Roadmap out of Lockdown - Feb 22nd

[Poojah]

First impressions of the plans are that they are sensible, empathetic and strikingly different from the lockdown easing of last summer. Though I and many others lauded the reopening of pubs at the time, that they reopened before schools hasn’t aged well.

It does seem as though lessons have been learned, however. I didn’t like Boris Johnson as a politician or a person going into this, and my opinion of the man only degraded in the weeks and months following the outbreak of the pandemic. But whether I like him or not, he can’t change the past - only the future.

The vaccine rollout is going astoundingly well. Whether the government can claim responsibility for that I don’t know, but the fact remains that it is. And now we appear to have learned that a pandemic should not be seen as a solely economic problem. Clearly, it has major economic ramifications - but it is a social problem first and foremost and this latest plan seems to reflect that. Credit where it’s due.

I have massive sympathy for those whose industries must remain in hibernation, and I hope that what support is available is enough to see them through. But the education of kids and the ability for families to spend time with their loved ones is so unspeakably important - it is only right they are prioritised.

For me, this is the most balanced and mature set of actions I have seen from this government, and let me reiterate, this is a government that I do not like or affiliate with.

 

[dsr-burnley]

The more the virus circulates during the vaccination period, the more chance there is that mutations arise that can beat the vaccine.

This is a really really critical time, because the virus will be meeting more and more vaccinated people as we roll the program out, and thus any mutations that allow it to get through the vaccines defences will multiply and its genetics selected for. The more infections there are, the more mutations will occur, more vaccinated people exposed and the more chance that a successful mutation will arise and become established. If we don't try and control that we'd be one big petri dish experiment. The ultimate risk is the vaccine becomes ineffective and drags us back into future lockdown. All for the sake of a few weeks now. We need to get numbers down as tiny as possible at soon as possible.

None of that is all that relevant. The world is going to have a lot more coronavirus than we are until they catch up, so our efforts will only cut world coronavirus numbers by less than 1%. Reducing the chances of a mutation by 1% is a tiny, scarcely relevant figure. Unless we are going to close all borders of course - but that isn't likely, and if it was tried, isn't likely to be effective.

Also, the first UK mutation came out in August or September when cases were very low anyway. There is a possibility that mutations thrive better when the "original" virus is doing bady, because the mutation has more room for manouevre. Mutations may find it harder to get established against a widespread existing virus.

 

[crodonilson]

Seems a fairly balanced, sensible approach, the government have really got a grip if things in 2021 when it appeared at the end of the year they were spiralling out of control.

Having decent breaks between each set of easing restrictions means the impact can be measured before any further easing and if any easing leads to a big spike we can act decisively and reimpose measures before they spiral out of control.

My only concern is all schools going back on 8th March, this could be a recipe for disaster as estimates suggest schools open can add as much as 0.5 to the R rate, basically we are giving 3 weeks for children to mix and parents to mingle at the school gate before further easing for Easter holidays so all of the new transmissions begun in and around schools can then spread between households, I just hope people are sensible and stick to the rules of any easing of seeing friends and family will at first he strictly outdoors with social distancing in place and in very small groups.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

None of that is all that relevant. The world is going to have a lot more coronavirus than we are until they catch up, so our efforts will only cut world coronavirus numbers by less than 1%. Reducing the chances of a mutation by 1% is a tiny, scarcely relevant figure. Unless we are going to close all borders of course - but that isn't likely, and if it was tried, isn't likely to be effective.

Also, the first UK mutation came out in August or September when cases were very low anyway. There is a possibility that mutations thrive better when the "original" virus is doing bady, because the mutation has more room for manouevre. Mutations may find it harder to get established against a widespread existing virus.

Yes, successful mutations will become more common when the original virus is doing badly, that's the basis of natural selection. But that's not about raw numbers, its about selection pressures. So the original virus did badly under the lockdown measures and a more transmissible variant arose. And we certainly hope that the virus does badly in the face of the vaccination program - but that's exactly the type of hard selection pressure we're worried about. We already know that there are mutations in South America that are better at evading the vaccine, so we know its possible.

Yes, it's a good point that we're not an island when it comes to fighting this (even though of course we are an island, just that our government refused to use this to our advantage. But that's another matter. ) However the real risk of anti - vaccine mutations will arise when there are a lot of people vaccinated - which makes sense as this is when the selection pressures are highest. When just 1% of people are vaccinated, the original virus can breeze along happily infecting the rest. When 90% are vaccinated, the virus struggles to transmit at all, let alone allow useful mutations to spread. But when a third to a half are vaccinated, you have both a lot of virus transmission and high selection pressures, perfect for effective mutations to both arise and become established.

