Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Hastings gull]

Yes. 'Discussed'. What he said was that in the coming weeks (i.e., at some point in the future) over 70s would be asked to self isolate. The 'for up to 4 months' comes from "When pushed on whether they could be asked to isolate for up to four months, he said: "That is in the action plan, yes. And we will be setting it out in more detail when that's the right time to do so, because we appreciate it is a very big ask of the elderly and vulnerable, and it's for their own self-protection."

My take is that people may be asked to self isolate, and if this happens there will be a plan in place to ensure that folk aren't left isolated to starve to death. He didn't say that, of course. Neither did he say "who knows what the **** will happen to them when we lock them in their own homes without support" either.

All of this is along the lines of 'we cannot rule anything in, or anything out, and decisions will be made at the appropriate times'.

In other words, as I have said repeatedly, they don't know what they are doing. Yet.

Alos, the health secretary is clearly qualified to discuss medical matters. Before entering politics, Matt worked for his family business. He studied philosophy, politics and economics at Exeter College, Oxford and economics at Christ's College, Cambridge. He was an economist at the Bank of England before becoming an economic advisor (and later chief of staff) to George Osborne.

There you go everyone - the expert on governmental matters has given his advice. End of thread.

 

[herecomesaregular]

We will have a higher death rate then China, much higher. Italy will over take them in a few days too, they've added nearly another 400 deaths today. They are running at around 7% death rate. But if you just do sums on the cases that have ended and have an outcome, they are at 43% death rate. Only 2335 have recovered. Eye watering figures.

My understanding is that the seriously ill need WEEKS of treatment on a ventilator so that would indicate that those so far with an "outcome" have pulled through quickly or sadly died quite quickly - I think that may distort this "43 % death rate"?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The problem is the world is in this mess because of the corrupt dictatorship in China and the corrupt ever-changing shitfest in charge of Italy.

I don't deny the corruption or the dictatorship, but I suspect we will find that the virus originated because some idiot sniffed a chicken in a Wuhan street market, a chicken that had eaten the pangolin that had been bitten by the bat with Covid-18. Medaevil practices in the villages, practices the dictatorship is trying to see off.

The Italians spread it via close contact at evening meals, the ones where everyone slaps one another saying things like 'Don't speak-a to you momma like-a that'.

 

[vagabond]

Coronavirus / Covid-19

I understand that argument IF those told to stay isolated at home don’t do as they are told. If however those over 70 are told to self-isolate and the vast majority are obedient then they won’t catch it until the period of isolation ends at which point the whole group, 10 million or so, become likely to be infected within a short period putting an even bigger strain on the NHS.

So if the advice to self-isolate is announced should we 70+ citizens just ignore that advice? I have to say I’m of that mind.

I don’t think that’s how they’re strategising herd immunity here.

Whilst the 70+ are self quarantined the under 70 population will be out and about and eventually get infected.

We (the under 70s) will mostly fight off the Coronavirus as we’re younger and naturally have slightly healthier bodies. Some with health problems may die. The ones left fight off the virus and become immune.

Now after a set time, the 70+ population end their quarantine, but are now interacting with a population that 99% do not carry the covid virus, and its spread falls to irrelevant numbers.

I think this may be the theory, but interested if anyone has other possible ones? Boris wouldn’t have done this let’s be honest. So we’re putting our faith in the hands of the best of British science.

 

[Wozza]

Yes. 'Discussed'.[SNIP]

Oh, your message above seemed to imply that the idea came from the Radio 5 chat. "People are just making stuff up"

I think it's perfectly reasonable for a radio station to discuss something which has been suggested by a senior member of the government.

I also heard Colin Murray's show. Didn't sound sensationalist to me.

BTW, it's the lead story on the BBC - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news - and many other places.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I think Boris said a couple of weeks ago the best plan was for most of us to get infected. Seems the UK plan. We are on our own with that

 

[CliveWalkerWingWizard]

Up until a few days ago, my opinion was that the government were following a sensible and informed course of action. Although not admitted I believe that part of the plan is to develop herd immunity in the population. Countries such as China are likely to have a second wave of infections. If the figures are correct 80,000 infections in a few billion leaves the rest of the population vulnerable.
I also think that effect on the economy is also put into models, ultimately if the economy crashes there will be a lot more indirect deaths.
If policy is solely based on mathematical models it is incredibly dangerous, even though most will have mild symptoms there will be many apparently healthy younger people who will need hospitalisation. Our icu provision will be at breaking point in a short time. If our nhs was better South Korea appear to be the country that have got this sussed. We can’t replicate them as their health provision is much better than ours.

I think we just need to follow our European neighbors, I expect our health service will be at breaking point in 2 weeks.

 

[Swansman]

I think Boris said a couple of weeks ago the best plan was for most of us to get infected. Seems the UK plan. We are on our own with that

Nah we're with you

 

[Triggaaar]

I don’t think that’s how they’re strategising herd immunity here.

Whilst the 70+ are self quarantined the under 70 population will be out and about and eventually get infected.

