Clown.
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
Clown.
Yea thats very simplified. Of course its a valid question, its relevant to EVERYONE (well... almost everyone) and locking people up for 12-18 months until this vaccine maybe comes is just not possible.
It is...but there is evidence there are errors in how new cases and how deaths are being counted. There is evidence the errors are different from one country to the next. However the data I have collected from John Hopkins suggests the errors are internally consistent from one day to the next for each country. This allows a calculation of the trajectory of the disease, although it does not help in determining the exact numbers of deaths or cases, and it gives no clue as to how many people have had the disease without getting ill.
Stay safe! Someone aged over 100 made a recovery in the UK today - this is always hope.
Mr Banana
Tedious chump
Notoriously reactionary career politician who characteristically sees entire subjects through their narrow personal prism presents sweeping statement as fact shocker.
AZ Gull
@SeagullsAcademy @seagullsacademy.bsky.social
Small but interesting study reported in the New England Journal of Medicine - the Columbia University Irving Medical Center in New York had a pregnant patient who tested positive for the virus on March 13 2020 and so they decided to test EVERY pregnant woman who was treated. Between March 22 and April 4 they tested 215 women, only 4 of whom presented Covid-19 symptoms upon admission. These 4 did indeed test positive....but so did a further 29 (13.7%) who were asymptomatic.
Universal Screening for SARS-CoV-2 in Women Admitted for Delivery
Universal Screening for SARS-CoV-2 in Women Admitted for Delivery
29 out of 33 positive cases were asymptomatic. 87%. That is good news.
We obviously expect the asymptomatic rate to be higher in younger people and you would assume a group of pregnant women to be relatively young in the grand scheme of things. Still, it’s yet more data to chuck onto the pile re: asymptomatic cases. Thanks for that.
Icy Gull
Back on the rollercoaster
- Jul 5, 2003
- 72,015
When challenged over her comments Ms Dorries, who has herself recovered from coronavirus, attempted to clarify them saying: "I said society needs to adapt. It would be more helpful to talk about 'relaxing lockdown' than constantly demanding an 'exit strategy'.
"My point being, some of you guys need to start asking more intelligent questions."
Someone had to say it and whatever you think of her this comment is spot on. It’s like fecking groundhog day watching the questions and comments on BBC Breakfast and other daily programmes.
"My point being, some of you guys need to start asking more intelligent questions."
Someone had to say it and whatever you think of her this comment is spot on. It’s like fecking groundhog day watching the questions and comments on BBC Breakfast and other daily programmes.
Wrong-Direction
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2013
- 13,632
My misses is currently saying goodbye to her nan whilst wearing a mask and gloves. She'll be back on the frontline tomorrow with no PPE.
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Sent from my SM-A600FN using Tapatalk
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
Asymptomatic at presentation. However 10% of these cases went on to develop coronavirus. Still good though.
So 26 out of 33 - that actually brings it more in line with the 50-80% range we are seeing elsewhere. The data improves every day, this helps.
Wrong-Direction
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2013
- 13,632
Partners nan is 80 and extremely frail, went into hospital day before lockdown with huge tumour on bowel, caught the virus in there, was sent home yesterday to die. She's asymptomatic.
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Sorry to hear this.
Hmmm.....we can all think about an exit strategy, but not an implementation date, yet. So if she is criticising those who are asking when the exit strategy is to be implemented she's correct. However, when you reduce your point to a tweet it is bound to be ambiguous.
That said, Nadders was very much in favour of an EU exit strategy (Brexit), though, 'slamming' Theresa May in a laughable outburst https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...it-deal-leave-remain-jk-rowling-a8639216.html
So I'm not all that clear why posting a Nadders tweet on this thread is particularly useful. May as well post the Covid views of Paul Scholes, or 'H' from Steps.
Edit - Radio 5 have deemed the wisdom of Nadders sufficiently important to report the tweet (without any comment) so thanks for posting. I hadn't realised what an important national leader she evidently is.
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Are you saying they sent her home because she has the virus and have effectibely washed their hands of her? That's totally unacceptable.
Wrong-Direction
Well-known member
- Mar 10, 2013
- 13,632
No she hasnt eaten hardly anything for almost a month due to the tumour and wouldnt survive surgery, been deteriorating each day and no family has been able to see her. They said yesterday she has 24-48hrs left so sent her home so people could say they're goodbyes in a place of comfort.
