[Football] Relegation points total 2018/19...?

[erkan]

Current table is pretty remarkable.

There are 8 teams on target for 31pts or fewer. The bottom two are both on target for tiny 12pt totals and the next two for only 19pts.

They can't all "pick up" and improve on their current point gathering rates...

It would be quite surprising now if 31pts weren't enough to stay up this season.

 

[Seasider78]

It’s the goal difference of the bottom 4 that is so poor this season Fulham have only conceded less than 2 goals in one game and 3 of bottom 4 have conceded more than 14 goals from their opening 10 games.

This season have a feeling there will be fewer teams in the mix come the end of the season than we usually see

 

[dazzer6666]

Could be as low as 32/33 I reckon. Can’t see Hudds or Cardiff getting to that number, and likely at least one other (Saints, Fulham or Newcastle on current form) won’t make it.

Won’t be anywhere near 40 needed.

 

[Machiavelli]

Current table is pretty remarkable.

There are 8 teams on target for 31pts or fewer. The bottom two are both on target for tiny 12pt totals and the next two for only 19pts.

They can't all "pick up" and improve on their current point gathering rates...

It would be quite surprising now if 31pts weren't enough to stay up this season.

Wow. I was expecting this thread to be full of the misery-guts who insists that we'll need 40 points to stay up. Purely on the basis that it's a round figure, and ignoring the fact that the average for staying up is around 36 points over the past decade. I suspect the figure will be a tad lower than that average, on the basis that the top six are so strong that they will take more points off the remainder. But 31 looks as though things have swung in the other direction. For some, at least. I'll have a flutter with you that survival will require more than 31, with REMF taking the winnings. You name a price, and if it's in my range, I'll match it.

 

[CaptainDaveUK]

Another reason to be optimistic, in the last three games we've accumulated over 1/4 of the points needed for survival. In terms of ensuring our Premier League status, that is a massive achievement.

 

[crookie]

Another reason to be optimistic, in the last three games we've accumulated over 1/4 of the points needed for survival. In terms of ensuring our Premier League status, that is a massive achievement.

Indeed, the bottom 4 would bite your hand off for a run of 3 1-0 hard fought wins. This run of results is absolutely massive in the scheme of things

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[Ernest]

Going to be at least 2 clubs getting nowhere near 30 points as it is

 

[Perkino]

There are several very poor sides one league this season. I'd like to see Southampton, Crystal Palace and Newcastle get relegated as that would leave Huddersfield, Cardiff and Fulham in the premier league and I think they'll struggle to recruit and improve compared to the others

 

[erkan]

Wow. I was expecting this thread to be full of the misery-guts who insists that we'll need 40 points to stay up. Purely on the basis that it's a round figure, and ignoring the fact that the average for staying up is around 36 points over the past decade. I suspect the figure will be a tad lower than that average, on the basis that the top six are so strong that they will take more points off the remainder. But 31 looks as though things have swung in the other direction. For some, at least. I'll have a flutter with you that survival will require more than 31, with REMF taking the winnings. You name a price, and if it's in my range, I'll match it.

Sorry I can't take on your bet (an avenue of "pleasure" that closed many years ago for me...)...

Sporting Index agree with you that 4th bottom will probably be a tad higher than 31pts.

I'm not sure they're right. I can't see much downside to selling Cardiff + Huddersfield at 54.5pts with them...

 

[Deleted member 18477]

I'm usually cautious when it comes to predictions as a few injuries here and there can cripple a team, especially say if we lost Murray, Ryan or Duffy/Dunk for an extended period.

However as others have said, it's looking likely that 31 points will be enough. We could easily be safe by Xmas if we pick up another couple of wins and draws beforehand.

FA cup run then?

 

[lizard]

33/34 for me.

 

[The Maharajah of Sydney]

Spread Markets have us at around 44pts






Market after first 2 games - Fulham have crashed, fallen 10pts in 8 games.

 

[Goldstone1976]

I think some of the top clubs will start to drop points, leaving City as the clear leaders by around Xmas. Then, in Jan-Mar some of the current top clubs will start dropping points to the bottom clubs as they give up on chasing City. Thus - 35 points to be 17th.

 

[Perkino]

Spread Markets have us at around 44pts


View attachment 101730



Market after first 2 games - Fulham have crashed, fallen 10pts in 8 games.

View attachment 101731

Considering how difficult our first 10 games have been 1.4 points per game is our current rate. If we maintain that we will have over 50 points

 

[nwgull]

I think some of the top clubs will start to drop points, leaving City as the clear leaders by around Xmas. Then, in Jan-Mar some of the current top clubs will start dropping points to the bottom clubs as they give up on chasing City. Thus - 35 points to be 17th.

I don't think it'll be that much. 34 points (or 33 and a respectable GD) would've been enough for 17th last season, and at the same stage the bottom four clubs had 8, 8, 7 and 4 points. This year there are eight teams with 8 points or fewer, and the bottom four have only 5, 5, 3 and 3 points. Out of those 4, the only team I can see averaging over a point a game for the next 28 would be Newcastle, and even that's going to take some turn around.

I wouldn't bet against the bottom three all finishing on <30.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Last season I felt 36 would be enough, this season I feel 32 will be the magic number, and the number we hit away at Palace on the 9th March!

 

[Paul Reids Sock]

I always have a horrible feeling that this is the sort of thread that will be bounced by Palace fans in May ...

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Agreed, when we've just missed out on the Europa League (joke). Yes, let's not shout too loud until we've got safe(r)

 

[Mackenzie]

34 this season.

 

[spence]

Spread Markets have us at around 44pts


View attachment 101730



Market after first 2 games - Fulham have crashed, fallen 10pts in 8 games.

View attachment 101731

44pts would see us finish around 10th with a decent GD. Worth roughly an extra 10 million to us going by last years figures. That would be brilliant.