Points required for survival?

[southstandandy]

Apologies but I'm bored this Sunday morning.

Decided to have a look back at the tables for the last few seasons to see what the going rate was to stay up :

2013-14 : 44 points Birmingham survive - Doncaster go down with 44 points but worse goal difference
2012-13 : 55 points (yikes!) Barnsley survive - Peterborough go down with 54 points
2011-12 : 48 points Barnsley survive - Portsmouth go down with 40 points
2010-11 : 48 points Doncaster survive - Preston North End go down with 42 points

Looking at previous history what realistically do you reckon we need to survive?

I was originally thinking of 11 more wins and 33 points giving us a total of 53 (I reckon we'd be pretty unlucky to go down with that).

I've now revised my own view down to maybe only 49/50 points (looking at the above) so that would only require 10 wins.

Still means we almost have to win every other game but it is achievable.

What does NSC reckon we need for survival in points terms and will we achieve it. My positive new year's prediction is YES we will. Here's hoping anyway! Starting with Fulham tomorrow!

 

[GolfingGull]

We need a change of direction, that's for sure.

 

[el_ciddy]

It's getting to the point where the next manager debate may be meaningless, unless it's Jesus.

 

[nwgull]

48 plus a not too bad goal difference should be enough this year. 12/13 was an exception; after 46 games there were only 13 points between the play offs and relegation!

 

[Steve Foster]

It's looking very difficult given that we have only won 3 games all season, we have the same players, so even with my crystal ball on, it's looking like League 1 for us next season. The Fulham game is crucial. Win that, we are back in the hunt. Lose it & other results don't go our way - I think we can put the second nail in the coffin. There does seem a bit of optimism on the Predictor though https://nortr3nixy.nimpr.uk/showthread.php?315244-**-Fulham-v-BHA-**-Score-Predictor

 

[CheeseRolls]

2012-13 was a real season of anyone beating anyone in the Championship. Whilst things may change to a certain extant in the second half of the season, there does seem to be a bigger quality gap between the top and bottom halves of the division, than was the case two seasons ago. The teams up to and including Birmingham all look vulnerable, as do Sheffield Wednesday, if they don't start scoring.

I would suggest 45-48 is quite possible but allowing for a safety margin, we should be looking at 48-50.

So with a target in half a season of 28-30 points, compared to a half season total of 20 points we would need to perform as well in the second half of the season as Bolton, Fulham and Birmingham have, in the first half of the season, to survive.

My glass is half full at this time.

 

[southstandandy]

If Bolton and Fulham can do it then so can we. With the right manager of course!

 

[sir albion]

Games will get harder now as we've played all the so called shite clubs at home and failed to beat any of them bar wigan i suppose.

 

[Machiavelli]

2012-13 was a real season of anyone beating anyone in the Championship. Whilst things may change to a certain extant in the second half of the season, there does seem to be a bigger quality gap between the top and bottom halves of the division, than was the case two seasons ago. The teams up to and including Birmingham all look vulnerable, as do Sheffield Wednesday, if they don't start scoring.

I would suggest 45-48 is quite possible but allowing for a safety margin, we should be looking at 48-50.

So with a target in half a season of 28-30 points, compared to a half season total of 20 points we would need to perform as well in the second half of the season as Bolton, Fulham and Birmingham have, in the first half of the season, to survive.

My glass is half full at this time.

I'm with you on virtually everything, but think I'd go for 43-46 as a range to stay up.

 

[Cowfold Seagull]

2012-13 was a real season of anyone beating anyone in the Championship. Whilst things may change to a certain extant in the second half of the season, there does seem to be a bigger quality gap between the top and bottom halves of the division, than was the case two seasons ago. The teams up to and including Birmingham all look vulnerable, as do Sheffield Wednesday, if they don't start scoring.

I would suggest 45-48 is quite possible but allowing for a safety margin, we should be looking at 48-50.

So with a target in half a season of 28-30 points, compared to a half season total of 20 points we would need to perform as well in the second half of the season as Bolton, Fulham and Birmingham have, in the first half of the season, to survive.

My glass is half full at this time.

Good post, l think you are absolutely right. 2012/13 was so much of an exception it's almost worth discounting it as a guide. As a general rule 50 points, (give or take) is around the number you need to survive, and let's face it, two or three wins can change everything!

