Reading v QPR

[Peter Grummit]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38610024

 

[Stumpy Tim]

I was racking my brains re that too [emoji38]

Are you having a dig at me?

 

[Lady Whistledown]

Are you having a dig at me?

No, but I'm going to stealthily conceal one in the next couple of lines. See if you can spot it.

I'm going to Deepdale tomorrow, where apparently the Albion have a very poor record over the years. I hope we win. It feels like Preston have been something of a bogey side since they came back up to the Championship. I expect our fans to cheer the team heartily.


Did you find it?

 

[Stumpy Tim]

No, but I'm going to stealthily conceal one in the next couple of lines. See if you can spot it.

I'm going to Deepdale tomorrow, where apparently the Albion have a very poor record over the years. I hope we win. It feels like Preston have been something of a bogey side since they came back up to the Championship. I expect our fans to cheer the team heartily.


Did you find it?

You're bang out of order

 

[Rugrat]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/38610024

If Ding Dong failed the fit and proper test in September it's inconceivable to think he would pass it 3 months later.

Mind you, in the world of dementia and bungs who knows?

 

[Lady Whistledown]

You're bang out of order

Is that a cleverly disguised dig?

OUTSIDE. NOW.

 

[Munkfish]

My 2p:

The point is that the model says they are over-achieving based on what they should be getting, across the course of the season. So, they are either over-achieving the model because they have a high quality squad (ie: more clinical), or they are riding their luck. Historically they have hugely under-performed, so maybe they are owed this! Experimental-361 and many here think that it is luck - we will find out at the end of the season! Of course the model also shows us over-achieving since January last year, so either we are riding our luck as well, or we have good players.

Leicester are the aberration, which in my opinion actually reinforces the point that is was largely luck. Luck that the competition dropped the ball, lucky with injuries so their best players were consistently available and just in general they scored more goals than they were predicted to (based on their chances and the quality of those chances). This season shows them achieving pretty much exactly the goal difference that the model predicts - so they are no longer over-achieving, but achieving what they should be - and look at them.

Premier League long term trends:
https://experimental361.com/2016/12/29/premier-league-trends-28-dec-2016/

Championship long term trends:
https://experimental361.com/2016/12/29/championship-trends-28-dec-2016/

I dont disagree with stats and models. They have their place. But I dont like how its used to say this team are over performing in a certain way, when they have already proved they can achieve it. If they add players in January they could kick on much like we did last season but models cant predict that.

Either way nothing is a guarentee. Lets hope the Albion plod on as we are That way the form of any other team doesnt matter.

 

[Albion my Albion]

If we don't go up this year, we never will. The last 2 away games for us was daylight robbery. It cant go wrong this time Shirley.

That is a really dangullous statement!

 

[Albion my Albion]

To be honest they looked good against us at times, but Sam set us off with a wonder goal. Reading had more than enough chances, and defensively they were shocking.

Stockdale was cracking in that QPR tie too.

 

[Albion my Albion]

Germaloids, chaps. Germaloids.

Sounds like Germaloids was invented in Germany. Angela looks like a woman who has had a few painful arse moments.

 

[Iggle Piggle]

No, but I'm going to stealthily conceal one in the next couple of lines. See if you can spot it.

I'm going to Deepdale tomorrow, where apparently the Albion have a very poor record over the years. I hope we win. It feels like Preston have been something of a bogey side since they came back up to the Championship. I expect our fans to cheer the team heartily.


Did you find it?

Well it's the word 'Bogey' Obviously.FFS

 

[FatSuperman]

I dont disagree with stats and models. They have their place. But I dont like how its used to say this team are over performing in a certain way, when they have already proved they can achieve it. If they add players in January they could kick on much like we did last season but models cant predict that.

Either way nothing is a guarentee. Lets hope the Albion plod on as we are That way the form of any other team doesnt matter.

Well if they strengthen significantly then it may have a serious impact on the model, after all there are new elements at play! Like us last year, to a degree. I agree pretty much, tho the reason the models are useful 'in general' is to put some empirical evidence behind the performances. If you want he'd Derby today you'd say they likely won't win another game again, but it was one terrible performance, they might bounce back. The model, over the season so far, strips out those freak performances. Reading may well have a strong squad, they are certainly getting the results against the odds (bearing in mind the model is baselined across ALL teams in the league).

We'll see.

 

[Triggaaar]

I dont disagree with stats and models. They have their place.

Understood.

But I dont like how its used to say this team are over performing in a certain way, when they have already proved they can achieve it.

That doesn't make sense. That's like saying no team ever over or under performs, because they are where they are.

I agree that the stats/models can miss important aspects of a game, and exaggerate how much a team in over/under performing, but that doesn't mean there's no element of it.

If they add players in January they could kick on much like we did last season but models cant predict that.

Indeed. They also don't take into account a team that's got a new manager and turned their fortunes around. It's a tool to help make predictions, that's all.

 

[BeHereNow]

7 wins and 2 losses would probably see us up.

 

[Weststander]

Everything falling into place for TB's dream.

Reading hadn't played eye catching football all season IMO, but the form of Mcleary had got them over the line in many games. Luck evening itself out tonight. Don't want to see the snide thug Kermorgant make it to the PL.

Another major step taken tonight against our bogey club with an arrogant manager. The dream gets closer and reward for priceless TB.