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Now, who's our biggest threat?



BRIGHT ON Q

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
9,248
Fulham flying at the moment, looked very good at the Amex the other week. They will be in amongst it.
 




larus

Well-known member
I see Villa sneaked a 1-0 win at home to Wigan with a goal in the 88th minute.

If they are serious about auto's, then that's the type of game they need to win convincingly. 5 point gap to Reading (who have a tough set of fixtures over the next few months) and a further 4 points to Huddersfield (who I don't see mounting a serious challenge for the top 2).
 






spence

British and Proud
Oct 15, 2014
9,953
Crawley
Derby win they go 5th.
 








Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,089
Goldstone
Have to say reading and derby currently
[re Fulham] They can't defend though, that will be their undoing
A large chunk of Reading's points appear to be attributable to luck. But they're closest on points, can they improve with some transfer window deals?
And can Fulham fix their defence in January?
 






Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
17,770
Fiveways
Not worried about anyone else. Just concentrate on our own performances.

My view is that, if it happens, we need to keep this squad together (TB has already said that this won't happen if we don't go up). What we'll need is quality additions, rather than quantity. We've got strength in depth in the squad, what we'd need is goalkeeper, full-backs, attacking mid, and striker(s).
 






warmleyseagull

Well-known member
Apr 17, 2011
4,383
Beaminster, Dorset
Villa will probably need to win at least another 17 games - it is uncommon to get auto with less than 50% games won, although their draw mountain might count in a tight finish. 17 wins from 26 is possible but challenging, and they lose three players to African Nations next month. TBH, if Wigan had held on today, I would be close to writing them off for auto.

Norwich have probably lost too many games already -and concede way too many. Jan window might get them going but think they have lost too much ground in last 8 games, just 4 points.

Fulham concede a lot but they have great firepower; it is easier to shore defence than find goalscorers and they could be a threat if they sort defence. I was very relieved to squeeze three points from them.

Reading are, IMO, a little over-rated. Staam is making excellent use of resources but not convinced they have the quality to stay the pace for another 26 games. Three of their next four opponents are Leeds, Norwich and Fulham, If they are within 5 points of second place after that, would have to change my mind.

Huddersfield only in top 6 on back of great start. Won only 3 of last 10. Mid table beckons. Ditto Brum to a lesser degree - won only 2 of last 7.

Leeds - MEH. The recent form that was bigged up on here was against lower opposition and Norwich on bad run.

Thought SW might show more then they have so far. Not very consistent but a dark horse if they put it together.

That leaves Derby, who IMO are a threat simply because they dont concede and you always have a chance if that is the case, as we are showing. They have scored only 17 but 10 in last 5. I'm a Forest supporter today.

But as others have said, the real danger is that we stop doing what we have been doing well. Got four games against sides in bottom half or, in case of Brum, on not such good form, in rest of month. I think we could win all four, and if we do, I really would see the promised land beckoning. Guess one significant signing next month with Kayal & Rosenior back as almost extra signings giving some freshness in case of loss of form/injury.
 


kevo

Well-known member
Mar 8, 2008
9,800
Villa will probably need to win at least another 17 games - it is uncommon to get auto with less than 50% games won, although their draw mountain might count in a tight finish. 17 wins from 26 is possible but challenging, and they lose three players to African Nations next month. TBH, if Wigan had held on today, I would be close to writing them off for auto.

Norwich have probably lost too many games already -and concede way too many. Jan window might get them going but think they have lost too much ground in last 8 games, just 4 points.

Fulham concede a lot but they have great firepower; it is easier to shore defence than find goalscorers and they could be a threat if they sort defence. I was very relieved to squeeze three points from them.

Reading are, IMO, a little over-rated. Staam is making excellent use of resources but not convinced they have the quality to stay the pace for another 26 games. Three of their next four opponents are Leeds, Norwich and Fulham, If they are within 5 points of second place after that, would have to change my mind.

Huddersfield only in top 6 on back of great start. Won only 3 of last 10. Mid table beckons. Ditto Brum to a lesser degree - won only 2 of last 7.

