[Brighton] Mythical points total. How may do we need in reality?

[redoubtable seagull]

Villa stayed up last season with 35 points.
37 points have been enough to finish 17th in 17 of the last 24 seasons.
36 points have been enough in 11 of the last 24 seasons.

We have 13 points from 16 games. Can we get between 22 and 25 points in our remaining 22 fixtures?

On reflection that seems doable but would require us to win 6 or so games plus a handful of draws.

What do the sages of NSC think?

 

[BNthree]

Complete guess but reckon 37/38 would be enough this season.

 

[blockhseagull]

34 is the magic number this year

 

[WATFORD zero]

Apparently these are the stats for the Premier League. Points/Relegation/Staying up

40 99% 1%
39 98% 2%
38 94% 6%
37 85% 15%
36 69% 31%
35 49% 51%
34 18% 72%
33 13% 87%
32 5% 95%
31 1% 99%

 

[blue-shifted]

We've played enough games that we can extrapolate the points total required with a decent degree of accuracy, (though the clubs involved might not be the same)

Fulham are on 0.73 ppg and we're on 0.81ppg

This would translate into the 18th place team having (rounding up) 28 points.............. Meaning a historic low of 29 is currently on course to do it.

Experience suggests, managers will be sacked and players bought etc, so lets (rather unscientifically) add another win onto that.

32 points will get us safe (blue-shifted says with authority and self belief)

This means we need 19 points from our remaining 22 games.

P22 W4 D7 L11 will do it

It won't be a comfortable ride mind

 

[NooBHA]

34 is the magic number this year

I think a team could stay up this year with as little as 32 points.