much difference at all.

Agreed. I’m sure they’ll be looking at only easing things that have a minuscule effect on the R value, thus giving us another 3 weeks to slow it further while giving some feeling of progress out of lockdown.

 

[Weststander]

Not sure Comrade Plooks will be going to Waitrose; a very, very Tory place to get your groceries.

 

[The Wizard]

The ‘easing’ or restrictions in Wales is basically what we’ve had all along here in England.

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

Schools will be open to some extent in June of that I have no doubt.

The tories will have had enough of that element of the public sector ‘not working’.

 

[WATFORD zero]

From a purely personal point of view, Garden centres would be nice

 

[Mellotron]

From a purely personal point of view, Garden centres would be nice

Looking likely, along with local tips.

 

[Weststander]

Schools will be open to some extent in June of that I have no doubt.

The tories will have had enough of that element of the public sector ‘not working’.

They are working. Our kids have live online lessons from teachers every day, also teachers and heads are physically at schools teaching kids who have parents in frontline services.

The idea about schools reopening fully is coming from some scientists who claim there’s strong evidence that kids may not pass on the virus as much as other age groups. Denmark’s followed that advice.

Personally, for the sake of a few weeks, I think schools may as well reopen fully in September. Which would p off those parents trying to work from home who are finding their children and childcare a big distraction.

 

[Billy the Fish]

Agreed. I’m sure they’ll be looking at only easing things that have a minuscule effect on the R value, thus giving us another 3 weeks to slow it further while giving some feeling of progress out of lockdown.

Spot on I think. It'll be lockdown for another 3 weeks but they'll give back a couple of small freedoms to make everyone feel better

 

[Jimmy Grimble]

They are working. Our kids have live online lessons from teachers every day, also teachers and heads are physically at schools teaching kids who have parents in frontline services.

The idea about schools reopening fully is coming from some scientists who claim there’s strong evidence that kids may not pass on the virus as much as other age groups. Denmark’s followed that advice.

Personally, for the sake of a few weeks, I think schools may as well reopen fully in September. Which would p off those parents trying to work from home who are finding their children and childcare a big distraction.

Fully aware they are working. Just think there’s a perception amongst some that they’re not pulling their weight.

I’ve read evidence from both sides on schools reopening. Much like everything with this virus, it seems the scientists are struggling for a consensus on what is truly best.

Last I checked, Spain, Italy and Ireland were all closed until the new academic year.

I think it’s one of the areas that has fairly big political input. The UK were the very last to initially close schools despite calls for at least a week prior for them to do so. By the time they did close them, schools were seeing attendance figures of less than 50%. You might say it’s another area where the Johnson and co’s hand was forced.

My gut feel is that this government is very keen to get them back open again ASAP and so will side with the scientists who support that.

 

[Weststander]

Fully aware they are working. Just think there’s a perception amongst some that they’re not pulling their weight.

I’ve read evidence from both sides on schools reopening. Much like everything with this virus, it seems the scientists are struggling for a consensus on what is truly best.

Last I checked, Spain, Italy and Ireland were all closed until the new academic year.

I think it’s one of the areas that has fairly big political input. The UK were the very last to initially close schools despite calls for at least a week prior for them to do so. By the time they did close them, schools were seeing attendance figures of less than 50%. You might say it’s another area where the Johnson and co’s hand was forced.

My gut feel is that this government is very keen to get them back open again ASAP and so will side with the scientists who support that.

Hi,

I hope not.

My instinct now, if I'm right, you and I will be relieved, is that the initial easing might not be that much at all. Schools may stay shut for the vast majority of kids.

Too many people imho have taken the p on social distancing, it's a different world out there now than 3 or 4 weeks ago. Too many anecdotes to mention, supported by the last hours on LBC of so many stories of people now blatantly not adhering. People are 'clever' …. don't gather in central Brighton or the seafront, then the police will never catch you. Ultimately it costs other peoples lives and will extend our half-hearted lockdown. Some Brits never fail to let the country down. It's a classless arrogance, round our way lots of respectable 'middle class' families who've ignored the law and guidance.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Hi,

I hope not.

My instinct now, if I'm right, you and I will be relieved, is that the initial easing might not be that much at all. Schools may stay shut for the vast majority of kids.

Too many people imho have taken the p on social distancing, it's a different world out there now than 3 or 4 weeks ago. Too many anecdotes to mention, supported by the last hours on LBC of so many stories of people now blatantly not adhering. People are 'clever' …. don't gather in central Brighton or the seafront, then the police will never catch you. Ultimately it costs other peoples lives and will extend our half-hearted lockdown. Some Brits never fail to let the country down. It's a classless arrogance, round our way lots of respectable 'middle class' families who've ignored the law and guidance.

I think you may be right about schools not opening except for key workers, until September. The recent news over the past 3 or 4 days has shown that in a lot of places the R is near to 1 and I personally think the government will err on the side of caution. I don't think it is valid to highlight typical Tory values when this situation is so far from the norm, most of their behaviour in the crisis has not been typically Tory and Boris' experience will have further his caution. Of course the left will need to keep trotting out the stereotype as it gives them the reassurance that they crave.