Reccession ..... Calm Down & Carry On

[Lokki 7]

all staged, pull the money out of circulation, create economic doom, and a few get very rich....this is the way it has always been since central banks - anyone that says otherwise has not researched the trends and history.

one big scam.

A few questions if I may, as I'd like to understand what you mean here.

1) What is "staged"? The economic slow down?
2) Who staged it?
3) How was money "pulled out of circulation"? I thought low interest rates and quantatative easing had the opposite effect?
4) Who is getting rich and how?
5) What trends/history do I need to research in order to understand your post.

Thanks.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

How odd it is that most SMEs you speak to are saying it's not too bad or it's going really well, talk to the establishment and they'll tell you we're all f**ked, how queer?

Personally our businesses have increased turnover, maintained or improved profitablity and have created 19 jobs in two years ... recession can always be used as an excuse for shedding deadwood, poor mangement or to take "value" of the balance sheet that shouldn't have been there in the first place, which would "possibly" be more likely to happen in FTSE companies than the "honourable" small businessman.

 

[brunswick]

A few questions if I may, as I'd like to understand what you mean here.

1) What is "staged"? The economic slow down?
2) Who staged it?
3) How was money "pulled out of circulation"? I thought low interest rates and quantatative easing had the opposite effect?
4) Who is getting rich and how?
5) What trends/history do I need to research in order to understand your post.

Thanks.

the internet has lots of info on the Rothschilds and central banks, but a simple condensed funny version is here....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGk5ioEXlIM&feature=fvst

 

[Biscuit]

Even after that little stunt with the petrol pumps? When a tory peer let something slip which caused billions to be spent that otherwise wouldn't have the weekend before GDP is calculated?

We are in trouble then.

Maybe Clegg and Cameron can come up with something more inventive than cutting jobs and cutting back to work schemes.

 

[Aadam]

Even after that little stunt with the petrol pumps? When a tory peer let something slip which caused billions to be spent that otherwise wouldn't have the weekend before GDP is calculated?

We are in trouble then.

Maybe Clegg and Cameron can come up with something more inventive than cutting jobs and cutting back to work schemes.

My understanding was that the petrolgate stunt didn't actually put that much into our economy. £200m extra, at most I believe which is nothing. Primarily because a lot of the oil is offshore, not onshore. GDP is only measured on the goods produced within the UK, no?

 

[Butch Willykins]

How odd it is that most SMEs you speak to are saying it's not too bad or it's going really well, talk to the establishment and they'll tell you we're all f**ked, how queer?

Personally our businesses have increased turnover, maintained or improved profitablity and have created 19 jobs in two years ... recession can always be used as an excuse for shedding deadwood, poor mangement or to take "value" of the balance sheet that shouldn't have been there in the first place, which would "possibly" be more likely to happen in FTSE companies than the "honourable" small businessman.

I'll drink to that.

 

[sten_super]

My understanding was that the petrolgate stunt didn't actually put that much into our economy. £200m extra, at most I believe which is nothing. Primarily because a lot of the oil is offshore, not onshore. GDP is only measured on the goods produced within the UK, no?

If it was North Sea Oil, then it would be included in the accounts. However the issue is that there was no extra production - whatever was produced from the North Sea would have been included in the accounts anyway; the impact of the shortage would have been most likely that oil was imported to meet the extra demand, and any increase in GDP would have been simply from the slight increase in the amount of distribution required and the retail side when sold in petrol stations, both of which add only a small amount of value added (certainly once net of any taxes and subsidies).

 

[Biscuit]

My understanding was that the petrolgate stunt didn't actually put that much into our economy. £200m extra, at most I believe which is nothing. Primarily because a lot of the oil is offshore, not onshore. GDP is only measured on the goods produced within the UK, no?

It wasn't £200m. It was £748m, and that's what was going into the pot for that quarter alone. That has the potential to increase GDP by up to 0.2% for the quarter. That doesn't sound huge, but the hope was that would be enough to save us from a double-dip recession. It was a cheap trick and it's failed.

 

[sten_super]

It wasn't £200m. It was £748m, and that's what was going into the pot for that quarter alone. That has the potential to increase GDP by up to 0.2% for the quarter. That doesn't sound huge, but the hope was that would be enough to save us from a double-dip recession. It was a cheap trick and it's failed.

I'd say that in all likelihood it's impossible to tell whether it's had any impact or not from these numbers. The first estimate is based upon reporting of around 42% of total results from the quarter, and the later in the quarter you go the more sparse the real results are; it's basically largely guesswork.

In the retail sales data released last week it highlighted that fuel sales were up 4.2% in March compared to February; this contributed 0.3 percentage points towards the total increase of 1.8% (i.e. the month-on-month increase in retail sales would have been 1.5% without any change in fuel consumption). I find it hard to believe that such a small increase in sales (and that on a monthly basis) could have boosted GDP (measured on a quarterly basis) by any significant amount.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

The worrying thing is that only 30% of the cuts have actually been implemented at the moment.

 

[melias shoes]

Not really doom and gloom, if you think it is good, fine. I just predicted this a few weeks ago. Anyway it is becoming clearer by the day this government has royally f***ed it up.