So we are at that critical juncture. Just because an anti - vaccine variant might arise somewhere else in the world doesn't mean we should shrug our shoulders at the risk or avoid doing something that could lesson the risk. Secondly, the country in which that variant arises will be the hardest hit by it - every other country will have the gift of time - time to close borders to that nation, time to step up testing for that variant, time to develop and administer a new vaccine.

Sadly, if vaccinated people don't care about being exposed to the virus anymore, we could slide back into trouble.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Moving this over to the main board temporarily, as it will be very much in focus tomorrow. Stuff across the media tonight suggesting a cautious four-point plan on releasing lockdown, based on:

Vaccination rollout
Effectiveness
Pressure on NHS
New Variants

With good progress tentative dates could be:

8th March - Schools and Golf/Tennis
29th March - Beer Gardens (max 2 households)
Mid-April: Gyms
Third week in April - Non-essential retail
May: Cinemas, theatres, indoor pubs and restaurants.
August: Foreign holidays and nightclubs

With the Premier League season running to 23rd May, it feels like that could give scope for some fans at some games before the end of this season...

Good idea

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

UK government’s lockdown easing roadmap:

8th March
Schools
One to one in a public space

29th March
Outdoor gatherings (rule of 6)
Outdoor sport


Late April
Non essential retail / hospitality in limited circumstances

Mid May
Pubs, hairdressers, restaurants (indoors)


With a few tweaks, this seems to be the agreed plan in the papers.

 

[Chicken Run]

I don't see data supporting either of your arguments. Could you provide it?

The data I know about suggests hospitalisations down by half in exactly a month, cases and deaths dropping by nearly 25% a week and millions and millions of the most vulnerable vaccinated. Can you tell me what change there would be simply by reopening schools in early March?

Totally agree, with a population in Brighton of circa 600,000 and 60 cases per 100,000 there must be more cases of the trots than Covid 19??

 

[A1X]

The school reopenings feels like the big potential banana skin, SAGE thinking this might push the R back up above 1 which could delay things. I think the two weeks after that really define how much of this actually goes ahead or whether it holds steady (or even reverses). If we get through that relatively unscathed then things look extremely promising.

 

[HH Brighton]

Seems a fairly balanced, sensible approach, the government have really got a grip if things in 2021 when it appeared at the end of the year they were spiralling out of control.

Having decent breaks between each set of easing restrictions means the impact can be measured before any further easing and if any easing leads to a big spike we can act decisively and reimpose measures before they spiral out of control.

My only concern is all schools going back on 8th March, this could be a recipe for disaster as estimates suggest schools open can add as much as 0.5 to the R rate, basically we are giving 3 weeks for children to mix and parents to mingle at the school gate before further easing for Easter holidays so all of the new transmissions begun in and around schools can then spread between households, I just hope people are sensible and stick to the rules of any easing of seeing friends and family will at first he strictly outdoors with social distancing in place and in very small groups.

Astonished that anyone thinks the government has got a grip of this. The worst COVID numbers in Europe, dithering at every decision, handing out contracts to their mates, relaxing the rules over Christmas, could go on and on but its almighty **** up.

 

[crodonilson]

According to BBC sources, there are four steps to reopening and there will be FIVE weeks between each step, time to allow real statistics of the impact of that unlocking on cases and hospitalisations at least, which gives the government the opportunity to push back the next stage of unlocking if necessary and if there is a real spike in infections swiftly reimpose the lockdown measures.

From that we can roughly glean, at the earliest:

8th March - Schools reopening

12th April - Outdoor gatherings, with strict social distancing and rule of 6 or two households max.

17th May - Non essential retail that complies to covid secure spaces, holidays allowed within household bubbles to private lets.

21st June - Hospitality and other close contact such as hairdressers, again with strict social distancing measures in place.

 

[atomised]

The school reopenings feels like the big potential banana skin, SAGE thinking this might push the R back up above 1 which could delay things. I think the two weeks after that really define how much of this actually goes ahead or whether it holds steady (or even reverses). If we get through that relatively unscathed then things look extremely promising.

It's been said though that the r number isn't going to be focussed on in decision making concentrating on other factors instead

 

[CheeseRolls]

The more the virus circulates during the vaccination period, the more chance there is that mutations arise that can beat the vaccine.

This is a really really critical time, because the virus will be meeting more and more vaccinated people as we roll the program out, and thus any mutations that allow it to get through the vaccines defences will multiply and its genetics selected for. The more infections there are, the more mutations will occur, more vaccinated people exposed and the more chance that a successful mutation will arise and become established. If we don't try and control that we'd be one big petri dish experiment. The ultimate risk is the vaccine becomes ineffective and drags us back into future lockdown. All for the sake of a few weeks now. We need to get numbers down as tiny as possible at soon as possible.

If we take a selfish view for a second. From the perspective of the UK, there is no inevitablitily that a variant can defeat the vaccine.