Leeds - MEH. The recent form that was bigged up on here was against lower opposition and Norwich on bad run.

Thought SW might show more then they have so far. Not very consistent but a dark horse if they put it together.

That leaves Derby, who IMO are a threat simply because they dont concede and you always have a chance if that is the case, as we are showing. They have scored only 17 but 10 in last 5. I'm a Forest supporter today.

But as others have said, the real danger is that we stop doing what we have been doing well. Got four games against sides in bottom half or, in case of Brum, on not such good form, in rest of month. I think we could win all four, and if we do, I really would see the promised land beckoning. Guess one significant signing next month with Kayal & Rosenior back as almost extra signings giving some freshness in case of loss of form/injury.

That's a pretty good assessment and sums up how I feel about most of our rivals. Derby under Mcclaren are the biggest threat I think, then Villa if they put a long winning run together (which they are capable of doing), and then Reading. Fulham and Sheff Weds :)lol:) also shouldn't be written off. Can't really see any other teams being in contention for the autos.
 


GoldWithFalmer

Seaweed! Seaweed!
Apr 24, 2011
12,687
SouthCoast
Super battleship Villa are just over the horizon,one can only see the mast(thro the binoculars) at the moment,she poses some big guns and well armored,but if she slips past Norwich her shadow will grow larger and larger......

Since the thread has started she has cut the deficit to 14 points.......we will have to engage her(probably late in the battle) at some stage and lets hope she has not had too major a refit in January..
 




Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,089
Goldstone
Derby
 


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,089
Goldstone
Super battleship Villa are just over the horizon,one can only see the mast(thro the binoculars) at the moment,she poses some big guns and well armored,but if she slips past Norwich her shadow will grow larger and larger......

Since the thread has started she has cut the deficit to 14 points.......we will have to engage her(probably late in the battle) at some stage and lets hope she has not had too major a refit in January..
I disagree, let's hope she has had the biggest ever January refit, and that with her new big guns she topples over and sinks to the bottom of the Solent.
 


Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
Yes that final one could be a worry. Take Murray out of the equation, and one wonders where the goals are going to come from.

January could be a crucial month, both in terms of results on the pitch, and in terms of recruitment.

Hemed scored 17 goals last season and it's only because Murray is scoring so well at home, that's keeping him from starting. We also suffered when Baldock was injured. He does a lot more than people give him credit for.
 


GoldWithFalmer

Seaweed! Seaweed!
Apr 24, 2011
12,687
SouthCoast
I disagree, let's hope she has had the biggest ever January refit, and that with her new big guns she topples over and sinks to the bottom of the Solent.

:lol: been watching discovery too much have i,as for Derby they currently lack firepower,it's all about us,we are now in the position i feel where we absolutely simply have to sign a striker-Murray is ever present and top scorer,Hemed can step in but what if we lose (important goal) Baldock..

Any team that strings a run after January can be in with a chance,our 5 point lead can wiped out in an instant..
 




Iggle Piggle

Well-known member
Sep 3, 2010
5,948
Derby. Even earlier on the season when they weren't playing well they were getting shots off - just not scoring and their conversion ratio was worst in the league (a couple of years ago we related to that). Fully expect them in Top 4.

Villa looked good against us but the club is a basket case and some of their signings were eye wateringly bad. Mccormack is almost finished and James Chester at 9m? I wouldn't touch him with couterfeit at that price. Play offs yes but automatic no and lets not forget Gary Gardner gets a game in midfield.

As for the rest, the transfer window and xmas period will give us a good idea of what's what. At this stage I'd say Sheff wed and Norwich closely followed by Reading.
 


GoldWithFalmer

Seaweed! Seaweed!
Apr 24, 2011
12,687
SouthCoast
Hemed scored 17 goals last season and it's only because Murray is scoring so well at home, that's keeping him from starting. We also suffered when Baldock was injured. He does a lot more than people give him credit for.

Agree,in fact he is (this season) the reason we are not sitting in 5th right now.
 


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