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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
Not to mention that the cut off has always been 9am anyway not 1pm so the tweet is incorrect
Birdie Boy
Well-known member
- Jun 17, 2011
- 4,400
So have the figures come out this morning then? I haven't seen any.
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Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
The Tweet is pretty stupid. It may reduce the figure for ONE day, but after that the numbers would not change in the govts favour. Who is that person, I am not impressed by their intelligence.
From the Times I think
Not as yet. It did suggest there may not be figures released today so time will tell re the accuracy of the whole tweet
I don't read it that they are suggesting that the numbers are being changed in the government's favour, just stating a (presumed) fact that the government are looking at changing the way numbers are reported (possibly as a result of the difficulty of getting reliable numbers in a crisis situation?)
No real need for your indignation.
Edit: And in fact tweet 2/2 makes it clear that is what they meant
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
I'm afraid I have to disagree. As unless the categorisation for qualifying as a 'coronavirus' death has changed, the numbers will even out anyway. Over 2 days the number was heartening when many were expecting a far larger jump upwards. I think he's possibly gone for a reaction with a click-baitish tweet.
Kalimantan Gull
Well-known member
Jeez, 38 years old. The more the stories of younger people dying come out, the more I'm shitting myself....
Kalimantan Gull
Well-known member
Deaths will go up and down, its the number of new cases and new hospital admissions we need to look at for the trend and working out if we've hit the 'peak
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
Yes, I agree. But the tweet was based upon the number of deaths and whether the govt was massaging them in their favour. My friend from the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine is looking at numbers of cases as he said like you, the death rate (whilst catching the headlines and a rate which is emotive for obvious reasons) is too clumsy an instrument for seeing the pattern well.
I didn't read it that way, to me he's just offering a reason why the number seems weirdly low. I genuinely don't see the ulterior motive you clearly do, but we'll have to agree to disagree I suppose.
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
Perhaps I should just take what he said on the surface. I think part of my reaction was due to the hysterical replies from many people who are determined to make political points or to promote some kind of conspiracy theory.
It is, but the way in which we (so far at least) haven't followed the same spike as Italy/Spain, despite doing so earlier, does at least feel positive.
As regards the daily stats, changing the 24 hour period used to calculate them doesn't matter over time clearly - if yesterday is lower because (in part) it's 12 hours or whatever instead, the prior or subsequent period simply includes the rest. At this stage each day taken in isolation isn't hugely meaningful - the trend is the key.
Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
Exactly. To me, the trend, although only one of a few days, was encouraging. The tweet appeared to paint that in a negative way.
The fact it IS a story that a 38 year old has died reminds us how very rare it is.
That's how I'm looking at it.....on a normal day, several blokes my age will die from heart attacks (for example). The chances of it being me are statistically really tiny and a heart attack is still FAR more likely than Covid-19 - and I can limit the risk of the latter still further by not going out.
Blue Valkyrie
Not seen such Bravery!
A not very cheery read, but the data people behind this know their stuff ( predicted Johnson's landslide [ on another Twitter account ] when everyone else was predicting a hung parliament ).
So, believe or don't believe, and take your pinches of salt if you want.
As said, not cheery :
https://twitter.com/peoptog/status/1243123003636035584?s=19
So, believe or don't believe, and take your pinches of salt if you want.
As said, not cheery :
https://twitter.com/peoptog/status/1243123003636035584?s=19
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Kalimantan Gull
Well-known member
along with the 21-year old girl yesterday, the 37 year-old deputy ambassador.... there's others....
get the point, but its perhaps not as rare as we were led to believe at the beginning, and we have to remember that only a small proportion of the population has so far come into contact with this virus
We don't know that at all.