Only yesterday there was a South African variant cluster identified around Brentwood and everyone has been asked to come forward for testing, regardless of if they are expereincing symptoms. If the original variants are dampened down by the vaccine, these types of outbreaks will become easier to identfiy and a combination of local lockdowns and travel restrictions, CAN offer a huge amount of protection. This is going to remain a public health priority for decades to come, in terms of booster jabs, track and trace and global vaccination.

It doesn't mean we can't make progress against a list of UK priorities which I think are;

1 To Reduce critical hospitalisations.
=2 To reduce the impact on the economy.
=2 Return life to a degree of normality.

 

[A1X]

It's been said though that the r number isn't going to be focussed on in decision making concentrating on other factors instead

That's as maybe but it will be hard to justify further reopenings if cases are rising exponentially again

 

[Rugrat]

August: Foreign holidays

I really hope that part isn't correct

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

If we take a selfish view for a second. From the perspective of the UK, there is no inevitablitily that a variant can defeat the vaccine.

Only yesterday there was a South African variant cluster identified around Brentwood and everyone has been asked to come forward for testing, regardless of if they are expereincing symptoms. If the original variants are dampened down by the vaccine, these types of outbreaks will become easier to identfiy and a combination of local lockdowns and travel restrictions, CAN offer a huge amount of protection. This is going to remain a public health priority for decades to come, in terms of booster jabs, track and trace and global vaccination.

It doesn't mean we can't make progress against a list of UK priorities which I think are;

1 To Reduce critical hospitalisations.
=2 To reduce the impact on the economy.
=2 Return life to a degree of normality.

You're right there is no inevitability of a vaccine - busting variant and you're absolutely correct that the less virus there is, the easier it will be to contain new outbreaks of new variants.

But what there is right now is heightened risk of successful new variants arising, and that will continue until we have 60% or more of the entire population vaccinated. We're all suffering from this lockdown, but it is in part self inflicted by lifting restrictions too soon and I worry we do the same again. Taiwan, China, Australia and New Zealand are examples of countries that went hard lockdown to start, didn't lift until it was gone, and are all now going about their lives more or less normal today. When there was just 1 new case in Brisbane last month they put the city in a short hard lockdown, identified all the contacts, eradicated it and back to normal quickly. Our softly softly approach since the summer has led to two further lockdowns, a new UK variant spreading globally, more misery, continued uncertainty and heightened risk of more mutations.

We're already suffering, are two more months so hard right now? It will pass. I am hating this second lockdown, I will feel personally relieved if they lift restrictions today - but the scientist in me thinks its a mistake. We didn't lift first lockdown til new cases were under a hundred a day - we've still got 10,000 daily. Was it Whitty who said that however hard we think we have to lockdown, we should do it harder? Something like that anyway. Doing things tougher than we think we have to is the only approach that will get it under control.

 

[crodonilson]

You're right there is no inevitability of a vaccine - busting variant and you're absolutely correct that the less virus there is, the easier it will be to contain new outbreaks of new variants.

But what there is right now is heightened risk of successful new variants arising, and that will continue until we have 60% or more of the entire population vaccinated. We're all suffering from this lockdown, but it is in part self inflicted by lifting restrictions too soon and I worry we do the same again. Taiwan, China, Australia and New Zealand are examples of countries that went hard lockdown to start, didn't lift until it was gone, and are all now going about their lives more or less normal today. When there was just 1 new case in Brisbane last month they put the city in a short hard lockdown, identified all the contacts, eradicated it and back to normal quickly. Our softly softly approach since the summer has led to two further lockdowns, a new UK variant spreading globally, more misery, continued uncertainty and heightened risk of more mutations.

We're already suffering, are two more months so hard right now? It will pass. I am hating this second lockdown, I will feel personally relieved if they lift restrictions today - but the scientist in me thinks its a mistake. We didn't lift first lockdown til new cases were under a hundred a day - we've still got 10,000 daily. Was it Whitty who said that however hard we think we have to lockdown, we should do it harder? Something like that anyway. Doing things tougher than we think we have to is the only approach that will get it under control.

Totally agree and I have long advocated for a harsher longer lockdown, this lockdown compared to the first lockdown is poor, espite that we have seen substantial improvements in a fairly rapid decline in all the key metrics. In hindsight though with a proper lockdown, with places of worship closed, all those originally on furlough and working from home doing the same again, only children of key workers in schools, proper social distancing in supermarkets, we would have driven down the number of cases and hospitalisations even further than they are now. We are however for the first time since early summer last year winning the battle against covid, and the extra incentive this time is we could now permanently win the battle. This lockdown has been tough for many people I appreciate that but with the changing of the seasons, longer days better weather and the improving data I think we can and should carry on this lockdown for a little while longer yet, I only hope this big bang return of schools on 8th March does not tilt the odds back in favour of the virus and we end up back to square one.

