Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[dingodan]

I am no expert in this field - so make of this what you like, it is just my opinion.

Herd Immunity - What a load of old Bollocks!!! Please stop clinging to this embarrassing phrase, it just will not happen.

We are talking about a virus that was capable of jumping species and then spreading rapidly. I think it is going to mutate and develop multiple strains, which is what flu does. In all likelyhood, people who have been infected will have some immunity to the original strain, but mutations?

Deep Mind the UK AI capability Google acquired has had a go at cracking the protein structure. Reading through some of this and with my limited understanding, it felt like trying to predict a snooker match. Right now we can safely say that even on a bad day Ronnie O'Sullivan would beat me 10 frames to nil every day for a week. Where we need to be on this to be able to develop a vaccine, is to be able to accurately predict the position of every ball 20 shots into a frame. Resources put behind this, will be almost limitless, it is still going to take time to develop a vaccine.

If there is no sign of a vaccine, a policy of mass isolation, feels like a political response, rather than a containment strategy. Except of course, as we are seeing, whether it is sport, music the arts or just going on holiday. Which is worst a blanket ban or lots of chaotic last minute cancellations as performers and or venues are unable to get healthy people in the right place at the right time? I would argue that the spread of the virus should not be the only consideration here in terms of directing government policy.

Respiratory problems, in theory should be less of an issue in dry warm summers, versus damp cold winters, except for atmospheric pollution. So will we see restrictions on vehicle usage over the summer, or are we just happy to let the vulnerable die?

If you are an expert advisor to the government, you have two choices, walk away immediately they do something you don't agree with, or hang around hoping you can gain more influence inside the camp as things progress. If nothing else you will probably get a knighthood out of it. Don't for a minute believe that in these circumstances the experts are either in agreement or leading the direction of travel.

Your first sentence is appropriately humble.

The rest of your post flies in the face of your first sentence.

As for the end of your post, two questions,

1. Are you saying the the government expert advisors are speaking under duress, saying things they don't believe? In the hope of a Knighthood?

2. If they are not leading the direction of travel, if we are not really being guided by the science, who do you think is leading the direction of travel? and guided by what?

 

[peterward]

To a certain extent it depends on how long it takes to develop a vaccine OR effective drug treatments. Whilst the vaccine may be a year or so, it could be that remdesivir, for example, works well and could be used when the quarantine is ended.

The Americans will ramping up production of Remdesivir for themselves

 

[peterward]

How many testing positive for CV today? I reckon it will be 180

They're not testing anymore. It's just self isolate if you have symptoms.

Testing only to be done in hospitals to stop community spread in hospitals. Joe public is now on their own, unless the NHS111 website offers any comfort?

 

[nicko31]

Over 900 new cases in Spain today and still tonnes of flights in and out from the UK every day. It will be the new Italy shortly.

 

[Wozza]

Pretty mad, really...

 

[Wozza]

They're not testing anymore. It's just self isolate if you have symptoms.

Our best measure of the spread will now be.... how many sports star/celebs get it (and make public), and how many friends/family get it?

 

[Grombleton]

Pretty mad, really...

View attachment 120987

UK with Nil Points yet again.

 

[Stumpy Tim]

Pretty mad, really...

View attachment 120987

I see Australia aren´t on that list. I wonder why

 

[CheeseRolls]

Your first sentence is appropriately humble.

The rest of your post flies in the face of your first sentence.

As for the end of your post, two questions,

1. Are you saying the the government expert advisors are speaking under duress, saying things they don't believe? In the hope of a Knighthood?

It isn't duress it is policy evolving against a limited set of data, driven by political exigency. On the whole I think the direction of travel is neither right or wrong.

2. If they are not leading the direction of travel, if we are not really being guided by the science, who do you think is leading the direction of travel? and guided by what?

See above

 

[Nobby]

Have I heard this right...for a “ herd” to become immune there needs to be 60% coverage of people getting it. ( chief medical officer last night). They are also predicting 3% mortality rate.

That is a death rate of 1,1 million people.

Now that cannot be right as presumably the 66 million should discount children possibly?

These are astronomical rates .

Of course no one knows, but Johnson’s theme seemed to be...people will die..shit happens.

To be honest, I’m a bit pissed off that I’m part of an experiment

 

[Mellotron]

Our best measure of the spread will now be.... how many sports star/celebs get it (and make public), and how many friends/family get it?

It already feels like a disproportionately high number of Celebs are getting it, but that's because they are the ones able to be tested.

 

[Nobby]

Carefully.

And I don't mean that facetiously.

They were facing a situation that was moving out of control. They have bought time, can now prepare, with a lot more information as to what is needed and begin to open up again in a staged and controlled way.

