[Albion] Relegation Odds

[casbom]

Be interesting what your prediction was last season.

Hi Spence, I thought we would stay up last year as I thought there were worse teams than us. I think I had Hudders, Swansea and Stoke to go down.

As others have said, it's going to be a lot tougher this year with the quality that has come up, and those who have had a close shave last year will be spending big.

However I guess it'll be the same every year with at least 10 sides always in the relegation mix, at least it's not going to be dull!

 

[Pantani]

I have to say I find some of the odds a bit, well odd.

As an occasional better I find Wolves at 6/1 and Sompey at 9/1 to be relegated very tempting. Whack a tenner on and cash out when it’s all gone tits up at Christmas? Very tempting.

This, I would add Leicester in to that mix at 14-1. Mahrez leaving, rest of the team massively mediocre bar Vardy, one long term injury to Vardy and a bad managerial appointment and it could well go tits up. Last team to replace Puel nearly paid the price, maybe Leicester will fall into the same trap. Ultimately, they will not get relegated but an early cash out could turn a decent profit.

 

[Weststander]

In a league containing West Ham, palace, Bournemouth, Watford, Mark Hughes led Southampton, Newcastle, Huddersfield and 3 new teams, I wouldn't underestimate the power of stupidity.

I disagree about Palace. Finally, after a small army of managers, they’ve found a good one, and at his age Hodgson will be there until he retires. They’ll be comfortably mid table.

Unless they sell Zaha!

 

[Weststander]

It's not about getting cocky. Stoke bought expensive rubbish on high wages that trashed team morale, while Southampton sold too many good players and it caught up with them.

Provided you continue to recruit well and are diligent in the transfer market you should always survive, the 'X' Factor being if the manager somehow loses the players.

Hughton was blessed with great club men in Sidwell, Hemed, Hunemeier, Rosenior and Baldock who didn't whinge but were invariably benched. As we upgrade we start acquiring players used to starting in Europe's top leagues and so the likelihood of players becoming upset increases. If we have more talent them he has to let those players show it.

So do you think we’ll be part of the relegation mix for the bulk of the season or not?

 

[Easy 10]

I think much like the season we've just had, we'll certainly spend the whole of the season looking over our shoulders, but I reckon we'll have enough about us to steer clear of getting wrapped up in a serious bunfight. We've already strengthened the squad and no doubt theres more to come, so assuming there are no major unexpected departures (which seems unlikely), we're in a good position to push on and improve on last season. Most of the players, particularly the new foreign signings, have now had the benefit of a years experience at this level, so the PL will hold no surprises for them.

The squad is settled and already nicely balanced, just a handful of shrewd signings will give us that strength in depth. I see no reason why we can't improve on last seasons 40 points.

 

[chucky1973]

all 3 sides that went up with us stayed up, the 3 coming up now are arguably better prepared due to financial clout over what us and Hudders had, so based upon that, all three should stay up. That leaves 3 from the likes of B/mouth, Hudders, Brighton, Hammers, Palace, Soton and Watford to fill the bottom 3 and from them, Hammers, Palace and Soton will have enough to be top 14 leaving the others to fight it out, so a very very tough season, harder than this year.

 

[Stat Brother]

I disagree about Palace. Finally, after a small army of managers, they’ve found a good one, and at his age Hodgson will be there until he retires. They’ll be comfortably mid table.

Unless they sell Zaha!

That's not really my point.
A point that was, as usual, made better elsewhere, in this case [MENTION=258]Pavilionaire[/MENTION].

Perhaps Parish and Not So have lucked into a beneficial situation but there's no guarantee they won't do something incredible stupid which will blow the whole thing up, just because they saw something shiny.

The Albion lucked into Hughton, the hierarchy know they are onto a winner, we know dynamite won't remove him from the dug out.

If the Albion were to be relegated because everybody was better, then c'est la vie.
I'd just be very surprised if the Albion were relegated while teams x, y, & z (and probably v & w as well) seemingly did everything in their power to fail.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

Your post was not doom and gloom, but a reasoned explanation as to each clubs prospects. For example, Wolves and Fulham both have atttributes to survive. Plus they can improve too this summer with £100m plus of additional income.

CH would be the first to admit that we are very much part of the (circa 10 clubs) relegation mix 2018/19.

The moment a club of Brighton's size gets cocky, there's a danger of doing a Stoke or Southampton and having a stinker of a season relative to resources and the fans sense of entitlement.

