[Football] Permutations in England's group

[Simster]

It seems to me that a draw against Uruguay might not be a total disaster for England, although it would be for Uruguay.

Assuming we draw tomorrow, that would leave us 3rd, level on points with Uruguay but with a better GD. In a nutshell, that would simply mean it is likely that a win over Costa Rica would see us through. The only way that isn't the case is:

a) if Costa Rica beat Italy in their second round game. Anything else, and we'd finish above them by beating them (head-to-head trumps goal diff and goals scored). If that happens, we'd be praying for Uruguay to beat Italy final game, all teams to finish on 4 points and England's goal diff to be good enough to finish in the top two.
b) if Uruguay beat Italy by a margin of 2+ goals better than England beat Costa Rica
c) if Uruguay beat Italy by a margin of one goal better than England beat Costa Rica, and score more goals in the process.

I don't see any of a, b or c happening and a draw would be OK for us, but terrible for Uruguay.


Have I got that right or am I missing something?

 

[blockhseagull]

I don't think head to head does trump GD

 

[strings]

The ranking of each team in each group shall be determined as follows:

a) greatest number of points obtained in all the group matches;
b) goal difference in the group matches;
c) greatest number of goals scored in the group matches.

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their ranking will be determined as follows:

d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;
e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;
f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;
g) drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

I don't think head to head does trump GD

Correct.

 

[Munkfish]

GD Is first and formost, then goals scored, then a head to head.

 

[vegster]

It seems to me that a draw against Uruguay might not be a total disaster for England, although it would be for Uruguay.

Assuming we draw tomorrow, that would leave us 3rd, level on points with Uruguay but with a better GD. In a nutshell, that would simply mean it is likely that a win over Costa Rica would see us through. The only way that isn't the case is:

a) if Costa Rica beat Italy in their second round game. Anything else, and we'd finish above them by beating them (head-to-head trumps goal diff and goals scored). If that happens, we'd be praying for Uruguay to beat Italy final game, all teams to finish on 4 points and England's goal diff to be good enough to finish in the top two.
b) if Uruguay beat Italy by a margin of 2+ goals better than England beat Costa Rica
c) if Uruguay beat Italy by a margin of one goal better than England beat Costa Rica, and score more goals in the process.

I don't see any of a, b or c happening and a draw would be OK for us, but terrible for Uruguay.


Have I got that right or am I missing something?

Best permutation is for England to win their next two matches. If we are good enough to do that we go through, if not, I'm not bothered with the minutiae of just trying to hang in The World Cup for the sake of it.

 

[smeg]

Best permutation is for England to win their next two matches. If we are good enough to do that we go through, if not, I'm not bothered with the minutiae of just trying to hang in The World Cup for the sake of it.

Why not state the obvious Correct me if I'm wrong but Simster is just trying to evaluate all the options, not whether we are good / bad enough or if you are bothered.

 

[Simster]

So this is the revised scenario:

It seems to me that a draw against Uruguay might not be a total disaster for England, although it would be for Uruguay.

Assuming we draw tomorrow, that would leave us 3rd, level on points with Uruguay but with a better GD. In a nutshell, that would simply mean it is likely that a win over Costa Rica would see us through. The only way that isn't the case is:

a) If Costa Rica beat Italy in their second round game. If that happens, we couldn't overhaul them and would need Italy to fail to beat Uruguay final game. And unless Uruguay win that one, we would actually need to win against Costa Rica by at least 2 goals .
b) Costa Rica draw with Italy. We'd then need to beat them by at least 2 goals to overtake Costa Rica. That would do it, as long as Uruguay don't win by 4+ goals against Italy.
c) if Uruguay beat Italy by a margin of 2+ goals better than England beat Costa Rica
d) if Uruguay beat Italy by a margin of one goal better than England beat Costa Rica, and score more goals in the process.

 

[sydney]

i think we may well beat uruguay .....costa rica i ain't too sure....they seem to be a very quick , attacking team......i would love to see us qualify but the defeat to italy is something i didn't see coming....not confident at all.....

 

[Seagulls1984]

Still lose against uruguay , and hope italy win both there games and a good win against Costa Rica would see us through.

 

[Mellotron]

All looking pretty good actually. Costa Rica beating Uruguay could be a MASSIVE help, I doubt it'll matter though because if we play anything like we did against Italy 6 points is nailed on from our final 2 games.

 

[Puppet Master]

So basically, we really need Italy to beat Costa Rica and us to avoid defeat to Ur A Gay?

Have I got that right?

 

[Napper]

So if Italy v rica is a draw and we draw with Uruguay then We can go through by beating rica by 2 goals

 

[TopCat]

The ranking of each team in each group shall be determined as follows:

a) greatest number of points obtained in all the group matches;
b) goal difference in the group matches;
c) greatest number of goals scored in the group matches.

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their ranking will be determined as follows:

d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;
e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;
f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;
g) drawing of lots by the FIFA Organising Committee.

Hope if it goes to option g) we have a suitably sized suitcase of cash ready

 

[Puppet Master]

So if Italy v rica is a draw and we draw with Uruguay then We can go through by beating rica by 2 goals

Yes.

 

[Puppet Master]

Yes.

Unless U R Gay thrash Italy.

I think.

 

[Napper]

Didn't realise Italy v rica is day after us .

 

[The Modfather]

Fully expect us to qualify with 6 points, but a point against Uruguay & three against Costa Rica should also see us through

 

[BensGrandad]

If we lose against Uraguay we will fly home but hopefully we will beat them and they will beat Italy putting all teams on 3 points for the last games.

 

[KJP]

If we lost to Uruguay we can still go through providing Italy win both their games and we beat Costa Rica