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[Football] Relegation Odds 21/22 Season
- Thread starter The Maharajah of Sydney
- Start date
Remind me a bit of us last season. Pretty football but is it really gonna be that effective?
Yes they look better but remains to be seen whether the results will be better. They will have enough to stay up though.
When , not if , they try and play expansive against us it will play right into our hands. Potter is a much better manager than viera.
We will probably get stuffed now !!!
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SIMMO SAYS
Well-known member
Nobody cares what you do. You don't support my club.
The way you follow me around it does seem like you care a bit.
SIMMO SAYS
Well-known member
You don’t speak for me.
[MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION] talks a lot of sense ( most of the time), and I’d rather read his posts on football than a lot of others on here.
And I’m still laughing at the photos of the state of his flat.
I'm really annoyed I didn't lay Brentford for relegation before the season started. I knew they'd be alright and their exchange odds are now 6.0/6.2 (5/1) when I think they started at around 2.0 (evens). I'm equally annoyed I didn't back Norwich to go down. They were about 2.2 and have come in to 1.43 now that it is obvious they are once again woefully out of their depth.
I don't see the point of backing Brighton for relegation. We are 40/1 for a reason, and that reason is that we won't be troubling the relegation spots this year. We are 14 places higher and have 10 points and more than Newcastle who are 3rd from bottom. Even if we do what Southampton did last season and collapse dramatically, we'll still comfortably avoid relegation just as they did.
I don't see the point of backing Brighton for relegation. We are 40/1 for a reason, and that reason is that we won't be troubling the relegation spots this year. We are 14 places higher and have 10 points and more than Newcastle who are 3rd from bottom. Even if we do what Southampton did last season and collapse dramatically, we'll still comfortably avoid relegation just as they did.
Good for you as you only appear to be here to reply to my posts.
You don't speak for me either. Absolutely pointless post.
Richy_Seagull
Well-known member
What a totally pointless post.
SIMMO SAYS
Well-known member
You don’t speak for me.
[MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION] talks a lot of sense ( most of the time), and I’d rather read his posts on football than a lot of others on here.
And I’m still laughing at the photos of the state of his flat.
Fairy nuff you care about the fake swede.
Personally I find someone that looks up my entire posting history a bit creepy.
Each to their own.
SIMMO SAYS
Well-known member
We are now 45/1 for relegation and even better than West Ham !
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation
https://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation
Live by the sea
Well-known member
- Oct 21, 2016
- 4,718
You don’t speak for me.
[MENTION=38333]Swansman[/MENTION] talks a lot of sense ( most of the time), and I’d rather read his posts on football than a lot of others on here.
And I’m still laughing at the photos of the state of his flat.
Swansman talks a lot of sense ! I can only presume you are being sarcastic .
rogersix
Well-known member
- Jan 18, 2014
- 8,202
you know nowt about football, mac
Dave Fishwick
Well-known member
I know it seems a bit backward but you can't, or don't judge the prematch betting based on the actual outcome of the match, the same way that the odds on rolling a dice and getting a six aren't silly odds if you roll and get a one.
the odds you see prematch are a culmination of the bookies doing an infinite number of simulations, each odd represents the probability of each result happening, every outcome has its own chance.
the final result is only one "simulation" but it is the one that counts for the league table.
you can analyse what the betting odds were at time of KO and it will become apparent where the bookies models have each team rated, this was no more evident than in our (Brighton's) own odds last season where the league table we were 17th for a long period and yet the bookies would have us favourites against sides much higher up in the table
this is what I mean about looking at Palace's match prices to see how the bookies rate them
looking into the future we can see the books already have Palace at 11/4 next week at home to Leicester, we can compare that to the 17/10 that we just went off at home to the same team, thats such a big difference, ergo the only conclusion has to be that at the moment, the books think Brighton are a superior side, by that margin, ergo Brighton must be favourites to win (not necessarily that they will, or even get a result, just that they have to be favourites in the bookies eyes)
another example
Brighton went off 2.59 away to Burnley (decimal odds now!)
Leeds went off 2.30 away to Burnley
so if this was consistent, you would see Leeds going off shorter prices in their similar games
Brighton 2.60 at home to Everton
Leeds 2.25 at home to Everton
and that's ignoring the two teams respective starts, you have to take that out of the equation.
The way to beat the books is perhaps to be quicker than them on when a team is hugely on the up, or on the way down, as they do take time to give teams a massive re-rate
McTavish
Well-known member
- Nov 5, 2014
- 1,587
Bookies are largely unconcerned about the actual probability of the outcome of the match, they are interested in having a balanced book so that they make money whatever the outcome. What they are interested in is what their customers think the outcome of the match will be.
For example: if Man U play Burnley, because Man U have many more fans who tend to back a win, the initial Burnley odds will be longer than for Leicester v Burnley even if the probability from the notional simulations were exactly the same (and they clearly don't do infinite simulations or they would never finish).
nwgull
Well-known member
I’m fairly sure it’s far more simple than that and the odds are just market driven to ensure the bookies make a profit whatever the outcome. It’s why England are always terrible value for any Euros or World Cup.
I think Tony Bloom’s betting consultancy do all the stuff that you mention though to see if a bet is good value.
Dave Fishwick
Well-known member
not true - I may have some personal experience and background in this field
20 years ago you would have been right, however now you have so many matches from around the world at any one time, the books just want to be the "correct price", and are happy to stand a relative amount at that price, knowing that they will win over time due to variance.
What I am saying is that the bookies and their sophisticated models are much more accurate at rating teams and their abilities than you or I can with simple eye test. And that we can get a glimpse into what these models are thinking by analysing the odds at kickoff.