But they haven’t done anything

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

To be honest, I’m a bit pissed off that I’m part of an experiment

I just find it odd that our gkvernment's best science is starkly at odds with many other nearby countries best science. Strongly suspect it's got far more to do with economic reasons than health reasons. Heartening to see that very many sporting organisations, many of them fiercely profit-driven, are prepared to override our government advice and take the economic hit for the greater good

 

[Nobby]

Your first sentence is appropriately humble.

The rest of your post flies in the face of your first sentence.

As for the end of your post, two questions,

1. Are you saying the the government expert advisors are speaking under duress, saying things they don't believe? In the hope of a Knighthood?

2. If they are not leading the direction of travel, if we are not really being guided by the science, who do you think is leading the direction of travel? and guided by what?

As Rory Stewart said earlier, this course of action is not being dictated by science, otherwise we would be following South Korea’s model.
This course of action is being driven by the potential lack of resources in a few weeks time.

 

[Mellotron]

I suspect we will see slowly more stringent social distancing measures over the coming weeks/months, with perhaps eventually a full lockdown of 2 weeks just prior to when they expect the "peak" to hit - perhaps May/June.

I can understand the logic behind this - getting people to prepare over time, enabling an easier transition into isolation, reduces panic whilst getting an idea as to NHS capabilities as the situation progresses etc.

There will have to be an element of "holding the nerve" at points though.

 

[GOM]

To be honest, I’m a bit pissed off that I’m part of an experiment

Everyone in every country is in an experiment. There is no right or wrong way to deal with this as far as we know yet, every country is trying it their own way.

 

[peterward]

I suspect we will see slowly more stringent social distancing measures over the coming weeks/months, with perhaps eventually a full lockdown of 2 weeks just prior to when they expect the "peak" to hit - perhaps May/June.

I can understand the logic behind this - getting people to prepare over time, enabling an easier transition into isolation, reduces panic whilst getting an idea as to NHS capabilities as the situation progresses etc.

There will have to be an element of "holding the nerve" at points though.

Been to the supermarket today. Went to aldi and big Tesco, it's like never before. Not just handwash, bog roll and pasta.....everything packet/tinned is virtually gone.

There was a little old man behind in the Tesco, looked about 85-90, immaculately dressed with a small basket. He said to us "I don't understand it, why are people buying so much water when we can drink it from the tap" our reply is their panicking, he turned round and said "I've been coming here every Friday for years to buy a newspaper, a loaf of bread and a tin of carrots, today there are no carrots"

The Mrs was welling up, this is one small reality of this dog eat dog behaviour

 

[Nobby]

I just find it odd that our gkvernment's best science is starkly at odds with many other nearby countries best science. Strongly suspect it's got far more to do with economic reasons than health reasons. Heartening to see that very many sporting organisations, many of them fiercely profit-driven, are prepared to override our government advice and take the economic hit for the greater good

The course of action is driven by health reasons.

But I would love to see some sort of stats on the relative ability of each nations health service to cope with the virus, prior to it starting.

We know that we are towards the bottom of the league in relative critical care beds.
We know that the NHS has been woefully underfunded and is currently in a poor state to deal with this.

So my belief is that this current course of action (or inaction), Is being driven by the shortage of critical care beds in our country relative to many other countries.

Hence the policy of sorry, you’re on your own Jack, unless you get really ill, when we might hopefully be able to do something for you, as long as we haven’t been completely overwhelmed by that stage.

We are where we are currently, but with historically more investment, we might just have been able to save a few more lives than we are going to be able to do. And that makes me sad.
None of this is Johnson’s fault though, even if I hate his guts, he is just playing the cards he has been left with.

If people want to dismiss this as just another political post, then fine. But politics is about serving your people, and we have been let down by a lot of our previous politicians.

 

[Nobby]

Been to the supermarket today. Went to aldi and big Tesco, it's like never before. Not just handwash, bog roll and pasta.....everything packet/tinned is virtually gone.

There was a little old man behind in the Tesco, looked about 85-90, immaculately dressed with a small basket. He said to us "I don't understand it, why are people buying so much water when we can drink it from the tap" our reply is their panicking, he turned round and said "I've been coming here every Friday for years to buy a newspaper, a loaf of bread and a tin of carrots, today there are no carrots"

The Mrs was welling up, this is one small reality of this dog eat dog behaviour

It’s an absolute disgrace


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[Birdie Boy]

I get all this isolation, so as not to affect the elderly and people with respiratory issues but if for instance my son, 24, who still lives at home with me was to get it, shouldn't I as a healthy 51 year old isolate myself with him to try and catch it. We will then get over it and have immunity and get on with our lives?I

My question arises after watching a film on the BBC website of a man in Wuhan that films his life as his wife gets the virus. He gets all dressed up in a suit and cleans the apartment. I'm struggling to think why we would not want to catch it, it we are healthy.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-asia-china-51858226/coronavirus-life-inside-china-s-lockdown