We (the under 70s) will mostly fight off the Coronavirus as we’re younger and naturally have slightly healthier bodies. Some with health problems may die. The ones left fight off the virus and become immune.

Now after a set time, the 70+ population end their quarantine, but are now interacting with a population that 99% do not carry the covid virus, and its spread falls to irrelevant numbers.

I think this may be the theory

I bloody hope not. For 99% of those of us under 70 to be immune, due to having had it, then about 55 million of us need to get it. If we manage that in 6 months (so a good chunk longer than the 4 months being touted as a quarantine time for the over 70s), then we'll be getting over 2 million new infections per week. Holy shit that's one ****ed country right there.

 

[Bakero]

I see what you did there a total contradiction from me, lol

Your comment was too ridiculous to warrant a response. Go back, look at the numbers and think about it.

 

[SK1NT]

I don’t think that’s how they’re strategising herd immunity here.

Whilst the 70+ are self quarantined the under 70 population will be out and about and eventually get infected.

We (the under 70s) will mostly fight off the Coronavirus as we’re younger and naturally have slightly healthier bodies. Some with health problems may die. The ones left fight off the virus and become immune.

Now after a set time, the 70+ population end their quarantine, but are now interacting with a population that 99% do not carry the covid virus, and its spread falls to irrelevant numbers.

I think this may be the theory, but interested if anyone has other possible ones? Boris wouldn’t have done this let’s be honest. So we’re putting our faith in the hands of the best of British science.

This all makes sense however if someone can get the virus twice, or it mutates over this time will the over 70s have to go into quarantine again... we still don't know enough about this virus...

 

[Wozza]

Oooh, get you...

 

[Wozza]

Nice idea...

https://twitter.com/Paul_Doherty__/status/1239233239820238848?s=20

[tweet]1239233239820238848[/tweet]

 

[beorhthelm]

under the surface government may have more action going on, they have banned parallel export of a range of drugs. anti-malaria and anti-rumatism (oddly) ones are reported being trialed in China with positive response. on bad side number of rumours indicating ibuprofen is bad, makes reaction to virus worse.

 

[Swansman]

Nice idea...

https://twitter.com/Paul_Doherty__/status/1239233239820238848?s=20

[tweet]1239233239820238848[/tweet]

Terrible idea. They should stay home and even if they dont they shouldnt gather in hundreds somewhere.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Poor Italy. Let's hope we don't go that way. Spoke to my cousin today. Food shops open and Pharmacy, plenty of food. They live in a village about 50km from Naples, no cases where they live or surrounding villages. Hoping to see those numbers come down in the North over the next 10 days so at least the country can get some control.

 

[Wozza]

Terrible idea. They should stay home and even if they dont they shouldnt gather in hundreds somewhere.

Doubt there would be 100s anywhere. And there's no isolation policy here - yet.

 

[Creaky]

I don’t think that’s how they’re strategising herd immunity here.

Whilst the 70+ are self quarantined the under 70 population will be out and about and eventually get infected.

We (the under 70s) will mostly fight off the Coronavirus as we’re younger and naturally have slightly healthier bodies. Some with health problems may die. The ones left fight off the virus and become immune.

Now after a set time, the 70+ population end their quarantine, but are now interacting with a population that 99% do not carry the covid virus, and its spread falls to irrelevant numbers.

I think this may be the theory, but interested if anyone has other possible ones? Boris wouldn’t have done this let’s be honest. So we’re putting our faith in the hands of the best of British science.

How long do you suppose it will be before 99% of the under 70 population are infection free? From all accounts there is likely to be a vaccine before that happens.

In any case if 1% of the under 70 population are still infectious that is 500,000 people - release 10 million unprotected and vulnerable people from ‘quarantine’ into that population and you are simply asking for another spike in numbers, all high risk individuals.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I bloody hope not. For 99% of those of us under 70 to be immune, due to having had it, then about 55 million of us need to get it. If we manage that in 6 months (so a good chunk longer than the 4 months being touted as a quarantine time for the over 70s), then we'll be getting over 2 million new infections per week. Holy shit that's one ****ed country right there.

And the case fatality rate currently estimates around 250000 deaths in that under 70s cohort.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I don't deny the corruption or the dictatorship, but I suspect we will find that the virus originated because some idiot sniffed a chicken in a Wuhan street market, a chicken that had eaten the pangolin that had been bitten by the bat with Covid-18. Medaevil practices in the villages, practices the dictatorship is trying to see off.

The Italians spread it via close contact at evening meals, the ones where everyone slaps one another saying things like 'Don't speak-a to you momma like-a that'.

In my experience of the Chinese you are right but they got to sniff the dodgy chicken because the chicken was dodgy thanks to bribes paid to a local party member. Whoever was in charge of the people that allowed that wet market should be tried for crimes against humanity. They won't though.

And yes, if you were going to try to control an outbreak Italy is the last place you'd want to try it in. Not only the meal slapping but the youngsters snogging each other and then going home to Nonna before they all turn up to communion on a Sunday and drink out of the same cup