NO.... the last government Royally f***ed it up......... you couldn't make it up.

 

[Simster]

the internet has lots of info on the Rothschilds and central banks, but a simple condensed funny version is here....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGk5ioEXlIM&feature=fvst

In other words "I haven't a clue but love a conspiracy theory, so here's a pointless video which I believe makes my point of view credible, but actually has the opposite impact"

Posting a YouTube video in lieu of reasoned argument is the equivalent of using crayola crayons to draw a stick man in your A level Art exam.

I hope this helps, only you come across as an utter simpleton.

 

[CorgiRegisteredFriend]

 

[Lokki 7]

the internet has lots of info on the Rothschilds and central banks, but a simple condensed funny version is here....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGk5ioEXlIM&feature=fvst

I appreciate you responding but unfortunately you have not answered any of the simple questions I asked you about your original post. It seems strange to me that someone with such an aggressive stance is eager to be controversial and yet reluctant to explain your potentialy interesting slant on the world economy.

I'm afraid to say that at the moment you come across as a well meaning but seriously misguided simpleton.

 

[brunswick]

A few questions if I may, as I'd like to understand what you mean here.

1) What is "staged"? The economic slow down?
2) Who staged it?
3) How was money "pulled out of circulation"? I thought low interest rates and quantatative easing had the opposite effect?
4) Who is getting rich and how?
5) What trends/history do I need to research in order to understand your post.

Thanks.

1 yes
2 central banks
3 giving less loans and other means e.g. in spain no cash allowed to be passed over 2.5k now.
4 central banks and investment wings by selling bad debt, and having inside info on the money game.
5 the great depression, and the film "margin call" which is a true tale of the 2009 crash started by wall street.

better?

 

[GreersElbow]

I think this has been blown out of proportion, a drop in GDP doesn't necessary indicate a recession, what you're hearing is called a "newspaper recession" in which any drop in GDP according to them instantly means recession.

The reality is, the economy is still in a flatline, the construction industry did however drop -3.2% last quarter, but the services industry actually grew by 0.2%. Certain sectors will decline, but others manage, that's not exactly a recession. What media tends to leave out of it is actually: employment; wholesale-retail sales; (although pointed out by ONS) industrial production and finally real-income. The ONS themselves said that we're not in a recession, GDP as a whole hasn't declined, just hasn't increased either.

I'm not a fan of the Tories, but the Treasury is correct, the EU is the biggest problem. 40% of our exports go to the EU, in which many nations are literally about to dip into recession, when demand their reduces, our businesses can't supply and lose money. What we probably could see is a deflation period, which will not be very good for our economy at all....

 

[GreersElbow]

NO.... the last government Royally f***ed it up......... you couldn't make it up.

Right, so they didn't manage the economy well. But that didn't stop the tories supporting their budgets, did it?

 

[BadFish]

1 yes
2 central banks
3 giving less loans and other means e.g. in spain no cash allowed to be passed over 2.5k now.
4 central banks and investment wings by selling bad debt, and having inside info on the money game.
5 the great depression, and the film "margin call" which is a true tale of the 2009 crash started by wall street.

better?

Inside job is also an interesting film about the current crash. I haven't seen margin call but i have just read a couple of good reviews and will give it a go.

 

[Lokki 7]

1 yes
2 central banks
3 giving less loans and other means e.g. in spain no cash allowed to be passed over 2.5k now.
4 central banks and investment wings by selling bad debt, and having inside info on the money game.
5 the great depression, and the film "margin call" which is a true tale of the 2009 crash started by wall street.

better?

Ok thanks, better than a cartoon.

1) / 2) Why would they do this? What do they have to gain?
3) Spain is not the cause of the global financial problems. Local Spanish banking practices are of minor consequence when compared to US QEI and QEII in terms of money circulation.
4) You have a point re investment banks re-packaging high risk loans and selling on to ill informed unsuspecting investors and institutions. I'm not so sure that central banks win by selling "bad debt". What do you mean by this?
5) Thanks for the examples, better than a cartoon but I wouldn't trust Hollywood's versions of events too much. It still doesn't explain your central bank conspiracy theories though.

 

[beorhthelm]

I think this has been blown out of proportion, a drop in GDP doesn't necessary indicate a recession, what you're hearing is called a "newspaper recession" in which any drop in GDP according to them instantly means recession.

The reality is, the economy is still in a flatline, the construction industry did however drop -3.2% last quarter, but the services industry actually grew by 0.2%.

i read service sector was 1.2%. from what i've read recently, and today, all other indicators point to improving economy. only the ONS numbers (and the OECD based on preliminary assement of ONS number) have read the tea leafs this way. -3% on construction is apparently being openly questioned by analysts asking if the ONS has done its sums right. they just dont see it, the contraction in consturction and apparently its notoriously under-reported. i read hear a few posters saying things are good, in construction too.

so at this point it looks like a "techincal" recession (an arbitary and self imposed term in the first place), it will be interesting to see in future if this is recorded as the recession that never was, as data is revised upwards. this is no defense of the governments policy, which seems to be treating deficit reduction as an end in itself not a means to an end, and has no idea on how to improve the economy while coming out with lots of Brownesque little tweeks and tinkering rather than a strategy.