Reason to be optimistic - goal difference

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

A lot of people seem to be a little cagey about our current position and quote last season (7 games, 16 points and then an implosion) as the reason to be cautious. Of course they are correct about the points total but I think it's worth looking at the goal difference too.

Generally I believe that goal difference is an indicator of longer term potential in a league. Of course there are exceptions, but for example, at this stage last season Southampton were on +10 and West Ham were on +8. They were leading the pack on goal difference. We were on +6 but declining from the week before.

This season Blackpool are +11 and we are +10 and improving. Not many others are anywhere close. This looks like a very good indicator to me that we're not performing like last year (all those last minute, odd goal, against the run-of-play wins).

I appreciate that this is not the only factor (Reading were on -1 after 7 games but weren't shipping many goals) but it's an indicator of strength that should give us confidence.

 

[beorhthelm]

i was noting this too. it cant always work, if you lose game 1-0 but win them 3-0 (didnt Huddersfield have a season like that and not make the top 2?) but it is a strong indication of strength.

 

[Uncle C]

Goals against must also be a good indicator.

 

[Beach Hut]

Although last season we had a reasonable goal difference that was wiped out very quickly. I think the goals conceded is more key to the current form.

 

[Deleted member 2719]

I have always looked a GD too and your right it is a good indicator and i really believe we will get promotion as long as Gus can keep everyone happy. He does seem to being a good job there so far, let's hope they all stay aboard on the good ship BHA as it is a great place to be at present and all will be rewarded.

 

[chimneys]

Goals against must also be a good indicator.

Doesn't tell us much:

Goals against is only 1 different (4 this, 5 last).

Goals scored not that different either (14 this, 11 last).

In terms of teams played, very similar. As of table yesterday morning the 5 wins we had were against those in 4th-8th bottom of league.

Similar quality last season in that we had played 2 top sides (Blackpool/Cardiff), with rest at best average.

Big differences are squad stronger this season, no Liverpool in cup distraction and next 2 games at home and very winnable.......

 

[kingcole]

The real difference with last season, is that now, we are 5 wins on the bounce where as last season, our form came earlier in those 7 games and we all knew we were expecting a defeat soon. The loss at Leicester last year was inevitable.

This season, we are playing well, and even in the games we did not win (Cardiff and Hull) we could be described as a little unlucky. Last season, with the exception of cardiff, we could be described as fortunate.

We don't need reminding that we were a goal down in our 1st game with 10 minutes to go and in our 2nd game at Pompey, it was then fluffing an injury time penalty that gave us all 3 points.

If we are 2-0 up at home after 60 minutes this year, can anyone seriously see us sqandering the lead (aka Blackpool and the treble sub)?

 

[Conkers]

The real test will be away to one of the top 3/4 teams.
If we can get something out of Leicester away on 23rd October then I'll start believing!

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

Using my patent "bossed the game" index (where 0 is awarded for a deserved defeat, 1 for a game that could have gone either way and 2 for a deserved win):

Last season:
1 Doncaster - late winner
1 Portsmouth - won by odd goal and they missed a pen
2 Cardiff - 3-1 and played well
1 Blackpool - drew having led 2-0
2 Peterborough - easy win T home - poor team
1 Bristol City - "winning without playing well" cliche game
Total BTG - 8

This season:
1 Hull - played well
1 Cardiff - did everything but win
2 Barnsley - smashed it
2 Burnley - comfortable away win
2 Sheff Wed - played off the park
1 Watford - should have taken our chances to relax
2 Millwall - easy win despite late loss of concentration
Total BTG - 11

We're playing a lot better this season with a bench that hasn't even flexed its muscles yet.

Edit: just seen kingcole's point above - this kind of backs that up.

 

[Acker79]

For me, highlighting last season's poor patch is more about not getting carried away, a cautionary tale of how irrelevant the current table is, than being negative.

Yes, we have so many reasons to be more positive about things now than at this point last season (shots per game, disciplinary record, performances, the order in which the points were won, how the results compare to the corresponding fixture from last season etc), but looking at how it fell away last year is about not becoming arrogant and believing promotion is practically sewn up, or heaping pressure on a team that is only 7 games into the season, has only faced a top half team twice and drew with one of them, and the other is now on the verge of the relegation zone.

 

[bn1&bn3 Albion]

This season I think Watford is the only game we may have been lucky with a win(should of taken our chances). Last season we had a lot of games where we rode our luck and won.

 

[grummitts gloves]

When you bring a quality keeper and fullbacks to the club, you can expect to be about 10 points better off just by not conceeding so many.

 

[Finchley Seagull]

When you bring a quality keeper and fullbacks to the club, you can expect to be about 10 points better off just by not conceeding so many.

As someone said in another thread, I think Kuszczak might have accounted for 5 of those already (1 v Cardiff, 2 v Watford and 2 v Millwall). The cautionary note I would put down is that it is a very strong league this year. There are a lot of teams who will fancy their chances of promotion and I don't think any team will be well clear. Having said that, we are top at the moment and you can't do anymore than that at this stage.

 

[severnside gull]

If we are 2-0 up at home after 60 minutes this year, can anyone seriously see us sqandering the lead (aka Blackpool and the treble sub)?

Careful now ..................... we came very close to doing just that yesterday.