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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread



BLOCK F

Well-known member
Feb 26, 2009
6,723
Wife has just tested positive on a lateral flow test, but I am negative at the moment.However, I shall be exceedingly lucky if I don’t get it. We’ve both been double jabbed.
We are off to get PCR’d later this morning��

My wife has now finished her period of isolation and is feeling fine. In fact, she had very mild symptoms and has felt worse during a cold.
So far, I have escaped the lurgy and long may it stay that way.
 






crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
14,062
Lyme Regis
what exactly do you suggest a "firebreak" would consist of? the article seem to suggest a two week lockdown.

Depends on just how much stress the NHS is under but I'd imagine it would include masks in all public settings, reintroducing 1m+ social distancing legal requirements and possibly banning indoor gatherings in private homes with people outside your household bubble.
 


dsr-burnley

Well-known member
Aug 15, 2014
2,625
Depends on just how much stress the NHS is under but I'd imagine it would include masks in all public settings, reintroducing 1m+ social distancing legal requirements and possibly banning indoor gatherings in private homes with people outside your household bubble.
The problem is, you're pushing old people back into more or less total isolation. A lot of them don't have a bubble, and if they do it is very limited.

We know that old people are going to die soon. Over 85 years old, you have about a 1 in 10 chance of not making it to this time next year. Now, we know that 300,000 people over 85 won't make it to next September, and that at the current rate this number might be increased to 310,000 if coronavirus goes unchecked.

But for someone who has a 10% chance of dying no matter what, is it worth essentially giving up another 6 months of their short remaining life to increase the odds of getting even older by 0.3%?
 


e77

Well-known member
May 23, 2004
7,270
Worthing
Must confess I probably stood 3 feet away from complete strangers whenever possible before anyone had heard of Covid so not entirely sure that is much hardship!
 




Poojah

Well-known member
Nov 19, 2010
1,881
Leeds
I’m a little surprised that more hasn’t been made of this today; suggestions that somewhere in the region of 75% of Covid hospital admissions are unvaccinated. There’s a crucial distinction to be made between those who haven’t been vaccinated of their own volition and those who can’t be for medical reasons, but that figure if correct is quite striking.

Genuine moral question: do you continue to lock down the entire population (if the burden on the NHS becomes substantial enough) and do you cancel operations / deprioritise cancer patients etc for those who opt against vaccination? That sounds like a loaded question, but I mean it genuinely.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58494842

https://youtu.be/_d9kg46icC0
 


nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
18,574
Gods country fortnightly


Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
62,683
The Fatherland
So. How does one get the Janssen vaccine in the UK…asking for a friend.
 




middletoenail

Well-known member
Jul 2, 2008
3,580
Hong Kong




Herr Tubthumper

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 11, 2003
62,683
The Fatherland






Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
58,792
hassocks
[MENTION=3385]crodonilson[/MENTION]

You are slipping

300k cases a day unless we vaccinate kids

D9DA88F9-25CD-4D6E-893F-76DFD38A2E6C.pngD9DA88F9-25CD-4D6E-893F-76DFD38A2E6C.png
 


crodonilson

He/Him
Jan 17, 2005
14,062
Lyme Regis
[MENTION=3385]crodonilson[/MENTION]

You are slipping

300k cases a day unless we vaccinate kids

View attachment 140272View attachment 140272

This no laughing matter, there are now more than 8,000 (eight thousand) people in hospital with covid and that is set to rise significantly within a matter of days as the impact of schools, workers and Universities return. There will be no peak and then downturn this time either, as we go through winter cases will remain incredibly high for many months and some hospital services are already stretched to breaking point in September.
 




atomised

Well-known member
Mar 21, 2013
5,170
This no laughing matter, there are now more than 8,000 (eight thousand) people in hospital with covid and that is set to rise significantly within a matter of days as the impact of schools, workers and Universities return. There will be no peak and then downturn this time either, as we go through winter cases will remain incredibly high for many months and some hospital services are already stretched to breaking point in September.

So the vaccine has failed completely then?
 




dsr-burnley

Well-known member
Aug 15, 2014
2,625
This no laughing matter, there are now more than 8,000 (eight thousand) people in hospital with covid and that is set to rise significantly within a matter of days as the impact of schools, workers and Universities return. There will be no peak and then downturn this time either, as we go through winter cases will remain incredibly high for many months and some hospital services are already stretched to breaking point in September.
No peak and no downturn? So what will actually happen when the number of cases reaches 66 million per day? Quite apart from the difficulty of measuring whether someone who tests positive on consecutive days, has caught the virus twice or just caught it once and not yet shaken it off.

Even to take this model seriously, they are suggesting 10 million people per month catching this disease; which would be half the population over a three month period. Remember that people don't count twice unless their tests are three months apart, so there's no possibility (E&OE) of double counting the same infection. If they have evidence that either the delta variant or the imagined new variant is as infectious as that, it isn't in the public domain.

I think I can tell where their 300,000 cases has come from. During the last 4 days, the average week-on-week increase has been about 13-15%. This was caused because the Bank Holiday Monday figures were particularly low, so all last week the figures were 1,000 per day artificially low and this week they are 2,000 per week artificially high. That's about 10 percentage points of the 14% difference. But if we assume that the low Bank Holiday figures was nothing to do with the low numbers of tests (less than half the number of tests this Monday), and we assume the low positive tests were genuinely because the virus took the Bank Holiday off, then the virus increased by 14% last week,

And extrapolate that 14% till December 31st, and we get 300,000 cases per day.

Of course, they are saying that extending the vaccine to those aged 12-15 (about 5% of the population) will make a 20% difference to the number of hospitalisations and deaths, and presumably then to the number of cases. So they are saying that if we do vaccinate 12-15 year olds, we will only have 240,000 cases per day. Phew. That's all right then. For a moment I thought they were talking silly figures that couldn't possibly come true. :mad:
 


Kinky Gerbil

Im The Scatman
NSC Patron
Jul 16, 2003
58,792
hassocks
This no laughing matter, there are now more than 8,000 (eight thousand) people in hospital with covid and that is set to rise significantly within a matter of days as the impact of schools, workers and Universities return. There will be no peak and then downturn this time either, as we go through winter cases will remain incredibly high for many months and some hospital services are already stretched to breaking point in September.

Who is laughing?

I think it’s a disgrace these people are down playing it, if we don’t start jabbing under 12s as soon a we can we will certainly see it rise to 700k (Seven Hundred thousand) a day.

We need to call the army in to start the process.
 




nicko31

Well-known member
Jan 7, 2010
18,574
Gods country fortnightly
So the vaccine has failed completely then?

The vaccine is a success across the developed world, but its 80% effective and there are still a lot of people unvaccinated, its not a silver bullet and we are still in the middle of a global pandemic

In the UK Covid deaths have almost quadrupled since so called freedom day, cases are stubbornly high and hospitalisations are still rising....all this after the summer holiday period which is the best season of the year for infection spread. We have failed to use the summer to get things in check

There's an air of complacency and this is amplified by government. We need to see proper leadership, we need mitigations, we need a proper plan and we need to act fast or Johnson will be battling the experts to save Christmas for a second year running.
 




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