 

[Crispy Ambulance]

Games will get harder now as we've played all the so called shite clubs at home and failed to beat any of them bar wigan i suppose.

This. In bucketloads.

 

[perseus]

Does it Move? (Engineer and Barmaids answer to a half full glass.)

2012-13 was a real season of anyone beating anyone in the Championship. Whilst things may change to a certain extant in the second half of the season, there does seem to be a bigger quality gap between the top and bottom halves of the division, than was the case two seasons ago. The teams up to and including Birmingham all look vulnerable, as do Sheffield Wednesday, if they don't start scoring.

I would suggest 45-48 is quite possible but allowing for a safety margin, we should be looking at 48-50.

So with a target in half a season of 28-30 points, compared to a half season total of 20 points we would need to perform as well in the second half of the season as Bolton, Fulham and Birmingham have, in the first half of the season, to survive.

My glass is half full at this time.

2012-13

http://www.statto.com/football/teams/brighton-and-hove-albion/2012-2013/table/2012-12-22

I think it will be more difficult this season and 56 pts will be needed.

If we have the same form as the second half of last season we will get 57 pts. And we will have to do this by just after Easter as our last three games are losers.

Attention to detail will be key. And Nathan Jones won't be able to do it on his own without extra management recruitment. Wholesale changes won't work either as it will mean losing vital points in transition.

Much as I don't like the style of Hughton, this may or may not lead to a seamless transition.

 

[TheJasperCo]

More points than the teams around us. Simple as.

 

[perseus]

Failure to Plan (Plan to Fail)

More points than the teams around us. Simple as.

Predict

Wigan 48
Millwall 46
Leeds 48
Huddersfield 48
Rotherham 48
Reading 49
Charlton 51

So we might get away with 49 pts minimum.

Just been through the fixtures and with losing at Fulham, I could see us possibly getting 48 pts before the last three matches. A sporting chance.

I will think it will hinge on correct decision making during games. Acumen. Quick incisive decisions, talent rather than experience. We will need a bit of luck with injuries to key players.

Brain McDermott is the only Manager that could be considered a scoop. I think he is the only one who could do it!

 

[jimbob5]

It's getting to the point where the next manager debate may be meaningless, unless it's Jesus.

What? Half way through the season and 4 points from safety? They don't need a miracle they just need to put in a few shifts!

 

[Coldeanseagull]

I personally don't think we need to worry about the relegation spots. I reserve the right to change my view at easter

 

[jimbob5]

I personally don't think we need to worry about the relegation spots. I reserve the right to change my view at easter

Would you care to explain the logic behind that?

 

[Silent Bob]

2013-14 : 44 points Birmingham survive - Doncaster go down with 44 points but worse goal difference
2012-13 : 55 points (yikes!) Barnsley survive - Peterborough go down with 54 points
2011-12 : 48 points Barnsley survive - Portsmouth go down with 40 points
2010-11 : 48 points Doncaster survive - Preston North End go down with 42 points

I thought it would be interesting to look at how things stood at the halfway stage of each of those season for comparison with now.
2014/15: Millwall 23, Wigan 20, Brighton 20, Blackpool 13

2013/14: Doncaster 21, Sheff W 19 (with a game in hand), Yeovil 17, Barnsley 16
2012/13: Sheff W 21, Barnsley 21, Bristol City 19, Peterborough 19 (Wolves who went down in 23rd with 51 points were 13th with 31 points)
2011/12: Bristol City 21, Nottingham Forest 21, Doncaster 19, Coventry 16 (Portsmouth were 17th with 27 points)
2010/11: Middlesbrough 24, Scunthorpe 23 (w two games in hand), Palace 22, Preston 19 (Sheffield United went down in 23rd with 42 points, they were 20th with 25 points)

So for the last four seasons two of the bottom three at this stage of the season have gone down. In 2009/10 all three went down. In 2008-9 only one did, but all three that did were in the bottom five at this stage. The points totals don't really seem to give as much of a clue to how many were needed to stay up as you'd think they would.

1 more than 21st really does seem to be the best thing to aim for.

 

[el_ciddy]

What? Half way through the season and 4 points from safety? They don't need a miracle they just need to put in a few shifts!

Needs quite a significant turnaround compared to the first half of the season, games are running out, we're not far from panic stations!

 

[perseus]

Us getting 48 pts prediction means losing just one of the home games.