Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[beorhthelm]

As you say Pneumonia has a variety of risk factors, not just viral. However if someone dies in hospital with pneumonia having caught Covid-19 it is fair to assume they would have lived longer if they hadn't caught Covid-19 to start with.

also fair chance a bout of flu would have done for them too. important point about the Fullfact article, which i think they may misrepresent, is the 22k number is excess deaths.

 

[e77]

On average, each of the 146,000 people who died with COVID-19 lost 10.2 years of life. Source

 

[dsr-burnley]

On average, each of the 146,000 people who died with COVID-19 lost 10.2 years of life. Source

You can safely ignore that estimate, which is utter statistical bilge. What they have done is work out the average years of life lost, based on the assumption that the people who died were in average health for their age. They have then used that figure to "prove" that the people who died were in average health for their age.

 

[beorhthelm]

On average, each of the 146,000 people who died with COVID-19 lost 10.2 years of life. Source

i have a feeling of deja vu or been over that sites numbers before. there's an awful lot of people with multiple comorbidities living in to their late 80's-90's if you take that at face value.

 

[e77]

Interesting though this dance round cause of death and how long people would have lived is, I suspect it all fairly academic because basically everything will be more or less back to normal on the 19th regardless.

 

[Stuart Munday]

I don’t see how we can get completely back to normal on the 19th. I’m sure most decent companies wouldn’t let this happen but potentially you could have a massive office like Canary Wharf opening with thousands of staff returning, no masks on the tube, or in crowded lifts and it sounds like there would be no requirement to keep the desks apart, half the office would have Covid within a week.

 

[dsr-burnley]

I don’t see how we can get completely back to normal on the 19th. I’m sure most decent companies wouldn’t let this happen but potentially you could have a massive office like Canary Wharf opening with thousands of staff returning, no masks on the tube, or in crowded lifts and it sounds like there would be no requirement to keep the desks apart, half the office would have Covid within a week.

You're assuming the vaccines don't work?

 

[The Clamp]

I don’t see how we can get completely back to normal on the 19th. I’m sure most decent companies wouldn’t let this happen but potentially you could have a massive office like Canary Wharf opening with thousands of staff returning, no masks on the tube, or in crowded lifts and it sounds like there would be no requirement to keep the desks apart, half the office would have Covid within a week.

That's why we have been vaccinated. At some point we have to trust the jabs. More people are going to die of Covid in the years to come. People are going to have to deal with it.

Companies will open up offices again, tubes and trains will be packed, people will be out and about. Quite right too.

 

[The Clamp]

Apropos of nothing, going back and reading the first few pages of this thread is both interesting and rather frightening in that so many (including me) had no idea what was on it's way. It's made me feel al little bit odd.


"Find it amazing how the Chinese authorities have shut down that city. Imagine a city the size of London being on lock down!"

This one made me stop and think.

 

[dazzer6666]

I don’t see how we can get completely back to normal on the 19th. I’m sure most decent companies wouldn’t let this happen but potentially you could have a massive office like Canary Wharf opening with thousands of staff returning, no masks on the tube, or in crowded lifts and it sounds like there would be no requirement to keep the desks apart, half the office would have Covid within a week.

As well as the vaccination effect, it won't work like that at all anyway. Even pre-covid, desks in (using your example) 1 Canada Square (the big pointy building) were barely 50% occupied on our floors even at 'busy' times (flexible working, holidays, travelling etc) but all of the big firms based there and in the other blocks have extensive flexible working arrangements already and these have been and will continue to be extended so occupancy will be way below capacity. Arrival and departure times will also be more flexible for those going in. In my old firm (c10,000 people in one building notionally) desks have also been reconfigured to accommodate distancing. I suspect 'masks on public transport' will continue to be a 'recommendation' if not a rule post 19/7.

Given probably 80%+ have been vaccinated, how would half end up with Covid within a week ?

In other news, this is interesting - put your own region in the drop-down to see % of beds occupied by Covid patients since Nov 2020 by NHS trust - annoyingly though the Brighton and Sussex data is incomplete

https://t.co/gMjXZ1ioXT?amp=1

 

[e77]

Masks have little or no effect if people are packed tightly together, as happens on commuter trains to London, and even if vaccines downgrade Covid to bad flu territory it is still quite nasty. I get the whole we have to return to normal thing but equally if all legal restrictions are lifted I hope employers exercise common sense and let people come into the office later to reduce the strain in rush hour.

We shall see but I imagine it will vary.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Masks have little or no effect if people are packed tightly together, as happens on commuter trains to London, and even if vaccines downgrade Covid to bad flu territory it is still quite nasty. I get the whole we have to return to normal thing but equally if all legal restrictions are lifted I hope employers exercise common sense and let people come into the office later to reduce the strain in rush hour.

We shall see but I imagine it will vary.

I would have thought that if the vaccines downgrade covid to bad flu territory, then we should take the same precautions as we did for bad flu. Which didn't involve any form of lockdown, as I remember. I agree that staggered working hours will arrive, but having seen the state of the tube trains at Canary Wharf in normal times (ie. platform was rammed, and we couldn't squash onto a train until the third one came along because the trains were stuffed to capacity) it'll take more than that to reduce congestion.