 

[CheeseRolls]

You're right there is no inevitability of a vaccine - busting variant and you're absolutely correct that the less virus there is, the easier it will be to contain new outbreaks of new variants.

But what there is right now is heightened risk of successful new variants arising, and that will continue until we have 60% or more of the entire population vaccinated. We're all suffering from this lockdown, but it is in part self inflicted by lifting restrictions too soon and I worry we do the same again. Taiwan, China, Australia and New Zealand are examples of countries that went hard lockdown to start, didn't lift until it was gone, and are all now going about their lives more or less normal today. When there was just 1 new case in Brisbane last month they put the city in a short hard lockdown, identified all the contacts, eradicated it and back to normal quickly. Our softly softly approach since the summer has led to two further lockdowns, a new UK variant spreading globally, more misery, continued uncertainty and heightened risk of more mutations.

We're already suffering, are two more months so hard right now? It will pass. I am hating this second lockdown, I will feel personally relieved if they lift restrictions today - but the scientist in me thinks its a mistake. We didn't lift first lockdown til new cases were under a hundred a day - we've still got 10,000 daily. Was it Whitty who said that however hard we think we have to lockdown, we should do it harder? Something like that anyway. Doing things tougher than we think we have to is the only approach that will get it under control.

and I agree entirely with your sentiment here.

I can't help but feel the Kent variant was successful in spreading as school children were far more susceptible to catching and spreading it. I want the schools open and life back to normal, but am not convinced that the timing is right and the correct controls are in place to prevent a rapid rise in infections.
[MENTION=29976]dsr-burnley[/MENTION] made a valid point, about the risk of new variants. If you take the perspective that a variant can appear anywhere in the world, where infection is not under control. Whatever the UK does or doesn't do, makes little difference to the risk.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

I really want to call you a selfish cnnt, but after 12 months of this shit I understand where you are coming from.

I would just like to put on record my thanks to all those that have followed the rules to help the old and vulnerable - thank you!

This.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

and I agree entirely with your sentiment here.

I can't help but feel the Kent variant was successful in spreading as school children were far more susceptible to catching and spreading it. I want the schools open and life back to normal, but am not convinced that the timing is right and the correct controls are in place to prevent a rapid rise in infections.
[MENTION=29976]dsr-burnley[/MENTION] made a valid point, about the risk of new variants. If you take the perspective that a variant can appear anywhere in the world, where infection is not under control. Whatever the UK does or doesn't do, makes little difference to the risk.

It is a valid point. But although we can't control what other countries do, we can set an example and take the lead. We are ahead of most of the world in vaccine roll out after all. Just because an anti - vaccine variant might arise somewhere else in the world doesn't mean we should shrug our shoulders at the risk or avoid doing something that could lesson the risk. Because that's what it is, risk. The more countries take that risk, the higher the odds that it happens somewhere in the world.

Secondly, the country in which that variant arises will be the hardest hit by it - every other country will have the gift of time - time to close borders to that nation, time to step up testing for that variant, time to develop and administer a new vaccine. Just like we're doing with the South African variant. The Kent variant isn't spreading in those countries I mentioned earlier.

And finally, there isn't the risk of an anti vaccine variant arising in most countries today. But there is in England. The real risk of anti - vaccine mutations will arise when there are a lot of people vaccinated - which makes sense as this is when the selection pressures are highest. When just 1% of people are vaccinated, the original virus can breeze along happily infecting the rest. When 90% are vaccinated, the virus struggles to transmit at all, let alone allow useful mutations to spread. But when a third to a half are vaccinated, you have both a lot of virus transmission and high selection pressures, perfect for effective mutations to both arise and become established. Do we want to be the guinea pigs for the rest of the world to learn from and understand how to tweak the vaccine?

 

[mwrpoole]

and I agree entirely with your sentiment here.

I can't help but feel the Kent variant was successful in spreading as school children were far more susceptible to catching and spreading it. I want the schools open and life back to normal, but am not convinced that the timing is right and the correct controls are in place to prevent a rapid rise in infections.
[MENTION=29976]dsr-burnley[/MENTION] made a valid point, about the risk of new variants. If you take the perspective that a variant can appear anywhere in the world, where infection is not under control. Whatever the UK does or doesn't do, makes little difference to the risk.

I think the shops being open and in particular shopping centres, was a major factor in the spread of the Kent Variant. Living in Kent I know a few people who work at Bluewater and they will tell you that for the weeks leading up to Xmas before shops were closed down the place was rammed. You had to wear a mask to get in, but once on the concourse masks came off and only back on as you went in & out of shops. No coincidence that the area's surrounding Bluewater really spiked fast, and following close behind was Lakeside and the surrounding area's in Essex. It really did seem that as pubs & restaurants were closed people went shopping instead!