Every draw and win next season will have to be hard fought. For example, Wolves and Fulham will be no pushovers home and away for the Albion. It's the nature of the PL beast.

I disagree, a reasoned explanation would have highlighted the significant benefits Brighton have, to lump them as battling for the 3rd relegation spot with one other team, disregarding the other clubs that will struggle strikes of glass half empty where we're concerned in my opinion

 

[Easy 10]

all 3 sides that went up with us stayed up, the 3 coming up now are arguably better prepared due to financial clout over what us and Hudders had, so based upon that, all three should stay up. That leaves 3 from the likes of B/mouth, Hudders, Brighton, Hammers, Palace, Soton and Watford to fill the bottom 3 and from them, Hammers, Palace and Soton will have enough to be top 14 leaving the others to fight it out, so a very very tough season, harder than this year.

Whatever league we are in, this seems to get repeated every single year. We'd apparently "blown our chance" in 2016, it was going to be much harder because Newcastle, Naarch and Villa would all be challenging to go back up, whilst Derby, Hull, Fulham and Massive would strengthen, etc etc.

Whaddya know. It wasn't any harder at all. Certainly wasn't easy, it never is. But it wasn't any harder than the previous season.

 

[piersa]

Watford will struggle next season, unless they strengthen significantly.

 

[Lady Whistledown]

I disagree about Palace. Finally, after a small army of managers, they’ve found a good one, and at his age Hodgson will be there until he retires. They’ll be comfortably mid table.

Unless they sell Zaha!

They won't sell him. He's paid well enough to maintain his lifestyle (and, importantly, that of his crew of London hangers-on), he loves being a big fish in a small pond, and most importantly, he's already failed once at a big club: he's afraid to fail again. Much easier to stay at Palace, where he could fail to score all season, pick up two yellow cards for diving in the first ten minutes of their opening game, and issue a series of hate-filled tweets viciously insulting the Queen, Kylie and Sir David Attenborough, and the Always Ultras would still worship the ground he falls....sorry....walks...on.

For what it's worth, I think we start the same as we did last season. Yes, there's a year's experience, but the same applies to other teams with the exception of the prompted sides. Wolves will spank billions on players, Fulham should have the nous to compete well. It's Cardiff who will inevitably be everybody's clear favourites to go down.

We could quite easily have second season syndrome however, so it's absolutely key that the players regain their focus quickly once they're back, and Hughton keeps them on track.

 

[lancyclaret]

What if he gets injured again? Eggs and baskets spring to mind. They might not be lucky enough to pull themselves out of such a mess left by his abscence next season.

Shame Real Madrid aren't in the PL. Ramos could do a job on Zaha.

 

[Pavilionaire]

So do you think we’ll be part of the relegation mix for the bulk of the season or not?

Right now my expectation is that we will finish between 11th -14th and we'll do a bit better than last season.

I don't think that we'll spend much time in the bottom 3 (unless our early handful of matches are predominantly against Top 6 sides).

So yes - technically - we'll be in the relegation mix although what we're really talking about here is the more specific "relegation dogfight" that affects the bottom 4 or 5 sides. I see Huddersfield, Cardiff and Watford as clearly more vulnerable than the rest but there are always one or two regulars that lose their way - possibly Bournemouth.

 

[chucky1973]

Whatever league we are in, this seems to get repeated every single year. We'd apparently "blown our chance" in 2016, it was going to be much harder because Newcastle, Naarch and Villa would all be challenging to go back up, whilst Derby, Hull, Fulham and Massive would strengthen, etc etc.

Whaddya know. It wasn't any harder at all. Certainly wasn't easy, it never is. But it wasn't any harder than the previous season.

I actually think we will go from strength to strength and grow into the prem and be a long term club, I was just saying it wont get easier having had a year in the premier. its gonna be another great season and no doubt have it challenges and tough times, but I think we will be safe for a long time to come.

 

[Weststander]

The markets don't particularly rate plucky old Brighton.

 

[lizard]

The markets don't particularly rate plucky old Brighton.

View attachment 99580

Like we care what all the other numptys think!

Also, you best charge your iPad soon.

 

[Weststander]

After just 1/76th of the season, the markets have now shortened our relegation odds from 3/1 to 5/2.

Talk about reactive.

 

[BrickTamland]

Lump on now!

 

[DumLum]

Every other pundit I saw tipped us to go down.

 

[Weststander]

Lump on now!

Insurance bet of £200 will slightly sweeten the **** next May.