Hoping shes past the stage of infection
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- Jul 10, 2003
- 27,753
These sort of situations are hard at the best of times, and with everything else going on particularly with your partner's work, it must make it worse.
Thoughts are with you, your partner and her family.
ManOfSussex
We wunt be druv
I'm no fan of Nadine Dorries and I didn't need her clarification, because I took her original tweet in that context anyway when I read it, but I struggle to see why there is any outrage at it or newsworthiness in it.
I certainly don't like it to put it mildly, but we are going to have to adapt for the short to medium term. That just seems blatantly obvious to me and this a non story.
'Normal' is a long way off until then and the new 'normal' may be very different to the old when it arrives.
Anyway, Captain Moore does actually happen to be one of her constituents and that's who I'll be thinking about today.
I'm no fan of Nadine Dorries and I didn't need her clarification, because I took her original tweet in that context anyway when I read it, but I struggle to see why there is any outrage at it or newsworthiness in it.
I certainly don't like it to put it mildly, but we are going to have to adapt for the short to medium term. That just seems blatantly obvious to me and this a non story.
'Normal' is a long way off until then and the new 'normal' may be very different to the old when it arrives.
Anyway, Captain Moore does actually happen to be one of her constituents and that's who I'll be thinking about today.
I too read the tweet as she intended it. So often the sensationalist side of the media have seemed determined to paint lockdown and social distancing measures as the same thing and unfortunately the target audience have panicked in exactly the way you would expect
I thought it might be useful to look at how ordinary flu waxes and wanes diring the year. In the northern hemisphere it disappears naturally by late spring. This is not due to 'herd immunity'. It simply doesn't seem to like the change in season. What vaccination does is greatly lower the numbers of people who get ill. It doesn't prevent flu happening because not everyone gets the vaccine, nor does it affect the timecourse (appearance of new cases over time) substantially.
What this means is that if COVA is similar it should be on the wane now, 'naturally'. As it seems to be. Not a reflection of clever intervention and national or global strategy - it is happening worldwide (see posts above).
Normal influenza peaks in the northern hemisphere (new cases) around January. COVA peaked later this year because it is a new virus in humans and the pandemic didn't start poperly till late February.
So it all sort of fits for me. Here is a quote from the Medscape website:
"In tropical areas, influenza occurs throughout the year. In the Northern Hemisphere, the influenza season typically starts in early autumn, peaks in mid-February, and ends in the late spring of the following year. The duration and severity of influenza epidemics vary, however, depending on the virus subtype involved.
The World Health Organization estimates that worldwide, annual influenza epidemics result in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths. In the United States, individual cases of seasonal flu and flu-related deaths in adults are not reportable illnesses; consequently, mortality is estimated by using statistical models" end quote.
What we can't anticipate yet is how COVA will look next time. If it is like ordinary flu, 'next time' for us will start in September, probably with a new variant requiring a new vaccine. I am inclined to feel that when we have a vaccine it needs to be rolled out to a far greater proportion of the population than the vaccine for ordinary flu.
What this means is that if COVA is similar it should be on the wane now, 'naturally'. As it seems to be. Not a reflection of clever intervention and national or global strategy - it is happening worldwide (see posts above).
Normal influenza peaks in the northern hemisphere (new cases) around January. COVA peaked later this year because it is a new virus in humans and the pandemic didn't start poperly till late February.
So it all sort of fits for me. Here is a quote from the Medscape website:
"In tropical areas, influenza occurs throughout the year. In the Northern Hemisphere, the influenza season typically starts in early autumn, peaks in mid-February, and ends in the late spring of the following year. The duration and severity of influenza epidemics vary, however, depending on the virus subtype involved.
The World Health Organization estimates that worldwide, annual influenza epidemics result in about 3-5 million cases of severe illness and about 250,000 to 500,000 deaths. In the United States, individual cases of seasonal flu and flu-related deaths in adults are not reportable illnesses; consequently, mortality is estimated by using statistical models" end quote.
What we can't anticipate yet is how COVA will look next time. If it is like ordinary flu, 'next time' for us will start in September, probably with a new variant requiring a new vaccine. I am inclined to feel that when we have a vaccine it needs to be rolled out to a far greater proportion of the population than the vaccine for ordinary flu.