TSB
Captain Hindsight
What do you think?
I'm saying No.
I'm saying No.
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"Recession likely" says tv...
- Thread starter TSB
- Start date
bristolseagull
Well-known member
i'm saying yes
clippedgull
Hotdogs, extra onions
Think we are due one.
BRIGHT ON Q
Well-known member
- Jul 5, 2003
- 9,248
I think we are heading that way.
Barrel of Fun
Abort, retry, fail
Recessions are helped along by the self-fulfilling prophecy and there have been many scares of late to worry even the bravest of investors.
The Labour boom has been based on over spending (public and government) so we were bound to come a cropper at some point. I am saying yes.
The Labour boom has been based on over spending (public and government) so we were bound to come a cropper at some point. I am saying yes.
steward 433
Back and better
Without a doubt our American side of the business has been hit hard and it's heading our way 
Guy Fawkes
The voice of treason
- Sep 29, 2007
- 8,300
there will be a recession, the only reason we didn't had one the last time ther was a world recession was because of the cheap loans and credit cards deals + rising house prices to borrow against,
now, with the housing market prices over inflated, and banks tightening up on loans and credit, plus higher fuel and food prices, and no Government budget surplus as there was last time, then there will be a recession sooner rather than later
now, with the housing market prices over inflated, and banks tightening up on loans and credit, plus higher fuel and food prices, and no Government budget surplus as there was last time, then there will be a recession sooner rather than later
Freddie Goodwin.
Well-known member
Must be. People have been spending money they haven't got.
Cian
Well-known member
My employer pulled out of the US in the middle of last year (they're Irish based), but still growing at home and in the UK/Germany; plus the company actually did surprisingly well during the last downturn and indeed the previous recession - people get sicker when they're poorer.
Gully
Monkey in a seagull suit.
I think this is too difficult to call, last autumn I was certain that we were heading for a recession but now I am not so sure. I think that things will be difficult this year but there are many factors involved and it really could go either way.
ben andrews' girlfriend
Nurse Laura
I don't think there'll be an actual recession
JJ McClure
Go Jags
Indeed, they just seem to love trying to spred doom and gloom at the moment. If there is a bagel it will partly be down to them.
Gully
Monkey in a seagull suit.
I think the true definition may be something to do with the number of consecutive quarters with negative growth, but it is a long time ago that I passed my Economics O/Level, sure we must have someone on here who knows the exact definition.
terrymendez
New member
Most certainly - bring it on and stop chatting about it.
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,031
i think a recession is two quaters of negative growth. be carefull of some of the Daily Housprice stories on economy, they often portray slowing growth as no growth.
I think its too close to call. BoE avoided it last time by setting the rates right but this time they seem too open to political/media manipultion, lowering rates as inflation rises which could lead to a sudden need to raise rates down the line just at the wrong time. Meanwhile this govenrment has greatly expanded employment in the public sector so its vital they keep the wage inflation down otherwise they'll have to raise taxes to cover, again at abad time to do so. its all very tight.
I think its too close to call. BoE avoided it last time by setting the rates right but this time they seem too open to political/media manipultion, lowering rates as inflation rises which could lead to a sudden need to raise rates down the line just at the wrong time. Meanwhile this govenrment has greatly expanded employment in the public sector so its vital they keep the wage inflation down otherwise they'll have to raise taxes to cover, again at abad time to do so. its all very tight.
terrymendez
New member
Gully
Monkey in a seagull suit.
What we are really talking about is macro economics, the situation is so finely balanced that a very small change in a number of factors could be enough to push us into recession.
The key factors are certainly interest rates and inflation but also things like fuel prices, wage inflation and the value of the pound against the dollar/euro. I can't see the BoE taking the same course of action with interest rates as the Fed did in the USA, where they really were in a hole and tried shock treatment, a bit like trying to use a defibrilator to get someones heart going again.
There does appear to be a genuine desire to reduce interest rates in the UK, they were really raised in the first place to try and bring the economy under control and deter people from taking credit. This is another difficult factor to balance, if borrowing is too expensive then people are less inclined to take out loans for luxury items and the economy slows down too much, there was evidence of this prior to the recent cut.
You are of course absolutely right about the Govt keeping down pay raises in the public sector, trying to put pressure on the private sector to do likewise and thus reducing another inflationary pressure.
The key factors are certainly interest rates and inflation but also things like fuel prices, wage inflation and the value of the pound against the dollar/euro. I can't see the BoE taking the same course of action with interest rates as the Fed did in the USA, where they really were in a hole and tried shock treatment, a bit like trying to use a defibrilator to get someones heart going again.
There does appear to be a genuine desire to reduce interest rates in the UK, they were really raised in the first place to try and bring the economy under control and deter people from taking credit. This is another difficult factor to balance, if borrowing is too expensive then people are less inclined to take out loans for luxury items and the economy slows down too much, there was evidence of this prior to the recent cut.
You are of course absolutely right about the Govt keeping down pay raises in the public sector, trying to put pressure on the private sector to do likewise and thus reducing another inflationary pressure.