Tip for anyone who wants to cross London on a route that involves Canary Wharf at 8.30 - don't do it!

 

[e77]

I would have thought that if the vaccines downgrade covid to bad flu territory, then we should take the same precautions as we did for bad flu. Which didn't involve any form of lockdown, as I remember. I agree that staggered working hours will arrive, but having seen the state of the tube trains at Canary Wharf in normal times (ie. platform was rammed, and we couldn't squash onto a train until the third one came along because the trains were stuffed to capacity) it'll take more than that to reduce congestion.

Tip for anyone who wants to cross London on a route that involves Canary Wharf at 8.30 - don't do it!

To be honest we should now start doing things that we should have been doing for years with hindsight. Trying to get everyone into London - or other major cities no doubt - for 0900 on packed trains and tubes and home again at 1700 when public transport is half empty the rest of the day doesn't really make much sense (although that would involve timetable changes).

Up until now if someone felt the had a bit of a cold coming on they tended to still go to work so not to be accused of pulling a sicky, hence causing the rest of the workplace to go down with it. If someone can do their job from home then that needs to change.

Perhaps we should have all been wearing face coverings during flu season?

 

[Yoda]

As well as the vaccination effect, it won't work like that at all anyway. Even pre-covid, desks in (using your example) 1 Canada Square (the big pointy building) were barely 50% occupied on our floors even at 'busy' times (flexible working, holidays, travelling etc) but all of the big firms based there and in the other blocks have extensive flexible working arrangements already and these have been and will continue to be extended so occupancy will be way below capacity. Arrival and departure times will also be more flexible for those going in. In my old firm (c10,000 people in one building notionally) desks have also been reconfigured to accommodate distancing. I suspect 'masks on public transport' will continue to be a 'recommendation' if not a rule post 19/7.

Given probably 80%+ have been vaccinated, how would half end up with Covid within a week ?

In other news, this is interesting - put your own region in the drop-down to see % of beds occupied by Covid patients since Nov 2020 by NHS trust - annoyingly though the Brighton and Sussex data is incomplete

https://t.co/gMjXZ1ioXT?amp=1

Try looking at University Hospitals Sussex NHS Foundation Trust

BSUH & WSHT merged earlier this year.

East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust are still on there as are still a separate organisation.

 

[dazzer6666]

Try looking at University Hospitals Sussex NHS Foundation Trust

BSUH & WSHT merged earlier this year.

East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust are still on there as are still a separate organisation.

Cheers

 

[Stuart Munday]

You're assuming the vaccines don't work?

Im sure vaccines do work as the cases seem to be going up but hospital admissions are low, but as mentioned elsewhere I can never see things going back to normal, most decent companies will still keep desks apart and arrange staggered/flexible working arrangements and hopefully half the country leaving and returning to their homes the same time will be a thing of the past.

 

[atomised]

Try looking at University Hospitals Sussex NHS Foundation Trust

BSUH & WSHT merged earlier this year.

East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust are still on there as are still a separate organisation.

Very interesting to see it so clearly

 

[beorhthelm]

Im sure vaccines do work as the cases seem to be going up but hospital admissions are low, but as mentioned elsewhere I can never see things going back to normal, most decent companies will still keep desks apart and arrange staggered/flexible working arrangements and hopefully half the country leaving and returning to their homes the same time will be a thing of the past.

trouble is people dont want to work much later into the evening or get up much earlier in the morning. so we'll only shift commuting by about an hour either side of 9-5. in places like London that'll mean 2-3 hours of near full trains, tubes, and buses, vs an hour of overcrowding. working from home will make far more impact than changing hours.

 

[crodonilson]

Cases now up a staggering 72% week on week, there was a hope that coming up to 19th July at very worst the growth would be slowing from the approx 40% weekly growth when Boris announced the extension to restrictions. I can't see how with cases now rapidly accelerating we can consciously reopen society completely, just what on earth would that do to cases rates and ultimately hospitalisations?? Certainly at the very least I think if he is to drop the 2m distancing (bad move) other mitigations must remain in place. ALso these Euro super spreader events, as much as it is a joy to see supporters in stadia, there is no distancing, no mask wearing, no bubbles, the government should be seriously looking at the decision to raise capacity, if anything it should go back to the 25% capacity employed across the majority of Europe.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Cases now up a staggering 72% week on week, there was a hope that coming up to 19th July at very worst the growth would be slowing from the approx 40% weekly growth when Boris announced the extension to restrictions. I can't see how with cases now rapidly accelerating we can consciously reopen society completely, just what on earth would that do to cases rates and ultimately hospitalisations?? Certainly at the very least I think if he is to drop the 2m distancing (bad move) other mitigations must remain in place. ALso these Euro super spreader events, as much as it is a joy to see supporters in stadia, there is no distancing, no mask wearing, no bubbles, the government should be seriously looking at the decision to raise capacity, if anything it should go back to the 25% capacity employed across the majority of Europe.

Or, if you are worried after the 19th you can stay away from those places, wear a mask, Social distance ?